Now What? The Mets' Trade Options

By Mike McGann
Posted Sunday, June 24, 2007

For just one night, Friday, the Mets looked like, well, the Mets again, not the collection of sleepwalkers we’ve seen since May turned to June. Since this is being written prior to Saturday night’s game, there’s no way to know whether the team will revert to it’s somnambulant play or whether they’ve woken up for good.

But whether the Mets take the field in their jammies or those awful black uniforms (and frankly, who needs to see either?), there are some personnel issues that Mets’ GM Omar Minaya is likely working on.

If you look around the Web you can find lots of entertaining, albeit fictional rumors and a handful that might have germ of truth.

But to be honest, there’s so much conflicting stuff out there right now, with one source literally contradicting another, that it’s almost impossible to report rumors with a straight face. Plus, baseball people routinely put things out there that they know aren't true, to mess with other teams. And no small number of rumors come straight from the minds of writers, so caveat emptor.

But...it’s June and something needs to be addressed, as both the Braves and Phillies are looking to make moves to get better, sensing that the Mets can be taken down. So let’s spin some, shall we say, informed scenarios, or educated guesses, as seems to befit a joint called Flushing University.

First, let’s look at needs. A right-handed outfield bat. Sure, the party line has been that Moises Alou will be back eventually. But when? Right now, his injury isn’t healing and it still could be months before he’s back, if ever. So, a right-handed power hitting corner outfielder is a priority — keeping in mind that Lastings Milledge might be ready within two weeks, and obviously, he’s the lowest-cost option, and one that could pay off massive dividends.

The bullpen: some of it is injury issues, Scott Schoeneweis and probably Aaron Heilman, while other guys haven’t been effective. This is probably the biggest priority, but since virtually every other contender is looking for pen help, there’s a big scarcity and prices will be inflated.

Starting pitching: probably the lowest priority, with Pedro Martinez about a month away and mostly decent performances from Tom Glavine (who broke his recent slump last night) Orlando Hernandez, John Maine and Oliver Perez. Jorge Sosa seems to have worn out his stay in the rotation after a wonderful month of May, and could be part of bullpen rebuild.

Okay, what do the Mets have to deal and what kind of framework is in place? Obviously, young talent will be featured, although don’t be surprised if a couple of bullpen arms get thrown in, based on the marketplace and if they can bring a decent bat. Milledge? Yeah, he’s available, but not for a rent-a-player. Ditto for Carlos Gomez. Fernando Martinez? In theory he could be had, but it will take one heck of an offer. Mike Pelfrey or Phillip Humber could be in play for an established, top-of-the rotation starter, but the lack of those on the market (and again, like Milledge, they won’t go for renta-players), suggests neither will be going anywhere.

So who is in play?

Let’s look at bats first.

Forget about high-profile guys such as Barry Bonds (lefty, too expensive, too much media grief and and so on) Alex Rodriguez (the silliest rumor of the season to date), the Mets have less than zero interest (you decide whether that’s a Bret Easton Ellis reference or one from Elvis Costello). Adam Dunn? Nope, a lefty. So, who then?

Sammy Sosa. He’s cheap. He’s power and he’d be awful in the outfield. But he’d put immediate pop in the middle of the Mets’ lineup. The only downside: he makes virtually no money, so the Rangers would want actual prospects back for him, which makes it risky. Still, Minaya loves him (he was the scout who signed him originally) and toyed with bringing him in previously. If the price is right, it could happen.

Xavier Nady. Slightly less cheap, but won’t cost as much to get from the Pirates. Has proven he can play in New York. His loss in August disrupted the lineup. Could an encore get things moving again?

Milton Bradley. The trade between the A’s and Royals is off because Bradley is hurt. And no, he probably won’t be headed to the Mets. But the Pirates are interested, which could shove Nady out the door and back to Flushing.

Jay Payton. The Orioles are a mess and are moving rapidly into house cleaning mode. At $4.5 million, he makes too much money for his numbers and injury-prone history. Probably not likely, but a fallback if everything else collapses.

Lastings Milledge. Obviously, this is best and cheapest option. But it carries some risk. Milledge hasn’t established himself as a big league hitter yet and if he fails to hit, his trade value, already slightly dimmed, could take a big hit. Still, if he is the second coming of Gary Sheffield, as some scouts have suggested, his bat could become a cornerstone of the lineup for a decade.

The Skinny: my gut says Nady. The Mets have been talking to the Pirates and the price probably won’t be much more than mid-level minor league pitching and something to help stop the Bucs pen from bleeding. Tobi Stoner and Pedro Feliciano?

And now a look at the pen options.

To be honest, the pickings are pretty slim.

Roberto Hernandez has been designated for assignment, and seems only to be able to pitch well for the Mets. Probably won’t cost a lot, but it seems like catching lightning in a bottle three times seems unlikely with the elderly fireballer.

Eric Gagne: apparently healthy, and burning a hole in the Rangers’ payroll. Big risk, big reward kind of move. A number of teams want him as a closer, so the price won’t be cheap. But he could be amazing setting up Billy Wagner. Still, the injury issues, the price, both the $3 million he’s still owed this year and the amount of talent it would take to get him might be too much for the Mets to consider seriously.

Brad Lidge. Before he injured his left oblique this past week, he might have been the best option. He makes too much money for the Astros to want him as a set up guy and he was wildly effective setting up for Wagner. Still, he expects to be healthy before the trade deadline and might be an OK, last ditch option for the stretch run, if the bullpen continues to struggle and Minaya can’t get anything done.

The Skinny: Hernandez seems the most likely option, as he seems to find magic at the footsteps of Rick Peterson. Other changes may come from within. Feliciano and maybe Heilman could be dealt for a bat, and Schoeneweis needs to go to the disabled list until he can drive off his leg properly. Willie Collazo or Steve Schmoll might find themselves moved up from New Orleans to fill holes in Flushing. Sosa seems likely to be headed to the pen, too, especially if Pelfrey shows something Friday against the Phillies.

And finally, a look at starting pitching.

You know the drill. Mark Buehrle, Carlos Zambrano and Dontrelle Willis.

Here’s the short form: don’t hold your breath on any of them. Minaya won’t deal Milledge/Gomez/Humber/Pelfrey for either Buehrle or Zambrano, as both will be free agents after the season. Willis? He might be available, but it seems like a long shot, as the Marlins are still trying to lock down county/city financing for their new stadium, which could be hurt by dealing the team’s arguably biggest star.

The Skinny: Glavine, Hernandez, Maine and Perez stay in the rotation the rest of the way, barring injury. Sosa moves to the bullpen soon, or when Martinez returns. Pelfrey might get a chance if he pitches well against the Phillies. It doesn’t look like big changes will happen here barring injury or a setback in Martinez’ rehab, which is, by all reports, going very, very well.

Overall outlook: neither the team nor the current market situation seem to suggest a major blockbuster is in the offing. As he did last season, Minaya will likely make smaller moves to tweak a team just out of balance. It’s very likely all of the major prospects in the minor league system will stick around.

Best bet: Nady. He’ll be cheap, he wants to come back and can platoon with Green in right if Alou gets healthy, giving Milledge time to heal and get his stroke back in AAA.