Message to Barry: We Don't Care

By Joe Janish
Posted Friday, July 13, 2007

Within the next week or so, Barry Bonds will swat the 756th homerun of his career. San Francisco fans will cheer. Other fans who don't know better will cheer. Commissioner Bud Selig may or may not be there as well. If he is, it will be awkward. If he's not, it will be awkward.

One man certain not to cheer, and certain not to be in attendance, is the current United States homerun king, Henry "Hank" Aaron.

Yes, the "United States homerun king". Hank finished a good hundred or so homeruns behind the world leader, Sadaharu Oh. So when Barroid smacks number 756, it's really not that big a deal. He'll still be way behind Oh's 868.

There was a time when people -- especially those in the US -- didn't acknowledge Oh's record. They cited silly reasons, such as:

1. The parks in Japan were much smaller than the ones Henry played in.
2. The pitchers were inferior to the ones Henry faced.
3. Nippon Professional Baseball was really a AAA league in comparison to the US MLB -- the competition and other players were not nearly as good.

Hmmm ... those disputes sound awfully familiar.

Let's fast-forward to the 1990s and the turn of the 21st century. Major League Baseball made drastic changes to the American Game, all in the name of "improving" the sport. For example:

1. The size of the strike zone was redefined, making it about 15-25% smaller, and eventually monitored strictly by QuesTec technology.

2. Batters were allowed to wear protective body gear, such as elbow pads.

3. Umpires were told to warn pitchers who threw too far inside, and were given authority to eject pitchers if in their judgment they intentionally threw at a hitter (whether he hit him or not).

4. Expansion increased MLB from 26 to 32 teams.

Those were the most significant changes that Commissioner Bud Selig will acknowledge. We won't get into another evolution --- the proliferation of illegal, peformance-enhancing drugs throughout baseball. We could, but it's not necessary for our argument.

So, in other words, Barry Bonds played in an era that significantly favored the hitter. Anyone who disputes this need only check the record books, and find that runs per game increased dramatically, the number of homeruns hit skyrocketed, and ERAs went through the roof. This is what happens when you water down an already thin supply of pitching talent, narrow the strike zone, and effectively eliminate the inside pitch from a hurler's arsenal.

Now imagine if Hank Aaron played during the 21st century. During the majority of Aaron’s career:

1. There were only 16 Major League teams;
2. Batters did not wear helmets with ear flaps (much less elbow guards);
3. Pitchers had carte blanche to throw at those barely protected heads;
4. Pitchers threw from a hill that was five inches higher;
5. The strike zone was about 25% larger.

We won’t even get into the quality of the lights for night games back then, the harsher traveling schedules and transportation options, or the lack of modern medicine and trainers to keep guys on the field. We also won't get into the fact that nearly all Major Leaguers back then had a second job to work during the offseason, because they didn't make the money they do now. So they didn't have the benefit of working on their skills and optimizing their bodies during the winter. And while they surely had greenies, the players in Aaron’s era didn’t have access to performance-enhancers such as steroids or growth hormone — heck, they didn’t even have weight training back then.

(Oh, I'm sorry, we weren't going to mention the illegal drugs. Pretend I didn't write that last sentence. This isn't about whether or not Barry cheated.)

So, taking a look at the environment Aaron played in, compared to the one Bonds has enjoyed, we can see a stark contrast in the sport. There are enough facts to at least draw the argument that Aaron's 755 homeruns were more difficult to come by than total that Bonds amasses. And once you admit that there is enough room for argument, guess what? Sadaharu Oh's career HAS TO enter the picture. Because although Aaron's total homeruns might have more "weight" than Oh's, whose to say that Oh's accomplishments were less difficult than Barry's? Maybe it's time to get Matt the Stat and other disciples of Bill James on the case.

Here's the bottom line: yes, Barry Bonds will have hit more balls over the fence than Henry Aaron. But he did it at a time when homeruns were not nearly as big a deal, and when everybody hits them. Other than Ernie Banks, how many middle infielders were popping 25-45 homeruns in a season back in the 1950s, 60s, and 70s? Not many. Yet it's commonplace today. The Dan Ugglas, Brandon Phillips, and J.J. Hardys of the world have helped cheapen the homerun. Balls fly over the fence all the time. Big deal --- that's baseball. So who really cares if and when Bonds hits that supposedly "magical" 756? Someone else (likely a middle infielder named Rodriguez) will pass him not too long from now anyway.

That said, Barry, we don't care. Maybe when you get close to 868, we'll start to pay attention. That's the REAL homerun record.