And Humber Waits

By Matt Himelfarb
Posted Monday, May 21, 2007

As I woke up the morning of Friday, May 18th, I was almost certain that the day would be different. Surely, everything seemed normal; me waking up about fifteen minutes later than I should've, a bowl of dry wheat chex cereal that has become so bland I wonder why I still eat it every morning. But even if the city of New York failed to defy history and was on its' best behavior that day, pausing to pick up their coffee from Starbucks and prod the next senior citizen across the street, some inner sense kept on reminding me that New York would be divided as the Empire State buildings colors that day.

A quick glance at the newspaper reminded me I was as wrong as putting Carlos Gomez in the company of Daniel Murphy about a month back: Fat chance. Paul Wolfowitz was on the cover, ending any thought to a sports dominated city that day.

Whether it's CNN or Shea Stadium, politics have become an accepted part of society. Without it, what would there be to complain about? After all, a world based on true skill and knowledge might be boring.

But when is enough just enough?

To sum up the killer Bees in Houston at this point, (and I'm excluding Lance Berkman right now) they're more known for their on going charities, flamboyant personalities, and devotion to the city of Houston.

But when comes the time when we throw out all the intangibles that Craig Biggio and Jeff Bagwell carry alongside them and start looking at the fact that, for the last five or so years, their playing careers have been inundated with injuries, bloated contracts, and a keen ability to clog up a talented minor league system behind them?

Granted, Mike Pelfrey's ascension to the starting rotation early this year may've proved that Willie Randolph is gradually moving away from the days of his ludicrous inclination to bat David Wright so low in the order, or to keep running out Kaz Ishii on to the mound every fifth day.

But looking back at what happened after Mike Pelfrey got sent down becomes slightly more complex and a little less straightforward. Instead of calling up Philip Humber, they're more impressed by a 29 year-old dominating AAA baller named Jorge Sosa.

Are there pitcher's that pitch to contact? Absolutely. Does Brandon Webb, Chien Ming Wang or Roy Halladay have a ground ball percentage of less than forty percent, give up a lot of home runs, have awful control, and rely on a low BABIP (.269) to have success in 2005? No.

Yet, what I expect Willie Randolph to do next, however, is beyond comprehension. Not only will Jorge Sosa and his 1.5 K/BB ratio stay in the rotation, but on May 26th, when the Mets need a 5th starter, it will likely be Orlando Hernandez.

Vargas, Sosa, and Hernandez are Vargas, Sosa, and Hernandez and will never be confused for anything more. Humber's numbers are more than strong enough - I'm liking the 1.20 WHIP, 20% K rate, and 3.08 K/BB ratio against quality competition with New Orleans - and a lot of people forget about just how high his ceiling is (former no. 3 overall pick).

To put those numbers in perspective, some of the top pitching prospects this year - Homer Bailey, Adam Miller, Matt Garza - have a combined strikeout rate that's a point lower than Humber's. It's because of one thing: Humber is echoing the importance of utilizing his secondary and breaking stuff early on at AAA.

Yes, there's risk involved with promoting Humber, but there was also a risk in letting Oliver Perez pitch game seven of the NLCS. Simply put, there's no need for playing politics and letting old, worthless players such as Orlando Hernandez keep on playing at this point. As my colleague Dana Brand put it a few months back, we don't have to win a world series this year. A half step back for two steps forward is fine with me next year. The Mets are in it for the long run. Humber is the type of resilient player along with Jose Reyes and David Wright that will embody the Mets in the long run.