Do The Mets Play Moneyball?

By Ken Dynamo
Posted Monday, May 26, 2008

Michael Lewis' examination of Billy Beane and the 2002 Oakland's A's season has been out for several years now, so there has been plenty of time for Beane's 'revolutionary' management tactics to percolate through the rest of the league. So I figure now is as good a time as any (especially since I finally caught up to the rest of the baseball world and finished book yesterday) to ask the question, 'Do the Mets play play 'Moneyball?'

It's actually quite easy to answer: no, the mets definitely do not play Moneyball.

This is actually a good thing. The answer is 'no' because 'Moneyball' specifically applies only to teams with limited resources and payroll (usually but not necessarily small market teams), trying to compete with teams with high payrolls and lots of resources at their disposal by exploiting efficiencies in the market. Because the Wilpons have fat stacks of cash to lavish on everyone's favorite ball club and Omar does not have to go through the same contortions to field a competitive team that Beane was forced to with his penurious owners, 'Moneyball' is not really applicable.

The better question is to ask is whether or not Omar and the Mets' front office properly apply the lessons spelled out for them in 'Moneyball.' And the answer to that is, yes. Well, probably, but also, sometimes no.

OK I'll be honest, I'm not quite prepared to answer that second question at the moment, that would require a whole lot more research into all of Omar's moves as a GM while with the Mets, and unfortunately, I've spent all my recent free time reading the book 'Moneyball.'

Besides, even if I labored over every move Omar made, every transaction, every draft pick and every promotion, we'd still never have a satisfactory answer. That's because part of a GM's job is not to let anyone know what the real motives were behind the scenes. The more we, the fans know, the worse job our GM is doing. Even the credential beat writer will never know all the facts. So at best we can play armchair GM from the sideline.

There is a particularly revealing, pull-back-the-curtain chapter where Lewis is amazingly allowed to listen in as Beane tries to spin garbage to gold as he hustles other GMs in the league during the 2002 trade deadline. Several prominent GMs are mentioned, notably then current Mets GM Steve Phillips and then Expos GM Omar Minaya. Unfortunately for us, both look like a couple of rubes as Beane pulls out every move in the car salesman's book.

Allright, lesson number one, never trust Bill Beane, but what about all that stat stuff, the sabermetric gospel that Moneyball preaches? By now, we've all grown tired of the whole scouts vs stats debate, and frankly, it's not really that important to the Moneyball ethos. The facts of sabermetrically inclined strategies are on the table, and no organization remains ignorant about them; some just implement them with more vigor than others. I have no idea if Omar has someone in the Mets organization to play his Paul DePodesta, but I'm sure there is someone. Not to be glib, but this battle is over. Which isn't to say scouts are now obsolete, only that statistical analysis is just another weapon in a well-informed GM's arsenal. How well he wields is what's left to debate.

So lets talk about progress from here. Cutting the gristle and getting to the meat of the polemic, 'Moneyball' is about market efficiency. The market is limited to the 30 teams in Major League Baseball, each one of them with their own unique characteristics. For the GMs of those franchises to play their own brand of 'Moneyball' they will have to figure out how to turn these differences into advantages and then exploit them.

The Mets are unique in so many ways, but to keep things simple, lets focus on their big market, big money status. With their solid fanbase and big bucks, I can think of a few things they Mets need to do, or at least do better. There are doubtless many other things I'm not thinking of, but this is at least a start.

1) Spend more money in the draft.

With the way MLB contracts are structured, it is far more cost effective to spend $5 million on a first round draftee's signing bonus and control his contract for six years through arbitration than to buy that equivalent level of performance on the free agent market, after most players have passed their prime production years. The Mets should be going after the big money Boras agents and getting quality players into their farm system.

2) Spend more money in foreign territories.

Without a draft for players in the Caribbean and elsewhere abroad, all that is stopping major league teams from culling the every growing talent pool for themselves is the initial investment, the down payment. The Mets should be pouring money into academies in the Caribbean, Mexico, the Far East and anywhere else where there are athletically talented people who want to play baseball for money.

3) Play up the New York market.

There is only one Capital of the Universe, and the Mets are fortunate to be one of only two franchises allowed to play their goods there. Beyond their annual salary, free agents should be sold on their endorsement deals that they will be able to get in New York and nowhere else. Sure, there are tabloids to deal with, but if the Post can't sour New York on a guy like Paul LoDuca, than nothing can.

And the bottom line throughout all for this is you have to stay sharp. Those suggestions are useless if you're constantly throwing good money after bad to make up for mistakes.

There's a very good chance, of course, that the Mets and Omar already know all of this. All it takes is one jerk in the front office who read 'Moneyball' to send one email and you've covered everything I just did and then some. But that's what makes 'Moneyball' such a great book is that it allows us geeky armchair GMs to spout off our own 'expert' opinions join in the debate. Well that, and all curse words.

Ken Dynamo writes regularly on the poorly named blog GO METS DIE BRAVES. It's filled with posts a lot like what you've just read except with more vulgarity and less tact. You most likely do not want to visit it.