Francoeur Trade a Win for Mets

By Matt Himelfarb
Posted Sunday, July 12, 2009

If I was Omar Minaya and the Atlanta Braves offered me Jeff Francoeur for a C-level prospect or two, I would reject them out of hand and counter them with a dozen bats and balls.

If the Braves than came back offering me Francoeur for Ryan Church, and I was stoned out of my noggin, I would still think it’s the most lopsided trade ever.

At least that is what I thought when the trade first broke Friday evening. I spent the next day, however, rationalizing the trade from Omar’s perspective, and I am torn between two conclusions.

A: Omar thinks Jeff Francoeur is a better bet to help the Mets in 2009 than Ryan Church.

B: Omar recognizes the Mets plight, came to terms with their playoff prospects, and made the first of many moves with an eye towards 2010.

In the short term, Francouer, when compared to Church, undoubtedly hinders the Mets down the stretch. The average OPS+ for right fielders in 2008 was 113. Over the post two years, Francouer has posted an OPS+ of 72 and 68 respectively. After posting a 106 OPS+ last year, Church’s production slipped to 88 this year. Away from Citi Field, a pitcher’s haven, however, he has a posted a 126 OPS+.

Yes, Francoeur's hitting southpaws at a decent clip this year (.303/323.404), and gives the Mets lineup more balance, but it hardly compensates for the offensive disparity. Further, Church can hold his own in center field, which gives them the option of putting Gary Sheffield in right and a promising Nick Evans in left, instead of playing the offensively anemic Jeremy Reed in center.

Defensively, it is somewhat harder to evaluate both players, since statistics are skewed for outfielders. As an all-around outfielder, Church has always been solid with a plus arm. His career UZR/150 in right is 10.5, which would put him sixth among qualified right fielders this year. Francoeur appears to have brought his struggles at the plate out into the field, as his numbers have taken a dive over the last two years. From 2005-2007, though, he was arguable the best defensive right fielder in the game. While his numbers offensively in 2007 (.293/.338/.444), were nothing to write home about, he was worth almost $15 million according to Fan Graphs.

The difference between Francoeur and a Church over a full season might be one win. This might seem like a decent margin, but because the Mets have a twelve percent chance of making the playoffs this year and will likely field an AAAA team for the next month, it does not mean all that much.

I know what you are asking: If Omar’s really given up on 2009, why not trade Church to a contender, net some solid prospects, and play Nick Evans the rest of the way? Because Omar would lose the rest of his dwindling fan base if he was that conspicuous about the direction the Mets are heading. As long as the SNY cheerleading crew continues to unequivocally proclaim victory, most fans will believe Omar’s thinking A, and not B.

Change of Scenery:

According to a lot of talking heads, Francoeurr’s success is contingent upon the change of scenery element. Usually that kind of talk gets my blood boiling. In Francoeur’s case, however, we are talking about a guy who is from Georgia has a lot of history with the Braves organization. Check out this quote from Francoeur in Bill Shanks’s Scouts Honor in 2004:

“I think there will definitely be some pressure [making it to the Braves], but it’s something I look forward to. Dale never grew up here. So you’re talking about a kid, in me, that did grow up in the area. That’s why I maybe feel a little extra pressure ‘cause I’m the hometown kid. I’ve lived here for twenty years. The whole Atlanta area and my community is what made me and molded me into the person that I am. I don’t think anyone should ever not look forward to a chance to give back to kids and the community like that. The impact that you have on a community and on kids like that is amazing.

And here is Paul Snyder, the Braves former scouting director and assistant who retired in 2007 after working for the Braves for nearly fifty years, on the thought of Francouer making it with the Braves:

“I’ll tell you… we thought Chipper and Murphy hit the Atlanta market. If Francouer ever hits it there’s not end in sight. There’s no end in sight. He’s got so much charisma about him. He likes everybody. He’s going to make so much money away from baseball. He’s just so charismatic. You may vote him for him for President one day.”

Nice to see an organization taking it one day at a time and not placing exorbitant expectations on one kid and hoping for good health and peace on earth.

Conclusion:

I cannot say with complete confidence that Francouer will ever un-tap his latent potential. But I do not think this trade will come back and bite the Mets. Last year, Francoeur was the victim of a .277 BABIP and a 6.5% HR/FB rate. In 2009, he has a .285 BABIP, and a HR/FB rate of 4.6%. With a new team, he can relax, regain his confidence, and start pulling some balls over the left field fence in Citi Field. He will never be Dale Murphy, but if he can be the same player he was in 2007, he can join the Mets core for years to come. And that is enough for me to go out on a limb and call this a win.

You can contact matt at: matthimelfarb@gmail.com