Don't Forget the Real Players of this Tragic Theater

By Ken Dynamo
Posted Thursday, June 19, 2008

Finally the streets are running red with the blood of our now ex-managers. All thats left to wonder now is if and when Freddie Wilpon goes full on Robespierre and sends Omar and company to the guillotine. "Pity is treason!!!"

I am inclined to believe with Mr. Jack Flynn that Wilpon needs to be ultimately held accountable, however, if for nothing else than for the horrible way these stories seem to make it to press in an embarrassing fashion. The front office has more leaks than a bathroom bar full of drunks during happy hour. How how could anyone sign off on a 3 am firing? Really? Of course I'm sure Wilpon will make up for it with re-instituting Hawaiian shirt Fridays. That should smooth things over.

But while I enjoy playing Armchair Human Resource Director as much as the next, I am already worn out by this story. The New York 'Mess', oh how clever, yadda yadda yadda. Great, now lets focus on the guys we used to always blame for miserable seasons: the players.

One stat I find incredibly useful for finding out who has been totally blowing it and who has been totally rocking it out is called WPA, invented by the fine folks at FanGraphs. It's a totally nifty stat that stands for Win Probability Added. You can read more about it here, but basically, is goes like this: At any point in the game, each team has a specific probability that they are going to win, from 0 to 100% percent. All games start at 50% each. If a player does something good, the teams win probability goes up, and when they do bad, the win probability goes down. The difference between those two probabilities is either added or subtracted to the players' cumulative WPA.

OK, now that everyone is good and bored with this already, lets see who Big Willie Style should send flowers to for doing their best to keep him employed and who should be getting bricks tossed through their windows with a note attached that says 'suck on this'.

These guys rule:

Carlos Beltran 1.29 WPA

I lot of people say Carlos Beltran isn't clutch, and man does that ever rankle my cankles. Belty-belts has been one of the most consistently producing all-stars in the Mets line up since his incredibly mediocre first season in New York. He has also done more to help the team this year than anyone else. Carlos Beltran is a great man, and not only did I buy a #15 replica jersey, but I also got a huge mole surgically attached to my face in his honor. Carlos Beltran fact: Carlos Beltran's mole has a mole, and ITS mole is bigger than YOUR mole.

Ryan Church 0.86 WPA

Churchez Le Femme has been doing his best to make everyone forget about that Lastege Millings guy. We won't know if the trade was worth it for a while yet, but you have to credit him with doing a good job holding down right field this year, when he's been healthy. It's a bummer that Churchie has been on the DL so much. Concussions are serious stuff but I feel like he should be fine now. It's been my experience that when you suffer a head injury, after the little birdies stop flying around you can just shake your head back and forth real fast and be fine.

Moises Alou actually comes in third for team WPA with 0.72, but he's also only played 15 games because he is an old brittle piece of junk, so I won't be counting him on the side of people who rule.

Who didn't see this coming, by the way? It's not like Alou's age is a secret. All you have to do is check is driver's license, which is made out of papyrus. I'm not saying Alou is old, but the first team he played on was the New Amsterdam Mets. Moises Alou is so old, the first note in his high school year book says "Hey dude! Have a great summer! Your pal, Moses"

Right, anyway... last on our list of awesomeness is another familiar name you'd expect to see here:

David Wright 0.67 WPA

It's tough to think of more compliments to heap on a guy who is so perfect in every way. In fact, the only lingering question I have for D-Dubs is this: Why won't you answer my e-mails, David? What, you think you're too good to hang out with me? Fine, I'll just ask my cable guy to go to Medieval Times with me. Your loss, pal.

Now, on to the guys who stink:

Luis Castillo -1.19 WPA

Not only is Castillo's SLG less than his OBP, but he also leads the team in untimely outs and inconsequential hits. I know many Castillo defenders will say that we didn't sign this guy to hit home runs and that he is delivering the production that Omar signed him for four years to delivery, but that just begs the questions: Why was Omar looking for a guy to delivery four years of sucky performance? I don't know what the exit strategy is for this guy, but until he is gone, I will be forced to consider him Paul Lo Duca 2.0 (ps, that's a bad thing).

Carlos Delgado -0.95 WPA

The bad Carlos blows this year and we all know it. I also don't see any other solution to the problem, either. I can't even think of any jokes, it's just a big hopeless, depressing black hole at first base. Incidentally, I got to first base last weekend. I had to borrow my friend's car and buy a whole bunch of Peach Schnapps, but it was worth it.

Brian Schnieder -0.53 WPA

I don't know what do think about Schnieder. On one hand, its nice to have a catcher who isn't a defensive liability. On the other hand, I miss having a guy who can jack 40 homers manning the plate. I guess the only thing to say about Brian Schnieder and his poor hitting thus far is this: Ramon Castro's head is freaking huge.

Nothing of these numbers are terribly important, however. That's the rub about WPA, it's not a get metric or measuring 'true' performance. In the long run, all the luck usually does even out and good players will have good WPAs and vice versa. I just like it cause it's like a crib sheet for knowing who you should be getting ticked of at when your team is struggling.

The main point though, is that Big Willie, for all his faults, deserves some sympathy, at least in my opinion. When you look at the league leaders in WPA, you'll notice that the entire team has really been coming through when it counts, and that has just added to this last month or so of tragic Mets theater. Not quite of Oedipal proportions in tragedy, (or grossness) but still pretty disturbing.

Good luck in the future Mr. Randolph, better luck next time avoiding becoming a speed bump under the bus of life.

All stats from 6/17/08

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Ken Dynamo leads an incredibly unfascinating life while following the Mets from Arlington, Virginia. If you want to read more of this nonsense but with more swearing and less tact, it can be found at GO METS DIE BRAVES, but don't say you weren't warned.