Johan Or Bust?

By Matt "The Stat" Himelfarb
Posted Wednesday, December 26, 2007

If the reports coming from the rumor fueled New York Media is indicative of anything, it is that some Mets fans are in for a bust.

Of course, to any rational thinking Metropolitan fan out there, this is not necessarily bad news. To be sure, the Mets, being a National League team, still retain a shot at acquiring Santana, but it is easy to see where the Yankees stark lack of interest in Johan emanates from; far from my proposed deal over a month back of Carlos Gomez-Philip Humber-Ruben Gotay, the Twins do not seem willing to accept anything less than a combined twelve years of service from Gomez and Fernando Martinez. Not to mention the fact anyone that thinks Santana’s worthy of a six year deal worth $250 million is historically myopic.

So why am I so doubtful about the prospect of Omar wrapping up this off-season on a successful note? As the old saying goes, if you want to know what you’ll get for Christmas, your best guide is what you got last Christmas.

Last Christmas- excuse me, a few weeks ago- we watched the Mets trade outfielder Lastings Milledge to the divisional rival Washington Nationals for outfielder Ryan Church and catcher Brian Schneider. The trade was hailed by a fair number of people, particularly local sportswriters, due to Milledge’s “troubled history”, Church’s “projectability”, and most importantly, Schneider’s status as “one of the better defensive catcher’s in the league.”

Regardless of Milledge’s rumored makeup problems, which I have always maintained is tainted by him having an interest outside of baseball, let us look at this trade objectively. Church is not a fourth outfielder, as some have said in the past, having posted a career OPS. over .800 while posting a .272/.349/.464 line with 15 home runs and 43 doubles in 2007, numbers he will only improve upon when he leaves the pitcher-friendly confines of RFK stadium. Schneider does not carry nearly as much offensive promise, hitting just .235 last year with virtually no power. (.336 SLG %.) I think it is fair to give him the benefit of the doubt defensively, though I cannot see how it makes him worth nearly $10 million over the next two years.

Than you have Milledge, who has shown a quick bat, a keen ability to get on-base, (.385 career MIL OBP.) along with decent plate discipline throughout his entire minor league career, while also improving upon his defense by leaps and bounds in 2007. While some experts claim his height (6-1) might limit his power potential, he outperformed prospects such as Pittsburgh Pirates OF Andrew McCutchen (5-11) as well as the Oakland Athletics OF Carlos Gonzalez, (6-1) who was the key component on the Arizona Diamondbacks effort to acquire Danny Haren. at the same age if not younger in AA just two years ago. In other words, the Mets dealt an improving 22 year old with a projected .813 2008 OPS. for a 29 year old OF with a projected .815 2008 OPS. and a catcher not likely to perform above replacement value.

Now, we see Omar on the verge of adding to his personal list of knee jerk acquisitions. Even if the Mets reported interest in Kyle Lohse is somewhat contradictory, it is downright frightening to think the Mets have the slightest bit of interest in signing Lohse to an eight figure bonus over the next four-five years when they could probably get a 5 era. and below average peripherals from just about any non-tendered pitcher out there. (Josh Towers anyone?) We hear of the possibility that Omar could send Gomez, Aaron Heilman, and Kevin Mulvey to the A’s for Joe Blanton, even when the latter two could easily outperform Blanton in the rotation as early as next year.

Perhaps, Omar, one way or another will prove us wrong with Ryan Church or some pitcher that we believe to be a waste of time and money. But somehow I do not see how Omar cannot see the inherent lack of logic in signing Lohse or waiting until July to see if Freddy Garcia is worth $8 million. I do not know if it is necessarily an autonomy issue- we all remember Jon Heyman’s article for Sports Illustrated on the Wilpon’s displeasure with Omar and co. even before the collapse- but for much of his tenure as the Mets general manager, Omar seems to have approached each off-season with a sense of calmness and a propensity to swing some creative deals that the public may not like. Therefore, I believe a combination of his job security and the need to make a move in response to “The Collapse”, has resulted in the type of knee jerk deals and safe signings we have already seen and that are still on the horizon.

So please, Omar put Heilman in the rotation, sign Barry Bonds, do whatever you have to do to gain back the trust of the Shea Faithful and show us the luster that brought us “The New Mets.”

 

You can contact matt at: matthimelfarb@gmail.com