Mets Prospect: Down But Not Out

By Matt Himelfarb
Posted Tuesday, March 6, 2007

Mets prospect most likely to surprise us this year?

There’s Deolis Guerra. Originally thought of as a poor man’s alternative to Gaby Hernandez, the more the Mets stretch Guerra’s lanky right arm, the sweeter it is to watch what could be the second coming of King Felix.

Of course, how the media would love to see Shawn Bowman rebound. At nineteen years of age, his fielding spoke louder than his bat, easily insinuating that David Wright was bound for a position change. Now his current destiny is the climax of a story within a story, making a name for himself after narrowly escaping the grasp of a career-ending back surgery.

Lastings Milledge? Enough said.

The answer? Hint: He had surgery to repair a ligament in his elbow, and hasn’t pitched above Class-A.

In case you haven’t gotten it yet, I’m talking about Matt Durkin. At twenty-four years of age and slated for the St. Lucie Mets rotation, Durkin is keenly aware of the fabricated defamations of the media pertaining to him. "Matt is an extremely likable kid and very easy to work with", his high school coach Mike Guido says. "He’s down-to-earth and really appreciates what he has."

Durkin’s current situation seemingly echoes many other young minor league pitchers. What he lacks is health, not potential. While pitching for San Jose State from 2002-2004, the husky 6"4 220 lb. hurler with his gritty, shark like attitude was subject to an abusive college throwing program, all but completely reminiscent of that of fellow Mets farmhand and number one draft pick Philip Humber. If his 2004, and final season with the Spartans proved anything, it was that Durkin, having already thrown just under two-hundred innings in his freshman and sophomore years, plus time in the Cape Cod League, was not even ready for the slightest jump come his senior year. In 110 innings, as opposed to his sophomore year in which he threw 100, his whip rose almost twenty points (1.17-1.36), his hit total over twenty-five (101-75), his ERA almost a full two points (2.60-4.49), and while his walks rates only increased diminutively over that time period, it was ludicrous in contrast to his sophomore year in which he threw 98 innings (BB- 24-49, BB9- 2.20-4.00.).

Judging from his 2005 statistics, it was easy to infer that Durkin’s bouts with injury were seemingly preordained from his Spartan days. In seventy-six innings, Durkin allowed fifty-four walks and averaged 6.37 walks per game. By the same token, Durkin didn’t have his first rough outing in Hagerstown until May, which eventually was the beginning of a decline in nearly all pitching aspects. His fastball, which usually sat between 91-93 mph range and topped 95 at the time he was drafted, was rarely clocked above 88 mph the entire season, which set off a domino effect: "I’m more of a power pitcher, and guys start fouling pitches off, it takes a little longer to get them out" Durkin explained. Despite all this, Durkin still showed why he has the potential many fans once thought he did. His sinking movement that came with his 77-80 mph slider, and occasionally his fastball, was evident by the fact he allowed just fifty-four hits, had a K9 rate of 9.31, and maintained his spectacular home run rate of 1.06. If Durkin can ever regain his once promising curveball, which sits around 72mph, he could become a scary pitcher.

Closest Comparison?

While Philip Humber certainly has the higher ceiling as of right now, it’s not far-fetched to think Durkin can reach that same level. Both have similar stature- Humber 6"4 210lb, Durkin- 6"4 220lb. Aside from the fact that both pitchers, at the same age in their first full year, almost got injured at the same exact time- Durkin- 69 innings through, Humber 70.1, that’s about where the similarities end. However, long time Braves scout Derek Ladnier might very well have been describing Matt Durkin when commenting on former Braves homegrown-star Kevin Millwood in Bill Shanks’s "Scout’s Honor": "I mean you look at his numbers and go, Well, this guy’s not a prospect, and then when you look at him on the field and you watch him pitch and you go, Yeah, this guy’s a prospect, and a big time prospect. He was just learning how to pitch. I mean you could see all three pitches on any given night, it was just the consistency lacking." Furthermore, in Millwood’s first full year in 1994, after having success with Rookie-level Danville, Millwood headed to Macon and despite showing promise with three plus pitches, Millwood averaged a walk per inning. If the Mets can take a similar approach with Durkin and let him develop, he could follow a similar path of Millwood, who three years later, lowered his walk rate to 2.37. Unfortunately, judging by how quick the Mets give up on players, like Aaron Hathaway, and fail to push second-tier prospects, such as Brett Harper and Blake Whealey, Dunkin’s biggest blockade once he puts it all together might very well be his own organization.

Any questions or comments or any specific prospect you'd like me to profile? Email me at: liberalgeek@optonline.net