Something's Happening Here

By Matt "The Stat" Himelfarb
Posted Friday, February 22, 2008

“There’s something happening here. What is ain’t exactly clear.” When someone my age (hint: I am a bit younger than John Mackin Ade) has to turn to Buffalo Springfield’s “For What It’s Worth” to describe Beltran’s proclamation that “we are the team to beat,” you begin to capture the enormity of Beltran’s statement -- grossly overplayed, cheesy, and yes, pretty good.

Yeah, I know sequels are usually pretty bad if not downright awful and that Comrade Conlin and the rest of the Philadelphia Press Corps will have a field day with this; sorry, city of the morbidly obese, but that is what happens when you manage to stick a pen into Stephen A. Smith’s hand and let him combine his erratic body language and his Will Smith poetic-ness. Don’t take my word for it; leave it to the Philadelphia Inquirer to declare Knocked Up and Juno the awakening of the counter-counter-culture revolution.

I do not want to sound too poetic myself, but I must admit: I think the forces of the baseball universe have shifted and we are witnessing the transcendence of Carlos Beltran into something more than a ballplayer.

Theoretically (and by that I mean statistically speaking and reasoned) you would not expect the arrival of Johan Santana to have such a colossal effect on Beltran’s demeanor and personality. In a short study I conducted just a few days ago, I looked at both Beltran’s monthly performance over the last two years and other key members of the Mets to see if there was any testament to the theory that Beltran performs best when he is out of the spotlight. To my surprise, it turned out that there was little correlation between Beltran’s production (I used OPS as my barometer) and any other player’s individual performance, particulary that of his good buddy, Carlos Delgado, who had a -0.13 correlation.

Feeling a bit dismayed by the results, I looked to see if there was any correlation between Beltran’s production and that of the entire lineup while using the same criteria. Like Don Imus with his photography (excuse my condescending matter), I had it perfect this time, finding a 0.86 correlation between the two variables. In all seriousness, this underscores the environment in which Beltran is most likely to be productive.

Still, I feel that the arrival of Santana, who appears at relative ease with the media though certainly not quick to play his hand, has been a sigh of relief for Beltran this spring training and, at the very least, gives the Mets another movie to keep Santana and Pedro together for photoshoots throughout the spring. They are not guys like Delgado who are needed to back Beltran up and cut off the edge. The fact is, Pedro and Santana are simply the bigger story this year. Those factors, combined with the Latin American culture that Omar Minaya has implemented, has probably made it far easier for Beltran to integrate into a more outgoing personality in the clubhouse and not feel too isolated.

But let’s close this by being honest: there’s a difference between Beltran feeling more comfortable here in New York and being the Jimmy Rollins clone he was on Saturday. As the crustiest of the crusty world of beat reporters, Marty Noble made a solid point in his last of his usually blunt-laden emailbags, saying, “it seems Beltran now is comfortable taking a leadership role. For his sake, I hope he is, because those words have put him in that role. He may have recognized a void in that area and stepped forward to fill it. If that's the case, good for him.”

Beltran will never be as outspoken as Billy Wagner or Paul Lo Duca and lacks the spontaneous humor of a Pedro Martinez. But for a team with no apparent leader, perhaps Beltran’s proclamation is a harbinger of the even keeled motivator the Mets sorely lacked last year, and that might be a bigger acquisition than originally thought.

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