Strike Before the Stove Gets Hot

By Jack Flynn
Posted Tuesday, December 2, 2008

Omar Minaya unwittingly made a mistake in late October, when the Mets re-signed Fernando Tatis to a one-year deal worth a little over $1 million.

Many observers sang Minaya’s praises for bringing Tatis back, and I can honestly say that I was among those voices at the time. Tatis had just been named Comeback Player of the Year for his performance in 2008 and had proven to be a valuable utility player at four different positions for the Mets. Minaya himself had learned from past mistakes by only offering Tatis a one-year deal, having sufficiently been burned by recent two-year deals given to Julio Franco and Marlon Anderson.

So what has changed since then? Minaya’s mistake, as it turns out, was not in re-signing Tatis – it was in not waiting longer to see how the free agent market developed.

Monday night was Major League Baseball’s deadline for ballclubs to offer arbitration to free agents, which is always an interesting indication of where the market is going. This offseason, however, is proving to be very unique because of the number of Type A free agents who were not offered arbitration.

Three of the top five free agent outfielders – Adam Dunn, Pat Burrell and Bobby Abreu – were not offered arbitration by their teams. This makes them free agents in the truest sense of the word and infinitely more attractive to prospective buyers.

Remember, the best free agents – those classified as Type A – will also cost their new team a first-round draft pick. Signing multiple Type As in one off-season will result in losing more draft picks. The organization that squanders away too many of these picks will find itself with a barren farm system, one that perpetuates an endless cycle of signing more free agents to fill holes that can’t be patched up internally.

Now, with players like Dunn, Burrell and Abreu all available for literally nothing more than money, this is suddenly a terrific off-season for signing a corner outfielder. The Mets just happen to have six openings on their 40-man roster right now and the shaky prospect of a Tatis/Daniel Murphy platoon in left field in 2009.

It would be a terrible mistake for the Mets not to make a strong run at signing Dunn, Burrell or Abreu for next season and beyond. All three players are legitimate stars offensively and each would fortify a lineup that begins to thin out by the time you reach the sixth spot.

Minaya mentioned earlier in the off-season that his financial focus was going to be on pitching, but that goes out the window when you can try to play Dunn, Burrell and Abreu off of each other in an attempt to get a more club-friendly deal financially. It’s a simple equation, really – if you can get a player worth $15 million a season on the open market for $12 million instead, you’ve gotten yourself a very good deal.

My personal preference would be Bobby Abreu. He's no longer the perennial .300-plus hitter he was in his late 20s, but the average has only dropped slightly and the slugging percentage and the extra-base hits have remained consistent. He will probably turn out to be the cheapest of the three as well, perhaps commanding no more than the 3 year, $36 million deal Jose Guillen got from the Kansas City Royals last year.

What has set Abreu apart for most of his career has been his walk rate. He had an eight-season run earlier in his career of 100 walks or more every year, finishing all but one of those seasons with an on-base percentage over .400. Strangely, Abreu’s walk rates have significantly diminished in his previous two seasons with the New York Yankees, a strange decline phase in the sense that it is the polar opposite of what many veteran hitters go through in their mid-30s.

Most players, as the bat gets slower, see a spike in their walk rates and a decline in batting average and extra-base hits. Abreu’s hit rate has remained consistent, however, suggesting that his trademark selectivity has either mysteriously disappeared or was not encouraged by his former club. I’m betting that it was the latter.

If Abreu goes back to being himself and starts walking 100 times a year instead of 70 times, he would make an excellent #2 hitter between Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran. Ryan Church would bat sixth and play left field, leaving the bottom of the order for the catcher and the second baseman. Church's ability to play both corner outfield positions would allow the Mets to play Abreu in his natural position of right field.

Where would all this leave Murphy? He was playing second base in the Arizona Fall League and missed out on winter ball because of leg problems. As exciting as the beginning of Murphy’s career was last season, it’s easy to forget that he put up a .258/.337/.382 line in his final 101 at-bats of the year. Those are not corner outfield numbers – especially not when established stars like Dunn, Abreu or Burrell are available.

Instead, signing an outfielder would allow the Mets to use Murphy as a super-utility man, with two or three starts a week at second base and one or two more starts a week in either left field or a corner infield position. Luis Castillo, who by all indications will be back in 2009, will get several days a week to rest his aching legs and Murphy will get to try out at several different positions. Over the course of the season, Murphy would get 350-plus plate appearances to allow the Mets a chance to see what they really have in him.

The Mets are committed to six outfielders for 2009 (Tatis, Murphy, Church, Anderson, Carlos Beltran and Endy Chavez). Now, to sign one of these available corner outfielders Minaya absolutely must rid himself of Anderson, especially if the Mets decide to carry 12 pitchers.

If he can do so, Murphy and Tatis can shift from a platoon role in left field to utility roles at five different positions. Chavez, still a terrific defensive outfielder even if he can’t hit, would then back up Beltran in center. The only open field position remaining would be for a middle infielder to mostly back up Reyes. That new-look bench would private depth, flexibility and two very good pinch-hitting options in Murphy and Tatis.

I choose to believe that Omar Minaya read the market well and that having so many spots open on the 40-man roster was a calculated move on his part. Now, he needs to improve his club by exploiting a glaring market inefficiency and signing a quality corner outfielder on the cheap. Doing so will ease Daniel Murphy into his first full major league season, use both Murphy and Fernando Tatis more judiciously and will give the Mets a more dangerous lineup in 2009.

Jack Flynn is still coping with the loss of two straight National League East titles, but found writing this piece to be remarkably therapeutic. Check out his blog, Productive Outs and Crackerjack, for off-season updates and occasional lamentations.