A Year Of Destiny

By Mike McGann
Posted Tuesday, September 4, 2007

See, I told you it would be fine. Two weeks ago, I told you if the Mets managed to maintain their lead after the Padres and Dodgers’ series, because the numbers begin to be too difficult for the Phillies. Despite that awful sweep at Citizens Bank Park, the Mets bounced back, killed off the Braves and restored their lead to five games.

As I write this, Tuesday afternoon, the Mets’ magic number is 21. Any combination of Mets wins and Phillies losses equalling 21 gives the Mets the NL East title. Going back how I explained it a couple of weeks ago, if the Mets go 10-15 from here on out (unlikely, based on the remaining schedule, but work with me, here) and the Phillies go 14-11 the rest of the way, it’s over and the Mets clinch on the final day of the season. But consider this: if the Mets go 15-10, the Phillies can go 19-6 the rest of the way, including last night’s games and STILL LOSE THE DIVISION. The numbers are even worse for the Braves, who will need a miracle to win the Wild Card, let alone the division.

So despite the frustration of the last couple weeks — hell, the whole season has frustrated some Mets fans — the Mets are just short of being a lock to win the division. Again. And heading into Tuesday night, the Mets had the best record in the National League again — not by the kind of margin they had last season, but still, doing it two times in a row, as with winning a division title twice in a row, is something no Mets team has ever done before.

So while the profit of doom types might still be worried about the division title, I’m not in the slightest. And I like this team in the postseason. A lot.

Why? Starting pitching. Last year’s team, wracked by injuries, didn’t have it. This year’s team is healthier and better. The Mets have the luxury of a big lead and the ability to rest Orlando Hernandez’ achy foot, plus enough of a lead to allow Pedro Martinez to pitch his way into shape. With win 300 behind him, Tom Glavine (12-6) looks comfortable and is no longer pressing — but relaxed and ready for the postseason and maybe the cap of his career if the Mets can win it all. John Maine (14-9) and Oliver Perez (12-9 headed into last night) will have to battle for the last playoff starting slot, with the other bolstering a sagging bullpen (my gut says it will be Perez).

That all assumes Pedro Martinez will be able to return to his role as staff ace. Maybe I’m overly optimistic, but what I’ve seen so far tells me Martinez has most of his stuff circa 2005 back and just needs innings to refine his control and ability to change speeds. In just one start, he already hit 90 on the gun. Heaven help the rest of the National League if he starts hitting 92 or 93 on the gun before October.

Amazingly, after an off-year, the offense is starting to come together. I can’t explain it, but adding Luis Castillo and moving David Wright to no. 3 (where I’ve always said he belongs) seems to have kicked the offense back into gear. If Moises Alou can stay healthy and Carlos Delgado can find a bit more batspeed, this could be a scary offense in October.

And that just leaves the bullpen. With a couple of younger bodies added after Sept. 1, the tired arms in the pen should be able to get a little rest and recharge from here on out and become a more effective unit. Billy Wagner is already showing signs of overcoming his arm fatigue. The rest of the month should show which of the setup guys manager Willie Randolph can depend upon — and which he can’t. The addition of Oliver Perez could give them another power arm to use when a strikeout is needed late in the game, the kind of extra weapon few teams can look forward to having in the postseason.

The revised bench is deep, athletic and experienced — battle-hardened by the post-season.

At least in the National League, the Mets are going to be the team to beat, again. Sure, the Padres could be a tough series (although they generally don’t hit that well), but I think the Mets are the better team. As for the World Series, if they don’t face Boston, they’ll be in good shape. Facing the Red Sox, though, could be one of those epic series — amazing late October theater writ large.

But you know what? I still think the Mets win it all.

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