It's Never Been So Sunny In Philadelphia

By Matt "The Stat" Himelfarb
Posted Monday, August 13, 2007

While flipping through the pages of John Schuerholz’s “Built to Win: Inside Stories and Leadership Strategies from Baseball’s Winningest GM,” one of the very first things that occurs to the reader is that, aside from a few segments, Schuerholz doesn’t spend a whole lot of time going into tremendous detail about a front office personnel move or free agent acquisition. Instead, Schuerholz, to a sometimes exasperating if not boring, extent, likens the Braves' leadership abilities, clubhouse atmosphere, and vast distinction from the way he believes “Moneyball” teams operate (with quite a few misconceptions). Like a child receives his looks from one of his parents, it’s easy to see where the Braves' sometimes irritating competence and professionalism comes from.

So ultimately, when Schuerholz, who outsmarts if not downright fleeces teams more prevalently than Jack Bauer performs unrealistic tasks, acquires slugging first baseman Mark Texiera, the reaction among the Shea Faithful is gloom and doom; Mets fans fret, and the Tomahawk Chop rings louder and louder.

And what happens to the Phillies? Well, they’re cast to the side.

Make no mistake, I find it as hard to feel badly for the Phillies as I do find it believable (and I understand why you might gasp at reading this) that as I write this, the Phillies are just a half game behind the Braves. Now I suppose Mets fans have gotten so used to hearing that the Phillies don’t have enough starting pitching that it has become entrenched as the main reason why the Phillies will be unable to make a serious playoff bid. Others will point to the fact that the Phillies playoff odds, according to Baseball Prospectus, at about thirty-two percent is currently lower than that of both the Mets and Atlanta.

And of course, never will fans forget the adversaries that the Phillies are facing.

Starting with the brain trust of the organization. Pat Gillick is one of many prominent scapegoats in Philadelphia. He came over with the pedigree of one of the world’s best businessman, but comes out looking as though he might be more than few years outdated, particularly when he went after Billy Beane in a Sports Illustrated article over four years ago. Gillick partisans can point to the deal that sent Jim Thome to the White Sox in return for Aaron Rowand as a shrewd deal, but that’s about where the positives end. Since than, he’s let Billy Wagner leave only to sign Tom Gordon, and traded Bobby Abreu for a toolsy outfield prospect yet to make his way out of A-Ball as the result of putting in little effort and preparation. Last off-season he signed Adam Eaton, who he pompously proclaimed had “20- win potential,” along with Freddy Garcia, two issues I’ll tackle on later.

Phillies' outfielder Pat Burrell is arguably the most hated athlete in Philadelphia right now, and nothing would please the Citizens Bank Park faithful more than should Gillick capitalize on his blunder in the off-season. That’s right, Gillick did consider dealing Burrell for Armando Benitez at one point. Why? Well, Burrell has the reputation of being a horrendous defensive player, prone to striking out and failing in the clutch, and being a bad clubhouse influence.

How about injuries? In Philly, they have become all but an epidemic. $85 million dollar man Chase Utley is right now sitting somewhere outside of a big league ballpark, nursing a hand injury he sustained less than a month ago, which will likely keep him out until September first. In addition, nearly all the Phillies outfielders, most notably Aaron Rowand, have been out at one time or another.

Last but not least, the grand reason as to how the Phillies' push for a serious playoff bid is their starting rotation. Remember when I cited earlier how Pat Gillick said Adam Eaton had “20-win potential?’ Well, it looks as though the only potential he has at this point after going 9-8 with a 6.36 era is to officially Carl Pavano his massive contract. Dealing top prospect Gio Gonzalez, who’s quietly compiled 159 strikeouts in 128 AA innings (30% strikeout rate), appears to be a move that exemplified the little foresight in the Phillies organization, since Freddy Garcia now appears to have been shut down for the rest of the season.

So where am I going with all this? Despite all of this, things just aren’t as bad in Philadelphia as they seem.

Huh? Well, excluding Pat Gillick since he factors into nearly every decision, let’s run through those negatives again.

No one’s going to argue that Burrell isn't a horrendous defensive player. Offensively, however, by using a simple OPS calculation, he’s outperformed both Carlos Beltran (.901 to .829) as well as Alfonso Soriano (.847). He’s one of the few players today who has drawn more walks than strikeouts (82 to 80). When you consider the average left fielder in the NL hit .277/.359/.478 in 2006, Burrell is a legitimate all-star.

Injury troubles? Amid Chase Utley’s hand injury in late July, Tadahito Iguchi, who Gillick acquired a week before the deadline has done a spectacular job filling in (.377/.444/.509). The injury troubles to the outfield earlier in the year opened up a spot for one of the Phillies' few promising hitting prospects, Michael Bourn, who’s hit above replacement level thus far (.284/.361/.394).

Last but not least, the most underrated facet of the Phillies ballclub this year, the starting pitching, has started to come around. The resurgence of starters Kyle Kendrick (5-2, 3.75 era.) and recently acquired Kyle Lohse (6-12, 4.58 era.) have set the tone for a solid rotation. Kendrick, who was in A-Ball as recently as 2006, relies on a microscopic walk rate along with a propensity to induce ground balls, making him a perfect fit for Citizens Bank Park. Throw in Jamie Moyer, who at this point is Tom Glavine’s equal, behind bona fide ace Cole Hamels, and the Phillies have a rotation that, at the very least, can carry them down the stretch with their juggernaut offense.

No doubt, the Mets still have the edge pitching wise, having posted the third best era in the National League right now. Oliver Perez (10-8, 3.31 era.) along with John Maine (12-7, 3.53 era.) have proven they have the ability to anchor the staff. A largely unsuccessful second half for Maine, however, along with Perez’s struggles in August, can be attributed to the fact they’re likely to endure at least some type of regression:

(ERA-FIP-BABIP)

John Maine 3.53-4.11-.257

Oliver Perez 3.31-4.25-.264

Why the Phillies seem to be stashed in the back of everyone’s minds is a paradox to say the least. Perhaps no one is interested in such a match-up when no one is trash talking or Citizens Bank Park doesn’t exactly bring back the horrid memories of Turner Field. More likely, with a makeover in the pitching staff, an epidemic of injuries, “Pat the Bat” still tripping over himself, and “Stand Pat” calling the shots, Mets fans have yet to realize the simple truth; it’s never been so sunny in Philadelphia!"
 

You can contact Matt at: matthimelfarb@gmail.com and check out www.cyclonesnation.wordpress.com