The Good Kind of Quandary

By John "Metstradamus" Coppinger
Posted Friday, May 25, 2007

It’s my time of the month.

(No, not that time of the month.)

It’s that time of the month where I, Metstradamus, wonders when Aaron Heilman is going to get traded. But really…I’m not just grasping at straws here. Or as they would say on “24”, this is not a drill. We have some serious evidence that Aaron Heilman’s skids are being greased for a ride out of Shea Stadium for good.

Evidence, thy name is Joe Smith.

It’s not a name that’s going to inspire much fear in the opposition. In fact, when some people hear “Joe Smith”, they wonder if he’s really a part of the witness protection program just posing as a major league pitcher. While it would make for great television to find out that Joe was really a secret agent that couldn’t think of a better alias than “Joe Smith”, there’s a subplot happening that’s just as interesting.

A couple of weeks ago, Chris Russo was on one of his “I’m here to minimize all the good that the Mets are doing” riffs, when he mentioned that Joe Smith had to show him something in the eighth inning before Russo could take him seriously (like Joe Smith’s existence rides on the acceptance of a babbling nutcase with a radio show). Well, Joe Smith is a rookie that’s been more towards the middle of the bullpen than the back end, so why does Joe Smith need to be in the eighth inning anyway?

Of course, what happens not days later but Smith comes in the eighth inning and gives up a grand slam, making Russo look like a genius. Curious that Smith was in to minimize the damage in the eighth and not Heilman, but with the Mets behind instead of ahead, and with Heilman having pitched the night before (and giving up a two run home run to the same hitter who hit the grand slam off of Smith, I might add), it was hardly the smoking gun. It was more like an aberration.

Or was it?

Because during the first game of the Yankee series, who came in to face Derek Jeter in the eighth inning and a one run lead? Not Heilman, who hadn’t pitched in four days…but Smith. And on Wednesday night, who came in and punched out Edgar Renteria, Larry Jones, and Jeff Francoeur with a 3-0 lead over the Braves? Again, not Heilman…who hadn’t pitched in three days. But it's Joe Smith, unexpectedly showing Chris Russo that he can indeed pitch in the eighth inning.

Now there’s probably a perfectly good explanation for all of this. Willie Randolph is just conserving Heilman for the long haul. Or, Randolph wants to see what the rookie is made of in big spots. Perhaps, Heilman is nursing an injury. But the conspiracy theorist in me is always wondering if there’s more involved here. Guillermo Mota (who minor league hitters are hitting .316 against in his PCL “rehab” stint of five innings) is a mere five games away from returning to the Mets. The easy answer is to bring along Mota at the expense of Ambiorix Burgos or Aaron Sele. But then you have an interesting dynamic: three guys who can pitch the eighth inning.

You have Smith, who the Mets will not trade. You have Mota, who has no trade value right now. And you have Heilman, who easily has the most trade value of the three. Hmmm.

You have Smith, who’s a rookie and is happy to be here. You have Mota, who will be happy to have a job in the major leagues after what he pulled. And you have Heilman, who…well, when was the last time Aaron Heilman was truly happy (at least with his role in the bullpen)? Hmmm.

Now I’m not beating the drum for Heilman’s departure…far from it. As frustrating as Aaron can be, the bullpen isn’t as strong this season as it was last season. Having three guys that are capable of getting three big outs in the eighth inning is a luxury that most teams don’t have. And if the Mets are going to be one of those teams that are built for the playoffs, those three are going to have to be a part of it.

But what if the Mets decide to upgrade at second base? What if the Marlins decide that they want to pull the trigger on a Dontrelle Willis deal? What if there’s another starter that happens to pop up on the trade deal? Can they really make a major upgrade without having Heilman as part of the deal? Would they really want to do it with anybody else? And most importantly, can they afford to do it with Heilman if Joe Smith isn’t battle tested, which he now is?

Those of you who are familiar with my musings know that I’ve been speculating about an Aaron Heilman trade for months now, for various reasons. It just always seems to make sense, and the Mets are running out of time to get the most trade value out of Heilman. What Joe Smith provides is some flexibility in case the Mets ever do decide to pull the trigger.

 

Joe Smith and Aaron Heilman are just two of the Mets that you can talk about with me, on The Musings and Prophecies of Metstradamus. In fact, why set boundaries? You can talk about whichever Met you want.