Best Trade Under The Mets Noses?

By Joe Janish
Posted Wednesday, July 4, 2007

With the July 31st trade deadline looming, rumors abound regarding the arms that may or may not come the Mets way before the end of the month.

Mark Buehrle, Jose Contreras, Roy Oswalt, and Rich Harden are just some of the names being bandied about. No matter what the deal, the rumors insist that Mike Pelfrey, Lastings Milledge, and/or Aaron Heilman are part of the package.

Well here’s an idea, and it involves Mike Pelfrey being swapped, but it won’t cost the Mets anything.

Huh?

Trade Mike Pelfrey for Aaron Heilman.

That’s right --- switch the roles of Heilman and Pelfrey, and do it as soon as possible. Put Pelfrey in the bullpen, assign him middle-relief work (for now), and send Heilman to New Orleans to take the place of Pelfrey in their starting rotation.

After seeing Pelfrey's first six starts of 2007, it appears to everyone that he is clearly not ready to be an MLB starter --- mostly because he does not have command of his secondary pitches, particularly his change-up. Very few starters can get away with throwing one speed for 6-7 innings and be successful; the only ones that come immediately to mind are Randy Johnson (in his prime) and Steve Carlton. The rest of the better starting pitchers in MLB --- the mere mortals --- have or had at least one reliable off-speed pitch, usually either a change-up or a curve.

Yes, Pelfrey throws an occasionally sharp, but mostly inconsistent slider, but a slider does not count as an off-speed pitch. Technically, it’s an “out” pitch that is only a few miles an hour slower than a fastball. Though today you see many, many pitchers throwing the slider for strikes, it’s really a bad use of the pitch. Ideally, the slider is thrown outside the strike zone, with the purpose of getting the batter to swing and miss. When it’s thrown for strikes, it’s usually a flatter (and fatter) pitch, and for a guy like Pelfrey, is a detriment because it speeds up the batter’s hands --- a guy who is having a hard time getting around on a 97-MPH heater will find it much easier to swat a flat 93-MPH slider.

As it stands now, Pelfrey’s sinking fastball and four-seam fastball are both Major League quality --- albeit somewhat inconsistent. His slider showed marked improvement in his most recent start in Philadelphia, and could quickly evolve into the strikeout pitch he’s been missing thus far. While the Zephyrs coaching staff certainly had something to do with his improvement (and worked wonders with Jorge Sosa), the fact remains that Pelfrey will develop much more quickly under the tutelage of Rick Peterson and Guy Conti than he will in AAA. Further, it could be helpful for him --- mentally and emotionally --- to pitch 2-3 times a week, rather than once. Right now, when Pelfrey has a poor start, he has to wait at least 4-5 days, possibly longer, to get back on the mound and try again. The time off can wreak havoc with a young pitcher's mind and confidence. Sitting around for almost a week wondering whether he's good enough to be in the bigs is not healthy nor conducive to progress. However, as a reliever, he has no choice but to learn to forget, to have a thick skin. If he has a bad outing, he'll have a chance to get back up on the horse the very next day and try again.

In addition, there are many who feel that Pelfrey has been "too strong" in his starts. Ron Darling, for one, has pointed out that sinkerball pitchers are more effective when they're a bit tired, because their ball will drop more. If that's true, then having Pelfrey throwing nearly every day (between getting into games and warming up in the bullpen), he'll likely never be "too strong" and have a more effective sinker.

The notion of Pelfrey as a reliever could be a boon for the Mets' bullpen. Let's face it -- more games are going to be won or lost as a result between innings five and eight -- that's the nature of baseball today. Certainly the Mets believe that the bullpen is more important than a fourth or fifth starter -- otherwise Heilman would have left the 'pen a long time ago. That said, Pelfrey's stuff is is ideal for middle and/or setup relief: a nasty sinker for inducing ground ball double plays, and a 95-MPH fastball that can be paired with the slider for must-have strikeouts.

As a middle reliever or setup man, he can concentrate on using the fastball most of the time, and occasionally mixing in the slider, which is already looking good. Focusing on one secondary pitch, Pelfrey will have an easier time mastering it. In fact, that’s exactly what Aaron Heilman did a few years ago when he transitioned to the bullpen --- he dropped the slider and curveball and concentrated on the changeup.

Speaking of Heilman, I think we’re all in agreement that setup relief is not his thing. Personally, I never thought everyday work was a good match for his unusual and complex mechanics --- but as long as he had success, it was hard to take him out of the role. Well, now he’s on the other side of success --- failure is what we call it --- and there’s no indication that he’ll suddenly return to the form that made him one of the better middle relievers in the NL in 2005-2006. Heilman’s awkward three-quarter delivery requires his timing to be PERFECT. When he’s out of synch, his head is too far out in front of his body, his throwing arm drags behind, and he releases the ball from a below-sidearm angle --- similar to where Joe Smith throws. It looks like he is pushing the ball, and his fingers are on the side or under the ball instead of on top of it. When he releases the ball with the fingers on top, he gets great movement and sink on both his fastball and his changeup. When his fingers are on the side, everything flattens out and you watch balls fly over fences far away from home plate.

It doesn’t take a brain surgeon to understand why he drops his arm angle --- it’s fatigue. His entire life, Heilman was a starter, pitching once every five or six days. He followed a routine, and though he had a weird motion, it wasn’t a problem because he’d throw his 120-140 pitches and get four-five days off. His coach/ manager would know instantly when to take him out of the game – as soon as his arm angle dipped and his pitches flattened out. (More details here: Why Heilman Must Start ). And herein lies the problem with Heilman in relief: you don’t know when to take him out, because his pitches are all over the place, because his arm angle is inconsistent, because his body still hasn’t --- and likely never will --- get used to throwing with 100% effort every single day.

Before you scoff at this theory, based on the fact that Heilman did so well in 2005-2006 as a reliever, go back and check out Heilman’s appearances. In 2005, he rarely pitched on back-to-back days (only five times, actually). Willie Randolph brought him into games an average of 8 times per month, and he finished the season with 53 appearances. In 2006, the workload went up dramatically --- averaging over 11 games per month before the All-Star break and appearing in 74 games by the end of the year. This season, he’s already ahead of last year’s schedule, averaging 12 games per month (38 at the time of this writing). The more often he pitches, the less effective he’s been. Remarkably, no one in the Mets organization has taken note of this simple correlation. (This was noted on MetsToday last July: Another Heilman Harangue)

Bottom line is, Heilman is not built for pitching everyday – physically, mentally, nor emotionally. He’s a starter. He wants to be a starter. He has the stuff to be a starter (yes, indeed, he IS more than a two-pitch pitcher --- see Aaron Heilman Dispellng The Myths ). So pull him out of the bullpen already, send him down to New Orleans (he has options), and start stretching him out. With a progressive program, he could be ready to throw 100 pitches every five days in about five weeks --- around mid-August. Maybe at that time one of the starters goes down (El Duque?) and he slips right in to help out. Or maybe he’s not needed, but he’s on course to compete for a spot in the 2008 rotation --- after all, Glavine is likely to retire, El Duque will be nearly 60, and we have no idea when or if Pedro is really coming back.

Pelfrey in the bullpen, throwing seeds and getting grounders via his sinker in the seventh and eighth innings. Heilman getting ready to step in as a spot starter in August. Think about it --- it could be the best trade the Mets make this year.
 

Joe Janish writes exclusively for Flushing University on Wednesday's. Check out his own website at: www.metstoday.com