Opportunity Knocks

By Professor Joe Janish
Posted Wednesday, May 9, 2007

At the end of spring training 2006, Anderson Hernandez had earned the starting job as second baseman of the New York Mets. He outlasted Bret Boone (who retired), out-fielded Jeff Keppinger, out-healthed Kaz Matsui, and out-hit the creaky old Jose Valentin.

The Mets raved about A-Hern’s defense, saying it was so outstanding it didn’t matter whether he hit his weight. They pointed to his .300+ batting average in the winter league (the same one Victor Diaz hit .300 in), and enthusiastically proclaimed that, with he and Jose Reyes, the Mets had perhaps the most exciting young double-play combination in MLB.

After the 12th game of the season, Hernandez was placed on the 15-day DL with a bulging disk in his lower back. For all intents and purposes, his season was over, as Valentin resurrected himself and evolved into one of the top offensive second basemen in the NL.

Lost in the excitement surrounding the Mets’ steamroll to the NLCS was a ho-hum deal in July that sent Jeff Keppinger to Kansas City for a non-prospect named Ruben Gotay.

With Valentin’s renaissance, Keppinger was a spare part hanging around in AAA, and in the way of A-Hern’s development. So it made sense to send him off in return for a guy who could ride the bench and eventually jump into the second base position when Hernandez returned to the bigs.

Fast-forward to May 2007: Jose Valentin tears his ACL, and who’s brought up to take his place on the roster? Ruben Gotay. Huh?

Wasn’t A-Hern next in line? Don’t the Mets value defense over all else at second base? Wouldn’t the Mets rather have a young stud learning at the big league level, than regressing in AAA?

No, no, and yes.

Somewhere between the winter of 2005 and March of 2007, the Mets realized that Anderson Hernandez would not be much more than a “punch and judy” hitter. At 5’9, 165 pounds, it’s doubtful he’ll ever be a slugger, but the Mets would just like to see him drive the ball to the outfield. Until he proves he can do that on a consistent basis, against legitimate professional pitching, Hernandez doesn’t have much value as a Major League second baseman - which is part of the reason they’re keeping him at shortstop. Generally speaking, good fielding & non-hitting are adjectives more tolerated when used together to describe a shortsop as opposed to a second baseman. And further to the point, shortstop is A-Hern’s best position.

Still, you may wonder why the Mets would bother promoting Gotay, who flopped in two stints with the Royals and hadn’t played in the big leagues since 2005. Isn’t it clear by now that he is a non-prospect?

Actually, no. Though Gotay made his Major League debut in 2004, and was the starting second sacker for the Royals on Opening Day 2005, he’s still only 24 years old. Though Mets fans might perceive him to be older than AHern, he’s actually two months YOUNGER than Hernandez. And at this stage in both of their careers, Gotay is slightly ahead.

Yes, Hernandez is a better fielder; in fact, AHern is a better fielder than most ever will be, at any level. But Gotay has vastly improved his defensive game, something that has always been the negative in previous scouting reports. Since he first broke into the pros as an 18-year-old, Gotay has been evaluated as a good hitter with some pop, but maybe not enough glove to play in the Majors. Anyone who saw him in spring training or in his limited time with the Mets so far in 2007 would agree that he is above average defensively.

But is Ruben Gotay really the answer at second base? Shouldn’t the Mets be trolling the waiver wire, or pulling a deal for Jorge Cantu?

Not so fast; consider another New York team that had some problems at second base a couple years ago. Around this time in May of 2005 --- almost to the day, in fact --- the Yankees brought up Robinson Cano and installed him as their everyday second baseman. And we all know how that turned out.

Believe it or not, it’s not insanity to compare Gotay to Cano. They are the same age, and followed almost exactly the same career paths from 2001 until 2005. Their offensive numbers were more than comparable --- they were nearly identical across the board --- and each played at the same levels in the same years. Check it out:

Robinson Cano
G......AB....R... H ... 2B 3B HR RBI SB BB...SO
493 1930 271 537 103 29 41 281 22 138 261

Ruben Gotay
G.... AB.... R.... H.. 2B. 3B HR RBI SB BB...SO
582 2201 341 608 146 21 45 321 38 258 398

The biggest difference between Cano and Gotay came in 2004, when Gotay was rushed up to Kansas City and Cano split the season between AA and AAA. Gotay performed admirably as a 21-year-old in the bigs, hitting .270 in 44 games, but was clearly overmatched the following year, hitting just .227 in 86 games. While Gotay was on his way down in 2005, Cano was on his way up. The Yankees left him down in AAA to get more seasoning before his Major League debut on May 3rd.

It’s doubtful that Ruben Gotay will ever evolve into the power-hitting, future batting champion that Robinson Cano looks to be. However, one must wonder where Gotay would be today if he’d continue to follow the pace the Yankees took with Cano. Maybe Gotay’s quick rise and faster descent had a devastating mental affect on the 22-year-old second baseman. Perhaps all he needed was another 400 at-bats in the minors to get his skills --- and confidence --- back to big league level.

With Valentin out at least another month, and Damion Easley booting balls all over the place, Ruben Gotay may now have a second chance to fulfill his Major League potential.

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