A Look at Mike Pelfrey

By Matt Himelfarb
Posted Saturday, July 18, 2009

One of many memorable scenes from Bull Durham is when minor league lifer Crash Davis is studying the promising, yet erratic Ebby “Nuke” LaLoosh and notices his shoes have fungus on them. “You’re shower shoes have fungus on them”, Crash says. “You’ll never get to the bigs with fungus on your shower shoes… If you win 20 in the Show you can let the fungus grow back on your shower shoes and the press'll think you're colorful. Until you win twenty in the Show, however, it means you're a slob.

By the same token, if Mike Pelfrey ever becomes a fixture in New York, we will look back at him slamming his fist in the dugout last night the same way Yankees fans reminisce about Paul O’Neill. We’ll talk about his competitiveness. His fire. His intensity.

Right now, however, that looks like a pipe dream following his abysmal outing last night. Pelfrey continues to be plagued be his propensity to issue balks and is unable to find a rhythm on the mound. As a result, Pelfrey, at best, is the young hurler unable to control his emotions. At worst, he is immature. Bad makeup. Slow.

Pelfrey’s problems are undoubtedly mental. After failing to make any significant progress with his secondary stuff in his tenure with the Mets, he probably has zero confidence in the Mets coaching staff. Whatever words of wisdom Dan Warthen offered him after his three run first inning last night, Pelfrey’s expression indicates it went right through him. After all, it was under Rick Peterson’s tutelage that he scrapped his curveball in favor a slider entering 2007. Instead of taking the time to hone his skills, Pelfrey became a predominantly fastball pitcher with a show-me slider, in the interest of getting to the big leagues quicker, only to have his curveball return late last year. The lack of a consistent approach has certainly hindered his development.

In addition, he continues to be plagued by his inability to find any rhythm. Early on last night, he worked painfully slow again- stepping off the mind, adjusting his hat, etc. Why Dan Warthen didn’t come out at all in the first inning is beyond me; with six percent playoff odds, they are more interested in crafting next year’s rotation I guess. A frustrated Pelfrey actually worked very quickly entering the fourth, hitting 95 mph on the gun and retiring the Braves in order. Further, his earned runs are often concentrated over one inning.

The Braves exploited more than his emotions last night, though. He mostly worked in the 90-92 mph range, even while throwing his two-seamer (sinker) less than ten percent of the time- less than his changeup and slider. Only when he started throwing around 94-95 mph last year did he pitch well down the stretch. As Joe Janish of Mets Today told me: “He'll never hit 97 with his release point where it was tonight. It was a good 5-7 inches above / higher than it should be, and he needs that extra momentum and leverage to reach his top speed. (It's all about physics!)”

His velocity, however, has been low most of the year, and he has pitched decent overall (4.15 FIP). His real Achilles heel is leaving both his two-seamer and four-seamer up in the zone. Pitch f/x data doesn’t seem to show this, but anyone who watched last night’s game knows he was either overthrowing or struggling with his command. Despite this, he still maintains good horizontal movement on both pitches.

Perhaps Pelfrey’s becoming more comfortable with his secondary stuff, although he may just be compensating for his struggling fastball. His changeup is below average, and it lacks consistent velocity from not throwing it enough. His slider looked respectable last night, but it’s wasn’t enough. A perfect example is Martin Prado’s at-bat in the third inning. Prado, a rising star but more importantly a smart hitter, fought off Pelfrey’s slider until he inevitably tried to fool him with the fastball, which Prado crushed for a solo shot.

Overall, Pelfrey’s has numerous adjustments to make. If he can get his velocity up and find some consistency, he can make a solid number three or even two starter. But if he wants to be more, he will have to vastly improve his secondary stuff. One thing’s for certain: there should be nothing holding him back the rest of the year.

You can contact matt at matthimelfarb@gmail.com