Only One Number Really Matters: Wins

By Mike McGann
Posted Wednesday, August 22, 2007

I love to listen to people speak authoritatively about what one stat or another says about a player or a team. It is, I guess, a bit like debating Pantone colors in a Monet painting, a silly diversion, but somewhat more than futile in attempting to reach any deeper understanding of the game.

But that having been said, there are numbers that matter. Here’s one that’s all-encompassing: five. With 39 games left, that’s the Mets’ lead in the National League East. Let’s not even worry about the safety net that is the NL Wild Card. Let me spin a few numbers for you:

Assuming the Mets go a baldness-inducing 19-20 the rest of the way (including Tuesday night’s game which hadn’t happened when this was written) and finish 89-73, the Phillies need to go 24-15 the rest of the way to force a tie. That’s nine games over .500 over that stretch for a team currently a total of seven games over .500 right now, after 123 games. Then there’s the Braves, who are a total of seven games over .500 after 125 games (that means they need to play 23-14 ball, or nine games over .500 in just 37 games).

It gets uglier for the Braves and Phillies if the Mets go 20-19. Or 21-18. Or 22-17. With the Mets being 17 games over .500 going into Tuesday night, 22-17 down the stretch is a more likely outcome than going in the tank. But if the Mets do manage to go 22-17 and finish 93-69, the Phillies must play 28-11 ball down the stretch, the Braves must go 27-10. And that’s to earn a tie.

So all hand-wringing aside, here’s the truth: if the Mets don’t tank, they will be the two-time NL East Champions. Every Mets win is a nail in the coffin of the Braves and Phillies. Winning five of six on the road against the Pirates and Nationals, no matter how ugly the wins, was a major blow in Atlanta and Philadelphia.

But now comes the hardest part: A month of head-to-head and crucial series, before ending by playing two weeks against the Nationals and Marlins (with a makeup game against the Cards thrown in for good measure). Over 13 days, with tricky series at home against the Padres and Dodgers and then road trips to Philly and Atlanta, 13 games will likely decide the division title. The Phillies have an equally nasty schedule, trade the Dodgers and Padres back and forth before taking on the Mets, while the Braves play the weak-sister Reds and the surging Cardinals before visiting the pesky Marlins.

And yeah, it could take a month to know the fate of the NL East. But here’s what I think: if the Mets still lead by five games after the next 13 games, the race is over. Cool the bubbly. And I think the Mets will do that. Seven wins over the next two weeks should be enough to do it, too, with the Phillies and Braves both pitching starved and bullpen-impaired. The Braves may not have a more dangerous lineup, but so far, it hasn’t made them any more likely to win. And the Phillies...injured, getting bad pitching, they’re hanging tough, but they seem a better bet to win the Wild Card.

Consider this, too: the Mets are getting help. Sure, Jeff Conine for two not-quite-prospects seems odd, but he’s a veteran and might help address this team’s biggest flaw, the lack of leadership. Adding Conine and adding Pedro Martinez to this clubhouse could be a transforming moment for a team that desperately needs swagger. It’s also the kind of move that signals to the team that management believes in them, that this team should win, and win now.

Consider also that Endy Chavez will be back shortly, this week, probably. Paul LoDuca should be back next week. Carlos Delgado’s knee is improving and he should see action against the Padres.

In other words, the Mets have weathered the storm. Injuries have battered this team (outside of the rotation and David Wright and Jose Reyes) and yet here they are, speaking about having a five-game lead. Still. It’s like one of those great old John Ford cowboy movies, the U.S. Soldiers continue to hold their own against the Indians in a hard-fought battle and in the distance, you hear the bugle call of the cavalry about to ride over the hill.

And unlike last season, when the rotation was in tatters, a Mets playoff team will find itself with either John Maine or Oliver Perez in the bullpen (or as Orlando Hernandez/Pedro Martinez insurance). This team catches the ball. It has veteran depth. It has speed. It has power.

If August turns out well, October might just be a month to remember and take the bitter taste of the final pitch of 2006 away, much as the title of 1986 washed away the angst of 1985.

And in two weeks, we’ll know whether to chill the bubbly or begin to worry about having all-too meaningful games in September.

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