State Of The Rotation

By Matt Himelfarb
Posted Monday, August 20, 2007

Last off-season, San Francisco Giants' general manager Brian Sabean offered a brilliant answer to the wrong question.

The question he answered successfully was: How do I stem the negative publicity that will inevitably follow Barry Bonds in 2007?

The question he fatefully ignored was: Is paying $18 million a year for Barry Zito really a shrewd business move?

So here we are, over three-quarters into the regular season, and Sabean is bearing the fruits of his labor. Indeed, Zito has been a nice coup for the media; an interest in charity, an infectious smile, and even a fondness for the same interests Lastings Milledge displays outside of baseball. Ignoring the latter question, however, far outweighed whatever positive benefits came from Sabean’s brilliant answer to the former. Zito’s performance in 2007 makes Philip Humber's progress in AAA look remarkable.

Whether Omar Minaya could’ve predicted Zito’s pedestrian 2007 is debatable, but no one honestly cares at this point. Needless to say, the average Mets fan cannot be happier about the performance of the rotation. John Maine, our projected back-end starter this year, was all but robbed of an All-Star game roster spot this year, and gives Mets fans a flare of confidence every time he steps on the mound. Oliver Perez, who was in AAA at this time last year trying to smooth out his freakish mechanics, has been every bit as good as Maine, and comes with an eccentric attitude. Regardless of how old he is, Orland Hernandez continues to dazzle Mets fans, seemingly throwing one gem after the other.

Despite all this, well, Mets fans are now concerned. No, that’s not a reflection of just how spoiled most of us are, because Maine and Perez’s recent performances resemble that of a train wreck. Both haven’t been the same since the All-Star break, but in August they’ve been purely dreadful. Maine has an atrocious 10.38 era, while Perez has been only slightly better with a 7.06 era. In the eyes of most people, these are just the normal ups and downs of a major league season, but a closer examination says otherwise.

Starting with Perez, his ineffectiveness with Pittsburgh following his breakout season in 2004 was largely the result of his ability (or lack thereof) to miss bats, given his fly ball tendencies. After compiling an elite strikeout rate of 29.8% in 2004, that number dropped to just 20.5% in 2005, followed up by a staggering 16.8% in 2006. The strange part is, Perez’s peripherals in the month of August are consistent with how he’s performed this entire year. The same goes for John Maine. His peripherals in the month of August (19.7% K rate, 13.6% BB rate) are only slightly worse than they’ve been this entire year, and certainly not enough to warrant his atrocious era.

BABIP is a controversial stat that generates stat-sectarian warfare among nearly everybody, but when you consider that precisely what Maine and Perez can completely control haven’t differed from how they’ve pitched this entire year, there’s little doubt luck has something to do with it. This is not to say they haven’t and will not be solid pitchers, but that their skill simply does not correlate with their remarkable success early on. Will they continue to struggle as they have thus far? The law of averages says yes, but how much? Well, Perez’s that much from .300 (.277), so he should continue to experience a slight regression. Maine’s BABIP of .259 is even lower, so we should expect a bit of a downfall as he moves forward.

The ageless wonder Orlando Hernandez has been the most consistent pitcher this entire year, and he hasn’t followed suit with the rest of the rotation in August. As discomforting as it might seem for Mets fans, though, we shouldn’t become too accustomed to this when September rolls around. But is there something to the fact Hernandez’s BABIP is a ridiculously low .229?

For hitters, we’d be quick to point out their batted ball distribution, but LD rates are something that a pitcher exhibits little control over. Therefore, I looked to see if Hernandez is one of the rare types of pitchers prone to outperforming his DIPS:

1998 BABIP: .272

1999 BABIP: .257

2000 BABIP: .259

2001 BABIP: .262

2002 BABIP: .264

2004 BABIP: .307

2005 BABIP: .323

2006 BABIP: .284

What this information tells us is that, while there’s a small chance Hernandez might regain the ability to outperform his DIPS as he did earlier in his career, he’ll still likely experience some regression.

Will the Mets' rotation fail them come crunch time? Like anything else, it’s possible. The fact is though, Tom Glavine is no longer the "go to" guy he once was, and Pedro Martinez is analogous with the phrase "Ya Gotta Believe" at this point. The fact is, Mets no longer seem to boast the starting pitching edge when the real season begins in just a week from now.
 

You can contact Matt at: matthimelfarb@gmail.com and check out his blog Cyclones Nation.