Better Days Ahead for Carlos Gomez

Like most position players, Lastings Milledge is taking his last few cuts with his four-iron, trying to accumulate some extra-base hits and some satisfaction from “MLB The Shows” Shea Faithful, and possibly enjoy the upcoming NCAA Mens Basketball Tournament. Jumping to the Majors with only a short stay in AAA this past year didn’t bode well with him, and even Fernando Martinez experienced his first hiccup upon being promoted late last year from Low-A to High-A.

And then there’s Carlos Gomez.

After being signed as a 16 year-old in 2002, Gomez was slated to spend his first full season as a 19 year-old at Low-A Hagerstown. For a team with toolsy players such as Ambiorix Concepcion, Gomez wasn’t to be mistaken for anyone. His 6-4 frame combined with a stance only to be considered enigmatic for a player of his age and background only because it was so normal, as though it had been taken out of a coaches’ handbook: He starts with his hands and elbow high, then as the pitcher begins to deliver to the ball, he lowers the bat onto his right shoulder parallel to the ground simultaneously, reminiscent of Rey Ordonez’s swing.

But all of this combined produced an unlikely outcome: .275/8/48/.331/64

To paraphrase all that, he was a leadoff hitter with a tendency to strikeout. The latter wasn’t unusual for a player his age, it was the direct result of his follow-through in his swing, but the fact that he was a leadoff hitter opened the doors for a slew of prejudices: He walked just 32 times in 487 at-bats, which is perhaps the reason why Barry Zito was never donning the orange and blue. More importantly though, was the fact that Gomez was a right-handed hitter. Most of the quintessential lead-off hitters like Rafael Furcal and Jose Reyes shared many of his explosive skills, but they were switch hitters. The essence of that prejudice was that not only were they better suited to set the tone, but that it enhanced their prospect status since they weren’t power hitters. (The Mets actually converted Reyes from a right-handed hitter to a switch hitter following the 2000 season when he was 18.)

However, the Mets confidence in Gomez was seemingly the equivalent of Baseball America’s ranking system. Entering 2006, he was ranked sixth overall in the system, and many scouts believed he had a better arm than both Lastings Milledge and Concepcion, combined with what could be described as a natural ability to get good reads off the bat and track fly balls down. Therefore, the Mets decided that he didn't need any time at High-A St. Lucie and headed straight to AA. One scout outside of the organization thought that while Gomez really shouldn’t have been at Binghamton that fast, but that there was almost a “why not?” sense. Contrary to that, a vehement outcry was expected, and it was considered relatively feasible considering Gomez’s first few months of play. By the end of the year however, he didn’t replicate his success at Low-A, he only got better. After seemingly hitting the tank at .221 by July 20th, Gomez took off from there, compiling a 20-game hitting streak which included raising his average nearly 30 points within the first 12 games. Gomez played in a park that played predominantly to pitchers in 2006 (and has since it was built in the early 90s), but in 2007, he’ll be playing in a park that despite being nearly destroyed two years ago will be next in line for the humidor. For example, Jeriome Robertson was once a type-flight pitching prospect for Houston and led the PCL in ERA in 2002 (2.55) and his PECOTA at Houston, which projected at 5.40, ended up at 5.10. If so, Gomez will have to rely on his SB potential, which showed a marked improvement from 2005 where he was caught just nine times as opposed to twenty-four, enabling him to place second in the league at forty-one.

Future Projection: Gomez’s main problem remains his plate-discipline, since Gomez prevalently lets his hands drift and overstrides throughout his follow through. The only reason Gomez’s OBP went from .331 to .359 from 2005-2006 was he was hit by 20 pitches in 2007. Aside from those common issues for young players, the only eminent question that remains is whether Gomez will fulfill his five-tool potential, which in my opinion, ascertains his place above Lastings Milledge on the depth chart. Of course, if you consider a modest five tool player’s numbers to be around .290-25-90, then Carlos Gomez’s closest comparison at this point is Jose Reyes.

In Comparison to Jose Reyes:

Player at AA......AVG....HR....RBI...OBP......SLG....Doubles....SO’s

Jose Reyes...... .287.... 3......61... .331... .425...... 25........ 66

Carlos Gomez....281.... 7..... 48.....350... .423...... 24........ 88

 

I thought it to be necessary to include doubles because that’s a clear indication of power potential. Reyes was just a year younger than Gomez when he split his 2002 season between High-A St. Lucie and AA Binghamton. Ultimately, in order to portray an accurate statistical analysis, we projected Reyes’s season to match Gomez’s 430 at-bats.

While the slugging percentage might not be completely accurate; since that and his batting average were taken from his first 66 games, Reyes and Gomez have an almost identical number of doubles, which will be muscled into homers by the time Gomez fills out. The most important part of this comparison however, is that Gomez will always be 6”4 and Reyes 6”0. Gomez walked a ludicrous 27 times in 430 at-bats last year, and, as stated before, his OBP is only .350 because he was hit by a pitch 20 times last year. Reyes was hit by just five pitches while at AA, but walked twenty-five times.

If all of these statistical similarities mean something, than Mets fans will have to do something that will be a greater adversary than it was in 2003: be patient. Reyes hit more home runs in 2006 than he did in his entire minor league career and his 2006 walk total accounted for more than half of his total walks over a 436 game career. If he fills out, the speed will go down a little, but there’s no telling of his five tool potential.

 

Any questions or comments or any specific prospect you’d like me to profile? Email Matt Himelfarb at: liberalgeek@optonline.net