My Dream Has Come

By Matt "The Stat" Himelfarb
Posted Monday, January 28, 2008

So let me get this straight: Buster Olney recently noted that the Boston Red Sox have pulled Jon Lester off the table as part of what has probably been the best offer the Minnesota Twins have, and will receive for Johan Santana. Meanwhile, a young lad named La Velle E. Neal III (got that?) over at the Star Tribune claims that the Red Sox offer from way back in December still stands. Now, I know that might seem David vs. Goliath in terms of trusting who over who, but when you think Mike Francesca, who works for the Mets flagship station, would have better info to offer than anyone yet he cannot seem to work a computer let alone provide some valuable tidbits, think again.

Than across town you have the Bronx Bombers who are also supposedly in the race for Santana, although it is tantalizingly difficult to decipher whether they are actually interested in him or merely looking to keep Beantowns paws off him. Of course, it is not nearly as arduous as trying to figure out who they would actually include in such a deal, when there is a general consensus that they are unwilling to surrender Philip Hughes.

Matt Himelfarb’s first rule when trying to figure out whether a complicated rumor is true or not: Do not ask one imbecile. Ask a lot of imbeciles.

What we have heard from a lot- and I do mean a lot of people, most notably Jon Heyman- is two things: First, the Mets are the clear front runner for Santana. Second, while Santana himself has tried to play down his desire to see a deal completed before pitchers and catchers report, everyone from Charley Waters of the Pioneer Press to most people in our forums believes the Twins will stop playing the waiting game and make a deal very soon. In other words, it looks pretty likely the Baseball Gods will have Santana donning the orange and blue by the end of this week.

After much equivocation over Santana, I must admit: my dream has come.

Why the sudden change from tempered enthusiasm to salvation when it comes to the thought of the Mets paying a hefty price for Santana? We all know he is arguably the top pitcher in this game at this point and his statistics will only improve when he heads to Flushing. We all know just how valuable five or six wins might mean to the Mets in 2008, and how much money Santana is worth if he brings the Mets over the hump and into the post-season. Let’s just look at what we are giving up here.

It is no secret that the Twinkies are starved for position players up and down the system. While they continue to hold out for Fernando Martinez, I doubt Omar Minaya will be the first to wince here, so it is safe to say F-Mart will not be included in any deal. So, we now have one talented teenager to keep, two more in Carlos Gomez and Deolis Guerra to waste.

Wait, there is another solution.

Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald has thrown another twist into the deal, saying, “there are indications that Martinez would be in the deal, along with major league outfielder Ryan Church and at least two other prospects.” What seems to be true of the Twins is that, while it is essential they replenish their farm system when dealing Santana, they are also looking to compete in 2008 and within their near future, evident by their recent extensions handed out to Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer, and Church is the ideal player they would be looking for: someone that will inevitably give them league average production in the outfield, if not better, and also relatively young and inexpensive.

Hence, if the Mets are actually willing to deal major league ready talent in Church, and will probably substitute Carlos Gomez for Martinez, they would than have the leverage to tell Minnesota they do not have to include Deolis Guerra, which is overwhelmingly too steep a price. I like Gomez myself, but he is a hit-or-miss prospect at this point and his long term potential can be subsidized by giving Santana a reasonable extension. Next, where do “the other two prospects” come from. While we have little to go on as far as Bill Smith’s track record, the Twins have a habit of looking to acquire raw, athletic talent, and the Mets have plenty to offer there: Mike Pelfrey, Francisco Pena, and, though Mack might disagree, we can throw in Brahiam Maldonado as charity as well.

And allow me to present the final facet of this dream: Ryan Church’s replacement will be Barry Bonds.

Before accusing me of statistical extremism here, let’s look at the other options: Regardless of the fact I just wrote Gomez will not be staying here, the Mets were nevertheless content with him starting 2008 in AAA. And no, Endy “the most beloved pinch runner” Chavez cannot start, and ultimately not Angel Pagan.

Yes, Barry Bonds is what the British would refer to as an “unclubbable” person, but the fact is he is still one of the most lethal hitters in the game to be had for a bargain. He posted an OPS+ of 170 in 2007 and is guaranteed to lead the game in OBP. even as he creeps into his old age, giving the Mets somewhere around six wins next year. His defensive lapses can be made up for in the latter innings when Endy- there he is again- Chavez can come and look better than he actually is. Case closed.

Johan plus Barry Bonds and some additional solace for Lastings Milledge-there is a new slogan for the Mets 2008 ticket brochure: My dream has come.

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