Omar Confidence Crisis

By Matt Himelfarb
Posted Wednesday, October 17, 2007

I admit it; I used to be one of those proclaimed geeks who sang “In Omar we trust” to whatever tune suited me that day.

Sure, Pedro brought to Shea that charisma and excitement unseen since the days of Doc Gooden. David Wright adopted the Derek Jeter persona with ease and is the most often worn jersey among Mets fans. But Omar - he was Lactantius; a relatively young guy who singlehandedly ended the demise of Mets baseball while simultaneously adopting his own Moneyball-esque inefficiency when it came to taking control of the Latin America pipeline.

Predictably, I felt I would be the last person to endure an Omar confidence crisis throughout 2007 and ultimately question his credibility. I was, of course, proven wrong, when Omar assembled the most irritating bullpen to watch.

To be fair, none of his decisions ever appeared particularly dubious; the confusion surrounding the Schoenweis signing was more of a testament to he fact they could have signed Chad Bradford at the same price than how terrible anyone ever expected Schoeneweis to be; Guillermo Mota, despite the steroid scandal, pitched terrificly for the Mets down the stretch.

But they were not just bad moves; they were awful moves.

It is easy to know where the moves emanated from, though; as the general manager of the Mets, Omar, no matter how shrewd a talent evaluator he is, has his interns read the local newspapers everyday, and knows he would be bombarded if he remained inactive. Because going out and immediately filling a void shows strength and aggressiveness; calling up a minor leaguer shows weakness and incompetence, in the eye of the New York tabloids.

Take the Jeff Conine trade from late August as a clear-cut example. Yes, we all know Chip Ambres had an OPS of 1.104 against left handers, while Fernando Tatis, who could have arguably been handed the same veteran leadership role, had an OPS of .891 against left handers. Instead, Omar, propelled from the harsh treatment he would likely receive from the media, dealt a solid prospect in 22-year-old Sean Henry (.293/.353/.809 in 2007 with St. Lucie) who, despite claims to the contrary, was not exactly old for the Florida State League (22) when you consider that he was both the definition of raw when he was drafted by the Mets in 2004 out of high school, and was primarily a shortstop in his previous years in the Mets system, for something they might have already had.

So what does Omar have to do when he sees the most highly rated free agents are a loosely connected string of overrated journeyman, ranging from Scott Linebrink (22% K rate, 10.8% BB rate) to Luis Vizcaino (18.7% K rate, 12.7% BB rate) to Jeremy Affledt (18.5% K rate, 12.9% BB rate), at the price of $3 million per year over three to four years? Simple. Roll the dice with the prospects.

Mike Pelfrey might qualify as one of the few exceptions, since his secondary stuff and control have been lagging so far behind schedule that I could see the Mets' staff determining that it would be best if he returns to New Orleans in 2008. This brings us to Pelfrey’s counterpart, Philip Humber.

Humber will undoubtedly become one of the Mets' most vexing issues come spring training. On one hand, his performance as a 24-year-old in AAA (11-9-4.27 era) in the Pacific Coast League seems to have warranted him the fifth starter’s spot in today’s game. On the other hand, the Mets already have four guaranteed spots in the rotation: Pedro Martinez; Orlando Hernandez; John Maine and Oliver Perez; and assuming one of them goes down one point, I personally do not feel comfortable with relying on Humber as anything more than that. What do you do with him, then? Simply put his fastball-curveball combo in the pen, and the Mets have their own Adam Wainwright.

The Mets do not have much as far as “established” relievers in the minors since the departure of heat-thrower Marcos Carvajal, unless we expect high round draft picks such as like Eddie Kunz, Brant Rustich, and Eric Niesen to accelerate through the minors as quickly as our Chad Bradford reincarnation project Joe Smith, but it is still probably worth taking a look at 27-year-old Steve Schmoll (14% K rate, 5% BB rate, 57% GB% at New Orleans) or twenty six year old Carlos Muniz, (7.1% BB Rate, 25.7% K rate at Binghamton) who looked impressive in a short big-league stint last year.

Heck, if it up was up to me, I would even give Bobby Parnell a look in the spring. Though hardly an unknown, Parnell has yet to crack any well publicized rankings. Having seen him pitch last year, however, he seems to fit the perfect mold of a relief pitcher; a mid 90s fastball that occasionally topped out at 97 mph, accompanied by a sometimes inconsistent slider that generates swings and misses on a regular basis. Sure, he could be Rafael Perez, or flame out within the first few weeks. I would rather deal with the latter inconvenience than watch Omar sign another Scott Schoeneweis.

And just as in every Mets confidence crisis, there is hope that Omar is thinking this right now: Humber was one of the few young pitchers called up late last year and inserted in the bullpen, and if we had a manger in place at the time who was not impervious to the idea of letting young players accumulate some playing time, he probably would have pitched more. He also did reject the Nationals' offer of overrated closer Chad Cordero for a bushel of prospects.

Yet, for the first time in a long time, I am having an Omar confidence crisis.

You can contact Matt at: matthimelfarb@gmail.com