The Himelfarb Doctrine

By Matt "The Stat" Himelfarb
Posted Monday, May 7, 2007

Of all the corny tidbits I could've chosen to best define how key figures in the prospect ranking industry have flat out lied to you, the following witty quote - that otherwise wouldn't fly with the times - is less an effort than an explanation as to why routine readers of F.U. continuously abandon their worries of paying the next bill, or having to drive to work listening to free radio and supplementing it with their now daily morning reading.

"A young pitcher's hype is only as good as his fastball." - Matt Himelfarb, Preamble, Revenge of the Nerds, Part Two.

Yada, yada, yada.

I'm not here to spoil a feel-good story as popular Bloggers have noted, or for that matter, touch a nerve for all intent and purpose of sparking a good debate. Mind you, the latter was my dad's initial reaction after, not my John Maine article (by that point, he was all but completely used to rather incredulous statements), but placing Philip Humber as my number one prospect - ahead of both Mike Pelfrey and Fernando Martinez.

So, as I prepare to unearth my evaluation on several of the Mets "soft-tossing" prospects, perhaps it would be apropos if I recalled some former top pitching hopefuls who, at one time or another, were viewed as potential poster boys for baseball's unremitting religious war.

Then there are fellow pitchers such as Jered Weaver, Barry Zito, and Chad Bradford who fell victim to many of the same prejudices. Surely, their spectacular minor league stat line's were useful when predicting their success in the big leagues, but when you combine that with Weavers cut-slider reminiscent of Mike Mussina, Zito's curveball, and Bradford's unorthodox windup and ability to induce ground balls like no one else with his power sinker told you enough.

Last but not least, who could forget Jose Capellan? Capellan, who dominated at four stops in the Braves system in 2004 before being traded for Dan Kolb, was a lock on almost everybody's top 10 list after flashing a 97 mph fastball accompanied by outstanding strikeouts rates, but, even though it was predominantly scouting publications that labeled him a top prospect, that did so because of his ability to generate velocity with his fastball, not the fact he had barely developed any type of a secondary pitch.

Yet as simple as it sounds to just go back and look at whether, A) The statistics are there and, B) They have the secondary stuff, it doesn't look as though even most legitimate sources are doing so.

Let's take a look at Indians left-handed pitching prospect Scott Lewis. Lewis, who is (not much to my surprise) 0-1 with a 3.57 ERA at AA Akron accompanied by a 5.50 K/BB ratio so far, appeared on noone's top 100 prospect list; not Baseball America, not Project Prospect, not Baseball Prospectus.

Sure, saying that Lewis throws an 88 mph fastball is not only true it's wildly generous but, apparently, no one bothered to notice that he has the best 12-6 curveball in the system to go along with a 4.39 K/BB ratio. 4.39! That's better than Adam Miller, (3.65) Homer Bailey, (3.12) and Yovani Gallardo, (3.68) Is he better than those three? No. Does he warrant being in the top 100? Absolutely.

Here, of course, we have our right handed Scott Lewis; Jacob Ruckle. Ruckle's stuff, aside from a much "faster" fastball, doesn't quite match Lewis's. but the stark deception of his delivery, and his over the top curveball in the 74-77 mph range, has enabled him to go a combined 9-6-2.69 era. in 2006 and a 5.06, yes an improvement over Lewis' rate, K/BB ratio. So far at St. Lucie, where he's splitting his time starting and long relief, he's gone 1-1 with a 1.17 era.

Let me be clear and straight to the point. The fact that Lewis throws 88 mph is important, but so is the fact that he has one of the best curveballs and K/BB ratios in the minors and has been, for the most part, blatantly ignored.

Of course, in the end, the Himelfarb doctrine - which contains a disproportionate yet clear regard for all tools when it comes to evaluating prospects - will suggest that Mike Devaney, and Kevin Mulvey, will most likely follow in the footsteps of Petit. Deveney, despite winning the organization's pitcher of the year award this past September, struggled with his command last year while splitting time between St. Lucie and Binghamton, ( 1.84 K/BB ratio.) His arsenal is comparable to that of Brian Bannister and, so far, he's 0-2 with a 4.50 ERA at AA Binghamton.

Mulvey, despite having an impressive outing this past week, allowing one run on three hits in six innings, has advanced command for his age, but also none of his four pitches are even considered above average. Not to mention his stats at Villanova, which are unimpressive as well.

I might not be able to change someone's mind when it comes to taking a more comprehensive look at the FLARK and GLARP numbers, but if you're going to judge by a pitcher's sheer velocity, than, yeah, I got a problem with that.

Feel you haven't taken an in depth look at guys who throw 88 mph? Check out prospectpit.blogspot.com where Matt "The Stat" Himelfarb takes an early, early look at guys prepared to make a jump onto perhaps the most enigmatic top 100 prospect list next year, which will be released on F.U. in November.

You can also contact him at matthimelfarb@gmail.com