Enjoying it While I Can

By Matt Himelfarb
Posted Saturday, May 16, 2009

Great baseball teams have that sacrosanct moment. That moment when teams realize they are not merely good, but really good. When sweeping struggling ball clubs on the road and letting your rivals know who-owns-who becomes the norm. Their most obsessive and apocalyptic fans switch gears to cruise control, knowing full well that their dedication and late inning prayers are no longer needed.

The Mets west coast trip in 2006, when they won six of seven from the Dodgers and D-Backs, certainly meets the criteria. I only got to watch them play Arizona, since the Dodgers series was in the middle of the week, whereas the Mets played the D-Backs, from Thursday to Sunday. Our Metropolitans had already proven they were the wrecking crew in Arizona in 2005, and outscored them this time around 37-9 for the four game sweep. Already one of the best teams in the National League on paper entering the year, the Mets were now a member of an elite class, joining the Yankees, Red Sox, and Tigers as one of the few dominating teams in baseball.

This ain’t one of those moments.

The Mets are a talented ballclub. They are certainly talented enough to win the NL East. 10-2 since their series in Philadelphia, the Mets are less complacent and more intense. Unlike most fans, I do not attribute this as the cause of the Mets recent hot streak. Many fans and mainstream columnists often talk of baseball like it’s’ war, with heroes and villains and the like, without taking the time to rationally analyze it.

This is not to say emotions and baseball are mutually exclusive; rather, the Mets new attitude is the result of poor performance and bad luck. Nine of their eleven losses in April were within three runs or less, five by one. Their largest loss of the year- 8-1 against the Nationals on April 26th- was the rubber game in a possible sweep, started by Omar’s most expensive off-season investment- Oliver Perez. Most of these losses could be inscribed to a bloop hit here or there, where the Mets repeatedly failed to come through with runners in scoring position.

In other words, the Mets were frustrated. And through some combination of frustration, fortune, and better baseball came the Mets winning streak. During the first few weeks, the Mets dugout was stoic, with about as much camaraderie as the Yankees broadcast booth. Somehow, a certain fire was lit under these guys. In the first two games of the four game set against San Francisco, the Mets stole thirteen bases. The value of “Manufacturing Runs” is a myth, and when abused is counterproductive, but it reflects a new willingness in this team.

While there is a sea change in attitude with this ballclub, and attitude might have given them an edge the last week or so, it will not carry them down the stretch. This is a misconception among fans; it caused them to boycott games a month back, and now its’ got them believing the Mets are destined for a world championship- ala 2006.

The Mets have averaged over five runs per game and are second in the National League in OPS.- an impressive feat, considering the pitcher’s haven Citi Field has proven to be thus far. The Washington Nationals also score runs (more per game than the Mets, in fact). At some point, the bullpen will not be able to clean up whoever’s starting mess. Maine has been god awful posting 24 walks vs. 29 strikeouts in 40.1 innings of work, and, as other’s have documented, his control will continue to worsen until his mechanics are normalized. His velocity is not quite there yet- a low 90’s fastball just won’t draw the trademark swing and misses up in the zone that Maine was once not-so-long-ago famous for. And don’t get me started on Livan Hernandez or Tim Redding- fans pop champagne bottles for these guys when their outings are slightly better than dreadful. It’s pathetic really.

And that brings us to our fourth dark hole: Mike Pelfrey. While he is not getting smacked around the ballpark, hitters are figuring out this one trick pony, compounded by his control problems. After slugging a meager .398 against him last year, his opposing SLG% is up to .444. When he does try and throw his slider more than five percent of the time (about every other game or so), it is wildly inconsistent. For the most part, it tends to flatten out as he did when he struggled last year, and catches too much of the plate.

More importantly, though, his fastball velocity has dipped this year. While this has led to increased movement- his GB% is up from 50% to 56% this year- it does not compensate for what a hard, mid 90’s sinker brings to the table. Further, he works with his slider around 84-86, while his fastball is around 90-92, touching 93. Not terrible, but it certainly does not guarantee keeping hitters off-balance. In the best of worlds, he would be able to balance the two, but in the short-term he might want to scrap movement for velocity. One thing is for certain- his peripherals cannot support an era. below six.

That’s right- I forgot about Oliver Perez. My bullish imaginations have led me to believe he has been abolished from baseball, and chilling in the Mexican League.

Sorry folks, that just ain’t getting’ it done.

Their only option at this point is to DFA Livan Hernandez and promotes Jon Niese. Absent anyone beyond Santana who even looks like he can put up league average numbers, Niese can give them that shot in the arm. Who knows; new to the league, he could go say, 6-2 with a 2.90 era.

Why does god make men cynics?

 

Want to talk LOB%, Sally League relief pitchers, or Austrian economics? Hit Matt up at matthimelfarb@gmail.com