A League of Unpredictability

By Stefi Kaplan
Posted Monday, September 24, 2007

Last week, I came across this SI article, which simultaneously confirmed and denied everything I thought about the 2007 MLB season. To be sure, it’s been a crazy season, but the Mets have had such tumultuous waves of greatness and ineptness that I haven’t paid much attention to the rest of the league. As it turns out, the Mets are not alone.

As Jon Heyman points out, it appears that this will be only the second season since World War II where no team will finish with a winning percentage above .600 or below .400. It’s pretty amazing considering the hot starts of teams like Boston and Milwaukee. And look at all the teams the Mets are expected to dominate. Truth be told, those teams are not losing as much as they have in the past. The parity in the league this year is unprecedented.

Even before reading this article, I had a hunch that there was greater parity, at least in the National League. Obviously, no team was dominating the way the 2006 Mets had. But I’d always looked at it as mediocrity more than anything else. I felt that the Mets’ failure to win more games this year was a result of their shortcomings more than anything else. And I still think that is true to an extent, but there is at least a valid argument that the competition has gotten tighter and the spoiler teams are winning more than they have in the past.

The disparity in revenue is not as great as it had been in the past. These days, many quality players sign for a hometown discount prior to reaching the free agent market (e.g., Roy Oswalt). And even if they reach the free agent market, small market teams are shelling out the money to pick them up (e.g., Gil Meche, A.J. Burnett, B.J. Ryan). There truly aren’t any walkover teams, as the Mets have learned this week against the Nationals and the Marlins. As much as the Mets should be beating those teams, both teams can be tough. The Marlins have a pesky offense and would win many more games if the players could learn how to field a ground ball. The very fact that the Marlins have won two World Series in their short period of existence says a lot about how the league has changed in recent years. And the team has followed up its championships with fire sales to trade away its talent for young prospects in an effort to keep the team young and cheap. If just a few of those prospects pan out (like Hanley Ramirez), the team is in the World Series again.

We can’t discount injuries either. The Mets, Yankees, Phillies and Red Sox have all had their share of injuries this year. It is difficult to expect the makeshift lineups to go out there and win every day. The Mets may have steamrolled the competition last year, but it was tough to imagine them doing so again with the loss of Duaner for the full year, Green, Alou, Beltran, Delgado, Pedro, El Duque, Lo Duca, Endy Chavez, Carlos Gomez, Lastings Milledge, Ben Johnson, Burgos, Valentin, Easley, Vargas, Ollie Perez, Dave Williams, Ramon Castro and Jorge Sosa, all of whom landed on the DL at some point this year. And don’t forget the 50 game suspension to Mota earlier in the year. And that is just off the top of my head – I wouldn’t be surprised if there are plenty of others. Without their full team, the Mets are certainly closer in talent to some of the other teams in the league. And believe me, I’m not making excuses for their poor performance this past week, but perhaps the Mets aren’t so far below where they should be right now.

It is interesting to note that the two teams with the lowest winning percentages in MLB are the Devil Rays and the Orioles, both of which are in the AL East. There really is no excuse for the Yankees or the Red Sox, despite the number of times they face each other, not to win at least 60 percent of their games. The Mets, like Boston, have done pretty well against the bottom feeders of their East competition, but have struggled against the West. The Yankees, on the other hand, are just .500 against those bottom feeders in the East, but are still a solid bet for the playoffs.

The result of all this is that there is no clear favorite this year. Teams have shown flashes of brilliance followed by discouraging slumps, just like the Mets have all season long. It has been a trying year for many teams and regardless of who sips the final glass of champagne, there will be buzz about whether that team really deserved to be there (See 2006 St. Louis Cardinals).

But that is great for baseball. It is great for teams in smaller markets. Great for the players. It also could drive fans into insane asylums, especially big market fans. With high payrolls, we place the blame on our team for every game they lose. And that’s fair to a certain extent. But maybe, just maybe, the National League is not mediocre. Maybe the talent in the National League (and the MLB in general) is more widespread than it has ever been before, making it more difficult for a team to break away from the pack. Maybe some of these no-name rookie pitchers are the Santanas and Peavys of tomorrow.

So while it makes us want to rip our hearts out in despair to watch the Mets blow a 7-game lead in September, the truth is we shouldn't be all that surprised when we look at what's going on around the league. That shouldn't make us feel any better, but it does put things in perspective. Right now, if you were to tell me that the Kansas City Royals would face the Washington Nationals in the 2008 World Series, I might not scoff at the idea quite the same way I would have last year. I'd at least have a hard time convincing you that you are wrong. Because there is just no predicting what will happen at this point, with all of the teams so close in talent and performance. And that, my friends, is what makes baseball so great. And a little bit heart attack provoking.

David Wright has enjoyed a fantastic 2007 and is a candidate for NL MVP honors. Related info: Discuss, Already !