But Who Plays in Citi?

By Stefi Kaplan
Posted Monday, January 14, 2008

Johan Santana is the best pitcher in baseball. I can’t dispute that.

Johan Santana would significantly improve the Mets rotation. There’s no doubt about that.

Obtaining Johan Santana could set the Mets back several years after 2008. And that’s my concern.

Part of me is dying for Omar to pull the trigger on a trade for the best pitcher in baseball. I’ve always liked Santana and I would relish the opportunity to watch him pitch every five days in blue and orange. A rotation that included Santana, Pedro, Maine and OP would be solid and exciting to watch. But I’m not sold.

It’s not like I am intent on holding onto some 19-year-old prospect because he could be the next big thing in five years. I like Fernando Martinez’s potential and am intrigued by Deolis Guerra, but I certainly don’t consider any of the kids to be off the table under these circumstances.

My problem is with the total package and what this trade could do to the Mets' farm system. I simply can’t justify gutting the entire farm for a one-year rental. Yes, I know, he is technically not a one-year rental for the Mets because they would only trade for him if they locked him up for a five- to six-year extension. I’m sorry, but we are talking about the privilege of paying Santana probably about as much as the rest of the rotation combined and agreeing to a risky long-term deal. For that privilege, the Mets should be willing to gut their entire farm system?

Further, when you evaluate a potential trade, you need to do so on both sides. And the Twins are seeking the Mets' top four prospects and a fifth player who hovers around seventh best. For what? For one year of a player they have no potential to re-sign after this year. That is a king’s ransom, even if these guys are only the best of a fairly mediocre farm system.

How is it that people think the Twins hold the cards here? Isn’t it the case that if they don’t work out a trade by the trade deadline, Santana walks for a few draft picks? The Mets offer of almost everything of value in their farm system surely trumps a few unknown picks. The Twins may act like they are in the driver’s seat, but they are not. And as time passes, they will have even less control.

This is not a fair trade if you look at what the Twins will give up compared to what they net.

And most importantly, the Mets will be seriously crippled from this trade in 2008 and beyond. With the buzz that Endy Chavez is already hurt in Winter League, we are reminded that the Mets outfielders are made of glass. One can never have too many outfielders, as evidenced by the fact that we had to dip far too deeply into AA last year because of injuries to the starters, backups, backups to the backups, scrubs, etc. I for one am not comfortable trading so much outfield depth without getting at least another position player in return.

You could say the same thing about the pitching, with so many question marks in the rotation. El Duque will need to sit at some point. Pelfrey could struggle. Pedro may not be healthy all season. And it sure would be nice to have Humber waiting in the wings.

The Mets probably even have enough depth to get through 2008, but what about 2009? Those kids are the cheapest route to the future. We all complain about how the Mets have too many veterans and not enough youth on the team. Well, by gutting the farm system, we will ensure that that trend continues for the next several years. We will have gaps in the outfield and the rotation going forward, both for starters and backups. Yes, the Mets have some draft picks but those guys will be even further from major-league ready. So, by trading for Santana, we could be resigning to a team policy of filling every hole with a veteran on the downturn of his career for lack of other options.

I want Johan Santana to be a Met. But under these circumstances, he should cost three top prospects, not four or five. He should cost one of Carlos Gomez and Fernando Martinez, not both. He should cost one of Deolis Guerra and Fernando Martinez (said to be the two with the greatest potential), not both. Throw in some lower level prospects. With the knowledge that Santana will cripple the team financially for the next six years, the Mets can’t afford to cripple their farm system simultaneously. The Mets, even with Santana, would only have two pitchers secured for the rotation in 2009 – he and Johnny Maine.

Unfortunately for the Mets, they are not the Yankees or the Red Sox, both of whom can afford to part with a few top prospects without gutting their systems. The Mets do not have that luxury.

I want Santana to open Citifield in 2009, but who will be there along with him?