Cracks In The Dam (Damn!)

By John "Metstradamus" Coppinger
Posted Friday, July 6, 2007

Wow, the Mets are starting to look like their 2006 selves, aren't they?

Too bad it's September of 2006.

Frustrations that are emanating from the Mets and their fans (probably more from their fans from themselves), are due to the fact that this team isn't the juggernaut that it's been all of last season, and up until the 3rd of June this year. But since then, the world has pretty much caved in, with a three game sweep by the Rockies prompting fears that the Mets maybe aren't as good as we'd like to believe that they are.

But with so many things going wrong, one could probably say that the Mets, at 46-37, are right where they should be. Maybe better than where they should be.

Among the cracks in the Flushing dam, the first order of business has to be the bullpen. Omar Minaya proved that a good bullpen is essential to a winning organization. The consistent winning stopped when the bullpen fell flat. But was it the entire bullpen? Or was it, perhaps, Guillermo Mota? I used to be a staunch proponent of an Aaron Heilman trade. Now? I'm not sure you can do that considering how bad Mota has been, with a 7.71 ERA, and a WHIP of 1.61. But is the key to Mota's success just keeping him locked in the clubhouse on the road? Mota's home stats are actually kind of impressive: a 2.38 ERA with a WHIP of 0.88. On the road? Well just consider that his ERA at Coors Field is 32.40, and if you want to tell me that it's Coors Field and that those numbers should be thrown out, I'll counter by telling you that you can double that 32.40 and it still wouldn't come close to Mota's ERA in his worst park. (Mota has an ERA of 81 at Comerica Park...81! Even Julio Franco is younger than that!)

Then you have the rotation. Forget for a moment that Jorge Sosa and Oliver Perez are hurt, because they'll be back fairly soon (we hope). But what the 3-13 stretch in June exposed, among other things, is the need for an ace. The Mets usual rotation is filled with starters that are good enough to be twos, threes, and fours (before you ask, I'm not putting Jason Vargas in that category yet). But no aces. Look, nobody expects to beat Johan Santana straight up. But when the Mets were down 5-0, even 3-0 to Johan a couple of weeks ago, there was no hope in that dugout of a comeback. None.

Now think about how many 3-0 leads the Mets have had during this losing streak where the other team was demoralized?

Keep thinking, I'll give you a minute.

Give up? Well, it was a trick question, because the answer is zero! All these 3-0 leads blown, including Wednesday night were a factor, in part, of not having a big gun on the mound that evokes fear and loathing in the other team. Our pitchers are very good. But not killers. Maybe, just maybe, the return of Pedro Martinez cures that ill. Considering he will have been out of major league action for close to a year, I'm not counting on that. But Pedro, no matter how he's pitching, at least has the aura of an ace. (Think about it this way, if Pedro Martinez pitched this season, and had the exact same stats as John Maine, you can bet that Pedro is chosen to the all-star game because he has the cache that Maine just doesn't have. Maine is getting there, but he's not quite there yet.)

And then there's the lineup. You have to admit that the production put up by the Mets lineup in 2006 was nowhere near the output of an ordinary, human lineup. The numbers put up by this team in '06 was phenomenal, and for this franchise it was historic. So there was no way that we could expect the Mets to repeat that in '07, especially when you consider that most of the team's home/road splits in 2006 were tilted towards road parks (most of them easier to hit in than good ol' pitchers park Shea.)

Does that mean we shouldn't be worried about what is happening with the 2007 hitting production? Absolutely not. We should be worried when Carlos Beltran is having a season slightly below his average (and without April, it's well below his average), and Carlos Delgado has seemingly gotten old before our eyes. And this is the middle of the lineup. Who knows how bad a shape this lineup would be in if Jose Reyes and David Wright weren't hitting?

The biggest worry in the lineup though has been the lack of good at-bats during the early June slump. But to my eyes, those "give-up" at bats have been few and far between as time as gone on...and hopefully, Paul Lo Duca's 14 pitch at-bat late Wednesday night with the team down by 11 runs in the ninth inning signals the end of those kind of at-bats. If that kind of message isn't received by the rest of the team, then you mind as well go watch NFL training camps come August because then there will be no hope.

But there is hope. There's hope because as bad as the Mets have stunk this past series and overall in the last month, the Braves have matched them odor for odor. The Phillies? With all of the injuries they've had in their rotation and their bullpen, it's hard to envision them being able to take advantage of any follies that the Mets have had long term. And there's hope because Messrs Alou, Martinez, Perez, Sosa and Chavez have to get healthy sometime (and maybe all at the same time), right?

And also consider that Omar Minaya hasn't gone to work yet. With all of these cracks in the dam, this is going to be a make or break trading deadline for Omar. 2005 was relatively, and correctly quiet for Minaya. 2006 was an aberration because of the Duaner Sanchez injury, and it did net Oliver Perez. In 2007, there will are definite holes that Omar needs to fix, and for once everyone in the league knows it. So we'll see what Omar can bring in when everyone can see his hand. Reliever? Ace? Power bat? Someone that will push Julio Franco to the coaching ranks? We'll see what holes he chooses to go after, and is able to go after...and how much he has to give up.

Hopefully, the cracks in our dam will be filled with real solutions, and not gum.
 

Are you worried about how the 2007 trading deadline is going to work out? Worry along with me at The Musings and Prophecies of Metstradamus (Metstradamus for short).