It's the Pitching, Stupid!

By Matt Himelfarb
Posted Tuesday, August 12, 2008

In 2008, I can tell you for certain that the Mets season will boil down to one thing: pitching. Believe you me, I really hate to try and pinpoint the Achilles Heel of a ball club early on or what the difference maker will be for this team down the stretch like another cocky former ball-player-turned-ESPN-analyst; after all, a division champion either has to be clicking on all cylinders and or kicking or screaming its way in on account of its pitching or hitting right?

Let me put it this way: David Wright and Jose Reyes, at least on the offensive end of the spectrum, have basically done what is expected of them. Ditto Brian Schneider and Ramon Castro; the former through putrid hitting and the latter through timely hits when he is not rehabbing in Port St. Lucie. Carlos Beltran may not have swatted as many extra base hits this year as expected, but there is do denying he is once again a valuable cog on this team. Meanwhile, Carlos Delgado’s struggles over the past week or so can be attributed to just about everything concerning his plate discipline and bat speed, but there is a good chance he will put up around if not better than league average numbers when all is said and done.

Elsewhere, aside from not wanting to admit a colossal mistake, Omar Minaya will at the very least want to give Luis Castillo the next month-and-a-half to build up some trade value for the off-season. The corner outfield, on the other hand, is anyone’s guess, depending on how much of a boost Ryan Church can give this team, Fernando Tatis’s impending decline, and other likely nonsensical roster moves. The fact is though, as shown by Baseball Prospectus’s Adjusted Standings Report, the Mets are right where they should be at offensively, yet pitching wise, they are expected to improve and take the Mets to glory.

Can that be counted on, specifically with the focus of today’s column, the starting rotation? Starting with Johan Santana, the Mets have a solid ace to show for in Johan despite a somewhat concerning drop-off in his strikeout rate this year. Jerry Manuel proved that being quick with the hook isn’t always a terrible strategy when John Maine was, much to his dismay, removed from his start in Florida on July 28th for what eventually amounted to a strained rotator cuff that landed him on the DL. Astute observers such as Joe Janish have noted that it is probably in Maine’s best interest to make some serious adjustments mechanic’s wise. Otherwise, his peripherals are largely in line with his numbers last year, but just about every corner of Mets fandom is hoping Maine finds a way to squeeze another inning out of himself with each and every start.

Oliver Perez, whose job itself was at stake early on, has been rock solid over the last months or so, racking up strikeouts and compiling some quality outings ever since pitching coach Dan Warthen has come in and tweaked certain areas of his game. Pedro Martinez has looked more comfortable his last few times out incorporating his breaking stuff into his game, and we all know what his late 80’s fastball can do when it’s on. Mets fans seem to be slowly coming around to souring on Pedro’s tenure with the Mets, so would it not be nice to remember Pedro going out in style in the last season at Shea? Health, of course, remains the largest obstacle for him.

Hence, you have the story of the Mets rotation thus far- talent in spades, and absolutely confidence whatsoever. Many Mets fans as a result, are willing to turn to the guy that stuck around during Willie Randolph’s last days and has been arguable the Mets most consistent pitcher outside of Johan- Mike Pelfrey.

Make no mistake; Pelfrey has come a long way- and more. It almost seems as though when people like me were pouring over seemingly petty stuff such as his K:BB ratio and how misleading his sometimes solid performance were very early on, Pelfrey was starting to gain the shark-like confidence you see in him today. I am the first to say it is truly a spectacle not only watching Pelfrey now tie up right handed hitters with a two-seam fastball or take a lame whack at his sinker, but to see him bounce back from surrendering a home run to retiring the rest of the order with ease.

Waiting for the Pelfrey epiphany… and… still not there yet.

Because as Sunday’s outing showed us, throwing your fastball like its going out of style is not always going to work against a young team like the Florida Marlins, and teams will continue to make adjustments against Pelfrey as the season wears on. For all the talk about him throwing his curveball again, he still rarely throws his breaking stuff, and his changeup, which has potential, is inconsistent velocity wise and doesn’t help when it comes to keeping hitters off balance.

Maybe it will all work out fine for the Mets- or perhaps it will come crashing in their face. The actual answer is probably somewhere in between but, as even a 1980’s hockey team showed us, miracles can happen, eh’?

Matt is a disgruntled, statistically- and politically-obsessed teenager and appreciates all words of encouragement at: matthimelfarb@gmail.com. You can also check out his blog: matthimelfarb.wordpress.com.