A Tale of Two Trades

By Matt Himelfarb
Posted Monday, June 18, 2007

Comprehensive descriptions are continuously abused in the world of baseball writing. Detailed analogies and figurative language beyond comprehension are abhorred in a day in age where a Microsoft Spreadsheet is just as likely to tell you all the info you need.

Sure, Aaron Heilman has blown leads whenever and wherever he's taken the field. He's also blown leads at home and on the road, and has blown leads on grass and on turf at virtually the same rate. But, in short, I see a 5.14 ERA in June, a drop-off in strikeout rate of about five percent, and a BABIP that suggests Heilman has actually quite been quite a bit lucky this year.

But here's a form of writing that baseball fans that've come to despise either enjoy: it's called the ability to travel back in a time capsule and be the hero who dissipates every bad trade and free agent acquisition ever made.

When the Mets dealt Heath Bell and Royce Ring in return for Ben Johnson and Jon Adkins, I can, with complete honesty, say that I smelled an inclusive disaster to come out of it, the same way I feel when I'm given a lot of artistic materials to work with. Ring's ability to induce ground balls, as well as his laid back California attitude, gave him the potential to fit the role of 6th or 7th inning guy, while Johnson's versatility, I felt, drew fairly accurate comparisons to that of Jay Payton.

But with Bell, I knew that Omar and Co.'s lack of reliance on statistics would finally backfire. I understand, especially now with Billy Wagner's advice to Heath Bell, that when guys have no room, guys have no room. But some further examination told me that what Omar and Co. should've done is made room for Taco Bell, because it's blatantly obvious that a change of scenery isn't what has made the difference for Bell.....

Bell's BABIP (batting average per balls in play), which was .391 in 2005, only to be outdone by a whooping .401 in 2006, ballooned above the league average. It was easy to see that he was due for some serious regression to the man following 2006, and Bell serves as a fantastic example as to why Voros McCracken's theory of DIPS works so well. Bell also got an unjust bad rap because many people claimed that he wasn't a clutch pitcher, evident by his BRAA (Batting Runs Above Average) which was - 6.68. This unfairly deteriorated his trade value even more.

Last but not least, Bell's peripherals, which are exactly what a pitcher can completely control, were outstanding. This included an 8.59 K/9 rate, and a 2.68 BB/9 rate. Having seen this, it's easy to say that Bell's resurrection was all but inevitable.

But what to make of the deal that sent Brian Bannister to Kansas City for Ambiorix Burgos? Bannister's 90 mph fastball and decent cutter serving as his complementary pitch never exactly raised tremendous hopes for his future, but his 2.91 era. while unlikely to be kept up with, looks a lot better than Burgos's elbow right now.

Now, this was the deal that I did like. I felt that that there was a very good chance Bannister would make a nice living off being a fourth or fifth starter, but with Burgos, you got the high strikeout rates, and the chance that The Jacket could work out the rough spots. Having not shown any signs of elbow problems upon the completion of the trade, I was fairly confident that the Mets had pulled off a solid deal.

But, in context, the Royals really were sending damaged goods to the Mets.

I'm not libeling in any sort of way when I say Burgos certainly has some character issues, something that as we all know the Mets put a lot of emphasis on. These issues included things like he wouldn't be watching the game in the bullpen during the early innings because he was more interested in doing his thing (whatever that was). Allegedly, he didn't get along with many coaches, particularly his bullpen coach. Since he's left, a number of Royals, including Mike Sweeney, have alluded to the team shedding some dead weight. He was rumored to think that since he was a successful rookie in 2005, he was due something, and in thinking so, he rubbed some of the veterans in the wrong way.

Of course, its pure speculation as to whether this was the exact reason the Mets sent Burgos to AAA. But having known this, Royals GM Dayton Moore's emphasis on tools and makeup, such as the case with Angel Berroa, and the Mets bullpen struggles, it's a very strong possibility.

Now, as I mentioned in my article last week, makeup can be very overrated and talent must triumph character issues in almost every case. But here's a guy that, more than anything, needed a little bit of coaching, and to ignore it he was doing himself a disservice.

So, turning back the clock might be nice, but in this case, it wasn't even necessary.

You can contact Matt Himelfarb at: matthimelfarb@gmail.com and check out his blog: www.cyclonesnation.wordpress.com

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