Starting Statement

By Mike Silva
Posted Saturday, April 7, 2007

I am not one to get all excited about a baseball season that, as of today, is exactly 2.4% complete. There is however, much to like about the Mets 4-0 start after last nights 11-1 thrashing of the “upstart" Atlanta Braves. Sure the offense has scored 31 runs, the defense has played flawlessly, and relievers have pitched to a zero E.R.A. You know what I think is the most encouraging sign for this team? Starting pitching. Here are the numbers through the first four games:

Twenty-eight innings pitched, 3 runs allowed on 17 hits, and only 4 bases on balls allowed. Sweet.

In case you’re wondering, that is a starting staff E.R.A of 0.96. Now I am not about to say this staff will dominant the league all year like they have, but you have to be encouraged by this start. Furthermore, having a starting staff that puts up innings and controls the game could lead to this Mets team being better then last year. Scary thought if you’re the rest of the NL East, right?

All spring most expert media types felt the Mets starting rotation would be its Achilles heel, due to the absence of Pedro and the failed signing of Barry Zito. Throughout the winter I wrote about how I had confidence in the talent of the arms, but also the tutelage of Rick Peterson. Adam Rubin went as far to quote David Wright on my sports recap radio show by saying that “just because you don’t recognize the names, doesn’t mean they aren’t any good”. Perhaps many forgot that last season the fourth and fifth starters were manned by names such as Zambrano, Bannister, Gonzalez, Williams, Soler, and Lima. I will take my dose of Perez and Pelfrey versus that “Maalox” bunch any day of the week. At the end of the day, if the starting staff can perform at a high level, it will allow the Mets to accentuate their strengths, and possibly be scary good.

First, regardless of how good the offense is, or will be, the law of averages says it will fail at least 70% of the time. Even in a game when they face a mediocre pitcher, like Mark Redman last night, it may take a few innings to get going. Perez had very little breathing room until they tacked on 3 runs in the sixth innings to make the score 5-1.

Just like a pitcher can’t succeed with the daily pressure of his team not producing offense, an offense must have its pitchers give them the opportunity to produce. The pressure of hitting from behind, or in a tie game, is far different than knowing failure will mean one less frame to catch up. Good starting pitching will also force the opposition to make different types of moves. Last night Bobby Cox was desperately trying to stop the bleeding in the sixth inning. He knew that Perez was dominating, but also the bullpen was lurking. Again, good performance can lead to putting the opposition on a defensive game plan versus executing as their own blueprint dictates.

Next, speaking of that flawless bullpen, having starters go a minimum of 6 or 7 innings will improve the performance from the pen. In the playoffs it was acceptable to have your pitcher go into the fifth inning. With no tomorrow you do not have to worry about burning out your staff too soon. In April, trying to save games in the fifth inning every night is like spending your life savings to pay the monthly food bill. Eventually it will run out and you will go hungry.

The Mets pen has a good mix of arms and experience. If they can be used properly without being overworked, it may be even more dangerous than last year. No team wants to have to face a group which includes All-Star Billy Wagner, Heilman, Feliciano, and Schoeneweis in the eighth and ninth inning. Remember, there are also the wild cards of Joe Smith and Ambiorix Burgos if starters fail early in the ballgame. The Mets have closer capabilities that early in the game; a great luxury that will be that much more effective if used properly. Let’s also not forget that Aaron Sele is lingering as this years Darrin Oliver if someone gets hammered early. I think he could be very effective if used in the proper fashion. Point being that good starting pitching will lead to an even better bullpen, something that can’t be understated.

Finally, let’s not forget the mental aspect of the game. Last year the team scored 78 first inning runs. Many times this happened on the road and demoralized the opposition before they even had a turn at bat. Remember the three game statement series in Philly last June? Each game the Mets scored in the first inning and took control. Playing from behind is way different then from ahead. It changes the mood of the crowd, causes managers to change their game plan, and builds confidence.

If the starters can continue to put up quality innings, those early runs will stand up. Often you can see that when the Mets score early, they don’t stop. If a starting pitcher gives those runs back it negates any early advantage a team has built.

I don’t want to get too excited this early in the season but you have to admit the signs are very good. The team is showing hunger, bats are healthy, and the pitching has been phenomenal. In my opinion, the starting staff holds the key. If they can be solid, that adds another weapon to this loaded arsenal. Nine inning games all of a sudden become two inning games because another “bridge” to Heilman and Wagner has been shut down.

Don’t be fooled, Bobby Cox knows this as he eats his cereal this morning. Hopefully Jimmy Rollins, and the rest of the league, will find it out soon.

Please check out my weekly Sunday radio show recapping NY Baseball from 10pm to 11pm at www.am1240wgbb.com

 

Questions? Comments? Concerns? Please email me at chinmusicnybo@aol.com