Learning From History, And Hoping It Repeats

By John "Metstradamus" Coppinger
Posted Friday, April 27, 2007

It was just about 20 years ago when a Mets pitching prospect made his starting debut amid much anticipation and hope.

This prospect, who’s ascension came under the circumstance of injury and suspension to other starters, came in hoping to set the world on fire. Instead, he was torched for ten runs in five innings. He was hit hard in his second start too, and the impatient fan base was so down on him that they bemoaned the fact that he was named the starting pitcher…for an exhibition game.

It sounds similar to what Mike Pelfrey is going through now. Pelfrey comes to the Mets amidst even more fanfare than our pitcher from twenty seasons ago. And he too, is getting hit hard. Against Atlanta, he gave up four runs in five innings. On Wednesdsay, against Colorado, he gave up six runs in three innings. And now, the talk begins about whether Pelfrey is ready to be a major league pitcher.

Here is the question the Mets must ask themselves: Will the immediate future of Mike Pelfrey’s development be better served by being the fifth starter under the tutelage of Rick Peterson and his analogies? Or will it be better served by going back to New Orleans and going under the wing of Mike DiFelice? And for the Mets, what other options do the Mets have at fifth starter if they decide to go in another direction?

Is that direction Chan Ho Park? Doubtful. I checked his New Orleans stats today. Now, this is AAA mind you. Are you ready? A 3-1 record…however: opposing batters are hitting .299 against him. His ERA is over seven. He’s given up six home runs in 21 innings, and that doesn’t work for a pitching coach who preaches keeping the ball down.

Next contestant: Phil Humber? His New Orleans numbers are better with an ERA of 3.00, an opponent batting average of .211, and a WHIP of a shade over one. But ask yourself this folks: If part of Mike Pelfrey’s problem is being “rushed” to the majors (and keep in mind the key term is “if”), would the Mets really want to risk doing that to their other blue chip pitching prospect?

Another option is Jorge Sosa. Don’t laugh, just listen…because here’s what I learned about Jorge Sosa today: Along with a 3-0 record and a 1.38 ERA in four starts, Sosa’s GO:AO number, ground outs versus air outs, is 1.5:1, which is a vast improvement for a pitcher notorious for giving up long home runs. It’s more impressive that he’s done it in the PCL, where warm weather and at-altitude cities like New Orleans, Las Vegas, Albuquerque, Tucson, and Colorado Springs dominate the league.

But something tells me that if Jorge Sosa comes to Shea, it might be necessary to put him in the bullpen to take up the slack of Ambiorix Burgos, who might need to go back to AAA at some point, or perhaps even Aaron Heilman if it turns out his elbow is hurting him more than we think.

Which leaves the last option, which for me is the best option, to keep Mike Pelfrey right where he is. Unless Pelfrey’s outings get progressively worse than it was on Wednesday against Colorado, there’s no better place to learn than being the fifth starter on a good team. It’s not like Pelfrey has to be the ace, and with the Mets lineup as good as it is, it’s not like Pelfrey has to win games 2-1. He has the luxury of being the fifth starter, and he has the support of a good lineup (not to mention Rick Peterson). And speaking as someone who’s been around a while, I’d say that Pelfrey has another luxury: the luxury of a fan base who’s a little more patient with young pitching prospects than they were twenty years ago. So why not let him learn the game at the highest level? If Pelfrey goes back down to the minors and puts up better numbers, will it ever be a valid barometer again?

So while things may seem down for Pelfrey right now, there’s every chance that he could turn out like our pitching prospect from twenty years ago, who improved steadily after those first two outings. After being sent to the minors when everyone got healthy, he returned later in the season and pitched fairly well. The next season, he contended for the Cy Young award.

And dare I say that David Cone had a pretty good career.
 

Wanna talk Mike Pelfrey? Wanna talk David Cone? Wanna tell me how much of a moron I am? Stop by my home base at http://metstradamus.blogspot.com, where you can do all of that and much, much more.