It is El Duque Stupid!

By Matt Himelfarb
Posted Tuesday, February 19, 2008

I believe I speak for all Mets fans when I admit that I have a habit of grasping at straws with first impressions when baseball season, after a four month hiatus, finally rolls around. On the surface, when you read all those jolly, almost completely non-baseball related stories- you know, the fact that Luis Castillo appears very happy alongside El Duque and unlikely to bring Jose Reyes to any “Dominican Restaurants” anytime soon- nearly wipes away any bad memories leftover from the collapse. And we can only imagine how we would be feeling if we were privy to what Willie Randolph plans on saying to all the players when they arrive on February 21st.

Though if you really want to know if the Metropolitans organizational philosophy has changed, just look at what Orlando Hernandez said when asked by reporters about his role next year: “I think I’m in the rotation. I not go to bullpen. I’m happy on mound as a starting pitcher.”

Or what Omar Minaya said when pestered about the same topic: “Orlando Hernandez is part of his team’s starting rotation.”

So, in short, no chicanery there; once again, “The Decider”, with the support of the upper echelon, has yielded to the veteran status of another ballplayer, this time Orlando Hernandez. Of course, not even the most progressive Mets fans see this as Willie Randolph reprising some of the most blatant mistakes he made last year, such as his unequivocal and stupefying support for Paul Lo Duca or Brian Lawrence. Part of the reason is that the ageless wonder was, well, pretty good last year- he posted a 3.72 era. to go along with a 21% strikeout rate. Another reason is that people generally respect Hernandez as the physically beaten down crusader who came back in late May of last year and was Mr. Consistent from there on out.

Let’s just say, however, that the Mets go ahead and sign Odalis Perez or Kyle Lohse or someone else from the retread list, or even more likely, that Mike Pelfrey returns to spring training with the same flashes of dominance he showed last year. I have already made the case against sending Pelfrey to the bullpen, where he would have little to gain development wise. Oh, and allow me to present one final variable to this whole equation: What about those fans in the Mental Institution across the street clamoring for the Mets to trade Oliver Perez?

To answer the last question, I would prefer to paraphrase what the legendary James McCarver would say: “It is El Duque stupid!”

My problem with El Duque in the rotation is not so much the difference between 150 innings and 170-180 that we would otherwise receive from Pelfrey or retread #1 and #2, although all things being equal, it would be best for his durability. The logic for trading El Duque is simple: Why trade a twenty-seven year old southpaw whose value could potentially skyrocket instead of The 2,000 year old man coming off a career year (hey, we know he was born before Carl Reiner and Mel Brooks hit it big).

Let’s examine the former first. Perez’s 2007 line is a paradox to say the least; it was the first year in which he showed the same flashes of greatness that he so often exhibited in 2004 with Pittsburgh, but his mechanics still failed him at times and resulted in a 10% BB rate and many people maintain he was lucky to have posted a 3.56 era. (4.29 FIP). However, there are two caveats in those statistics. For one, it is easy too assume that if Perez continues to post a strikeout rate well the league average yet his BB rate remains egregiously bad, deciding between he, and say, Carlos Silva, (who sucked $48 million out of the Mariners abysmal front office) is a case of the lesser of two evils. As proven in this study by THT fantasy baseball writer Derek Carty, the difference in era. between pitchers with an above average K/BB ratio by who only capitalize on one skill (walks or strikeouts) is 0.36 in favor of the high strikeout/high walk pitchers.

Second, as I mentioned before, strikeouts are usually underrated for pitcher in the sense that they are often weighted evenly with walks. This biasness is reflected in the formula for FIP [13(HR)+3(BB)+2(K)]/IP+3.2 where the number of walks a pitcher allows are actually weighted heavier than the number of strikeouts. Assuming his peripherals stay in tact, Perez should expect to see some regression, given the fact his BABIP (.278) is over 20 points below the league average, but the difference between his FIP and his actual era. is exaggerated.

And let’s not forget that many people I have spoken to claim Perez is at the ripe age where wild, hard throwing lefties tend to click; Joe Janish of Mets today has emphasized that if Perez can build on his amelioration with his arm angle (he stays around ¾) and possibly improve in another are of his mechanics- landing, timing, etc.- he could be even better. In addition, if Perez can harness his command, he will decrease his pitch count and gives the Mets another two hundred inning pitcher next year. El Duque’s egregious FIP (4.87) will show up along with the real El Duque in 2008, who is just not getting better.

El Duque will not necessarily bring back much value was, but it is inevitable that some team, via injuries or earlier misjudgement, will offer B grade prospects following the hemorrhage of young talent in the Santana deal. Perez, on the other hand, would provide more of a return value, but at the same time, if the Mets offer him arbitration next year- its’ not like money will be an issue with all those bloated contracts coming off the books next year- they will likely receive two first round draft picks if he signs elsewhere.

Hernandez or Perez, or loyalty or production: It is Omar’s choice.

 

You can contact matt here.