Something's Gotta Give

By Jack Flynn
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008

It took the New York Mets 25 starts at the big league level to finally decide that Aaron Heilman was going to be a reliever. Mike Pelfrey has made 22 major league starts. Is the clock ticking yet?

Pelfrey, like Aaron Heilman three seasons ago, simply has not blossomed into the top-flight starter that the Mets envisioned he would by now. He’s languishing on the big league level again this season, having never been given enough time in the minor leagues to develop a third reliable pitch. An inconsistent fastball and a heavy sinker just aren’t enough to get out major league hitters two or three times through the batting order.

When Pedro Martinez rejoins the starting rotation – you are coming back soon, right Pedro? – GM Omar Minaya should not make the snap decision to demote Nelson Figueroa to make room in the rotation. Rather, the Mets should do right by Pelfrey and make a harder decision that will not be initially popular, but will be the best decision for his professional development.

Send Mike Pelfrey to the minors and tell him to get used to the gumbo, because he’s not leaving the New Orleans Zephyrs until September 1. Otherwise, try moving Pelfrey into the bullpen and put him on the Heilman career path, where he might find similar success.

Pelfrey seems to have been rushed through the Mets’ minor league system and it’s hard to ignore the results. The problem is that he has only accumulated 176 minor league innings over two seasons, when conventional wisdom dictates that a starter is truly ready to pitch in the majors after 400 innings. It has shown in his appearances at the major league level in 2008 – Pelfrey still has no third pitch and seems to be unwilling to challenge hitters when he gets into trouble. Three straight terrible outings have washed away the optimism Mets fans may have gleaned from Pelfrey’s first two appearances this season.

His 2005 season was spent mostly in AA Binghamton, where he pitched 66 good innings for the B-Mets. His overall stats that year – a 2.44 ERA and a 1.187 WHIP – were further gussied up by six good outings between St. Lucie (at a competition level which he was already beyond) and Norfolk.

New Orleans proved to be more of a test last season, although it’s fair to keep in mind that Pelfrey was jerked around between the Big Easy and the Big Club all season. A 3.94 ERA and a 1.350 WHIP are superficially pretty; a 2 to 1 K/BB rate and just 6.5 strikeouts in nine innings are more telling, especially considering that Pelfrey struck out over 10 batters per nine innings in Binghamton just one year before.

A demotion back to the Zephyrs would not be a professional failure, no matter how New York’s ravenous media may try to spin it. It’s not like Pelfrey has ever mastered AAA; sending him down there would give him another chance to challenge a level he hasn’t completely conquered.

Pelfrey simply needs more time to develop that third pitch and to work on regaining the confidence to trust his stuff in tight situations. The Mets cannot afford to have a starter learning on the job when so much is riding on the success of this team right now. It’s just not fair to ask him to do all of that inside the swirling cloud of negativity surrounding New York’s National League franchise, where every shortcoming is relentlessly seized upon and endlessly dissected.

The Mets should demote Pelfrey upon Pedro’s return and give him a chance to fully hone his craft, so that his next promotion can come at the full completion of his apprenticeship. But perhaps the Mets will see something in Pelfrey that many others have not. Perhaps what they will see is that Pelfrey’s future is actually in the bullpen, where he can survive longer with only two pitches and not have to conserve energy for starter-length outings. It worked with Heilman – why can’t it work again?

It’s easy to forget that everyone thought Aaron Heilman was going to be a star. A closer in his freshman year at Notre Dame, Heilman moved into the rotation as an upperclassman and fashioned a 15-0 record with a 1.74 ERA in his senior season. Heilman’s seven starts during his professional debut in the Florida State League with St. Lucie were mostly a breeze that summer; after a senior season dominating NCAA hitters, Single-A swingers didn’t prove to be much of a challenge.

Heilman was tabbed the Mets’ #1 prospect by Baseball America going into the 2002 season. Strong showings at Binghamton and Norfolk that year put him in line for a promotion in 2003. After starting the season in the Norfolk rotation, the call was made early that summer and Heilman made his MLB debut on June 26, 2003. The result? Six innings of mostly decent ball, undone by four unearned runs in a 6-1 loss to the Florida Marlins.

As it turned out, Heilman’s debut was one of the best outings he had all season. He made 13 starts in his rookie year, and was able to complete six innings of work in only three of them. The results were ugly; a 6.75 ERA, a 1.837 WHIP and 13 home runs in 65.3 innings pitched.

So to recap – a college starter picked by the Mets in the first round of the amateur draft sees early success in the minors, is rushed to the majors before he’s ready to succeed and unsurprisingly does not live up to expectations. Does any of this sound familiar?

Things didn’t get much better in 2004, as Heilman spent most of the season at Norfolk. The results were just as troubling – a 7-10 record and a 4.32 ERA, saddled with a 1.461 WHIP. Heilman made just five starts for the Mets toward the end of that season and pitched well in only one of them. After seven maddeningly inconsistent starts in 2005 – brilliant one night, awful the next – the Mets made the decision to pull the plug on Heilman as starter.

What the Mets have gotten in return is one of the best set-up men in the National League, who has been consistently durable and effective except for the terrible start he’s gotten off to in 2008. Forget about the lingering fantasies of Heilman as a starter – give him a chance instead to take Pelfrey as a Padawan learner and give him a chance to instruct his new apprentice in the ways of relief pitching.

It’s too soon to give up on Mike Pelfrey, but it’s not too late to make him an effective pitcher. Whether he does so as a starter or as a reliever is still up to the Mets, but they can no longer afford to continue stunting his development.

You can contact Jack here and surf over to his blog, Productive Outs.