Take A Chance On Me

By Jack Flynn
Posted Wednesday, May 14, 2008

During Sunday’s game against the Cincinnati Reds, Mets’ play-by-play man Gary Cohen said on television that the home team was on a pace for the second-most relief pitcher appearances in MLB history. The announcers then began discussing the possibility that, because of the frenetic pace at which relievers are being used by the Mets so far this season, they may need to consider adding an eighth hurler to the bullpen at some point.

There will be no need to do that right away, now that Jorge Sosa was designated for assignment on Tuesday. Matt Wise is finally coming off the disabled list, set to rejoin what for the moment remains a seven-man bullpen. He will provide a fresh arm for a relief corps that has been ridden like a mule for the first six weeks of the season.

Sosa had already appeared in 20 of the Mets’ first 36 games – a shockingly high number when you consider how consistently ineffective he has been. You have to wonder why manager Willie Randolph continued to go to the well with Sosa over and over again in 2008; perhaps he was trying to justify Omar Minaya’s short-sighted decision to guarantee Sosa $2 million last winter.

Wise's contract ($1.2 million for one year, only $750,000 guaranteed) is an example of what smart general managers will do in the off-season - they find guys who are potential bargains and invite them to compete for a spot in the bullpen, with no strings attached. Sosa's contract was an example of what not-so-smart general managers will do in the off-season - they lock up career mediocrities at prices so exorbitant that they become a financial albatross when they inevitably regress to the mean.

By signing Sosa to guaranteed money, Minaya may have unnecessarily handcuffed himself when putting together his 2008 roster. Reliever performance is highly volatile, which is exactly why it's a bad idea to guarantee too many bullpen spots before spring training even starts. Year after year, relievers come out of nowhere to produce career seasons, only to fade into oblivion a year or two after the league figures them out.

Take a look at the list of relievers who have pitched 15 innings so far this season (on pace for 72 innings in a full season) and have an ERA under 2.50 and a WHIP under 1.000. Only six pitchers make the cut – Jim Johnson. Carlos Marmol, Dan Wheeler, Taylor Buchholz, Matt Albers and Matt Herges. Only Wheeler and Herges are signed for more than one year or $1 million.

Expand the parameters to a 3.00 ERA and a 1.150 WHIP and you add four more names, including such luminaries as Reynel Pinto, Aquilino Lopez and JP Howell. These have been the most effective relievers in baseball for the first 20 percent of the season – and virtually all of them are on a one-year deal and making less than $500,000 a year.

Is sample size an issue? Of course – but only if you plan on sticking with these guys once they start pitching closer to their career form. But since nearly all of them are cheap and easily replaced, they are invaluable precisely because they can be taken out of the mix once their luck begins to run out.

So let’s be clear about one thing – there is never a need for a major league ballclub to carry eight relievers at a time. A good general manager will construct his roster in a way that makes optimal use out of the sixth and seventh spots in the ‘pen, essentially by not guaranteeing them anything more than a chance to pitch if they are effective. He then has the freedom to shuttle relievers in and out of those spots as he sees fit, based not only on how well they pitch but also on how frequently they’re being used.

You have a reliever who is on pace for 90 appearances after the first six weeks of the season? (The Mets actually had three before designating Sosa for assignment.) Give him a month on the farm, pitching every fourth day or so and building their arm strength back up for the summer months. You have another reliever who’s struggling badly? Demote him or release him and take a chance on someone from the minors or one of the many relievers that hit the waiver wire in the first few months of the season.

Look no further than the Milwaukee Brewers to see how general managers have handcuff themselves with too many guaranteed pitching contracts. GM Doug Melvin will pay over $4 million to two pitchers who aren't even on their roster right now. Claudio Vargas had to be released before the Brewers even broke camp, earning $900,000 despite not making a regular season appearance. At least Melvin was smart enough to terminate the contract when he did – the Brewers would’ve been on the hook for another $2.7 million had he employed Vargas beyond Opening Day.

Meanwhile, Vargas will actually be making his first major league appearance of the season tonight – for the Mets, who snapped him up with a minor-league deal and sent him to the minors to presumably work out the kinks.

Then last week, Derrick Turnbow was released by Milwaukee, perhaps putting an end to his Brewers career. The Brewers made another big mistake after the 2005 season - they signed Turnbow to a three-year contract extension on the strength of one good season. They were rewarded with an awful 2006, a decent but inconsistent 2007 and a dismal start to the 2008 season that led to his release.

Turnbow just accepted an assignment to Triple-A, where he'll begin to rehabilitate what's left of his career. If Melvin hadn’t acted decisively with Vargas, he would’ve had to explain to Brewers owner Mark Attanasio why he was spending over $7 million on one guy who was pitching for the Mets and another guy who is pitching for the Nashville Sounds.

Tuesday’s roster moves provided a little bit of breathing room for the Mets, even though it cost them over $1.5 million to be rid of Sosa and to get that flexibility. It’s a small price to pay for a big-market team, but that doesn’t mean Omar Minaya shouldn’t be taught a lesson from all this.

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