Can Pedro Be A Problem?

By Joe Janish
Posted Friday, August 24, 2007

A few weeks ago, my suggestion to curb the enthusiasm related to the return of Pedro Martinez was met with a barrage of scathing comments and a few death threats --- and that was merely the response from my wife and dog. Why was I so negative? Why can't Mets fans be excited about Pedro returning? Why couldn't I see the romance of Pedro galloping in on a white horse to lead the Mets to the postseason?

Because it most likely is not going to happen that way.

However, it's becoming more clear every day that Pedro WILL return. Whether he's physically ready or not, everyone in the Mets' organization, and Pedro himself, are now speculation on "when" rather than "if" he returns to the mound in September. Some people (fans, pundits, bloggers) are even suggesting that he will make his first start of 2007 on September 1, against the Braves.

OK, let's agree that Pedro's 2007 return is imminent. What happens if he's only mediocre?

Forget the possibility of Pedro getting rocked. If he starts, say, five games, and can't get out of the third inning in any of them, then it will be clear to everyone that he's not ready to return, and he'll be left off the postseason roster. Similarly, if Pedro pitches lights-out, making a full return to form, it's a no-brainer to make him a game one starter. But what if his performances are somewhere in the middle?

Let's face it -- there's almost no chance he comes back and dominates. Even if he's 100% healthy (which he's not), Pedro's days of pure and physical domination are well behind him. On the other hand, his intelligence on the mound and craftiness have no peer -- he's the best, bar none, at keeping batters off-balance with an array of speed changes, breaking balls, and moving fastballs. At his best, Pedro is now El Duque on a good day times two -- and that's as close to dominating anyone throwing under 90 MPH can get. Unfortunately, no one can expect Pedro to pitch with that kind of effectiveness after four or five starts against A-ball hitters. For all intents and purposes, it is the third week of March for Pedro -- throwing 75 pitches in spring training games. Hoping he'll mow down Major Leaguers two weeks from now is wishful thinking.

More likely, he'll have some struggles and he'll have some shining moments. We'll see a glimpse of his greatness, but get frustrated by setbacks. And therein lies the problem. What if Pedro pitches well, but not outstanding? What happens if he pitches a five-inning gem in one start, then gets chased out of the second inning five days later? What if he starts six games and his ERA is around 4.00, with only three quality starts? In other words, what if Pedro pitches no better and no worse than any of the other Mets starters?

If the playoffs started tomorrow, Willie Randolph would have a tough decision to make in regard to his top three starters. Orlando Hernandez and Tom Glavine would most certainly be numbers one and two -- pick your order -- but the number three is really a tossup between John Maine and Oliver Perez. Both youngsters have pitched very well this year, both pitched well in the postseason last year, and both have been struggling as of late. If it came right down to it, Maine would probably get the nod -- but not by much, and only because Ollie's stuff better translates to the bullpen than Maine's. Generally speaking, you don't necessarily need a fourth starter in the postseason -- because there are usually off-days built in -- but we'll guess that Randolph would consider using all four pitchers for starting assignments, if only because he can't decide between Maine and Perez.

Now what if you throw a so-so Pedro into the mix? While it's true that he has more postseason experience -- and success -- than the youngsters, would it be fair give him the nod over two guys who have helped carry the team all year? If you don't care what's fair, then does it make sense to send two healthy and often effective arms into the bullpen, and instead start a guy who is still recovering from shoulder surgery and has only pitched at the big league level for a month?

Again, if Pedro finishes with a flurry -- say he goes 5-1 with a 2.50 ERA in September -- then the decision isn't so difficult. But if he has good games and bad games, and his starts are essentially a crapshoot, what does Willie do? You can't put him in the bullpen, because he's still on a strictly controlled throwing program. And don't even think about moving Hernandez out, based on his previous bullpen success; El Duque has been the Mets' most magnificent starter this season, and known as a big-game pitcher. Let's throw another variable: say Maine or Perez -- or both -- look great in their last few starts, and Pedro throws well too. What then?

Suffice to say, let's hope Willie has this problem to solve at the end of September. It would be a wonderful problem to have.