The Real Deal Or Not In AA?

By Matt Himelfarb
Posted Monday, May 28, 2007

Sure, the great General Managers of the era are known for exploiting inefficiencies in the market, ala Billy Beane, but a lot of their success can be the result of irrationality among their fellow executives. From how to determine the best defensive players, to the apropos way to manage your bullpen, up until the shortest distance between two straight lines: the superior AAA player and the average major leaguer.

Enter the next refuge of idiots: A.A.S. (Double-A Syndrome)

Incurable, hardly preventable, and somewhat predictable, both numbers and talent become practically irrelevant when a player makes the jump from Single A to Double A. "[At] Double-A, I was kind of blown away," says Tampa Devil Rays third baseman Evan Longaria. "From what I hear, that is the hardest jump -- from A ball to Double-A, because a lot of those guys are almost ready for the big leagues. They can make that jump. It was a shock. Because you go from high A, where you see one or two really good starters a week, but in Double-A it was every day, someone throwing 92. It was a little bit different."

Here at F.U., we've decided that for all intent and purpose of knocking "The Green Pointers" out of first place in the F.U. fantasy league, how to better educate fans who hope to cherry pick the David Wright's of Single-A ball, particularly fellow Mets prospects.

Jose Castro, SS, St. Lucie Mets, (20): Athleticism. There's no other word that Omar Minaya uses more prevalently when referring to how he wants to build the New York Mets.

There's also no other word that's more overrated in the prospect ranking industry.

So whatever happened to tri-star athletes such as 2004 Brooklyn MVP Ambiorix Concepcion, Wayne Lydon, or even the so-called big loss of current Cubs outfielder Angel Pagan, once stalled and stuck in Norfolk?

All of these players blatant weakness has been a very high GB percentage. For speedsters, this type of approach can actually work very well in the lower minors due to bad playing fields and bad fielders. However, this type of approach can't work in the long run, as the fielders will improve at higher levels, but more importantly, you actually have to be able to hit and make contact at the big league level. Therefore, it's no surprise that nearly all of these players had a very low ISOP; (isolated power percentage) is very low.

Simply put, Angel Pagan's success in a very short stint with the Cubs this year is because he has dramatically improved his GB percentage. Pagan's GB percentage in the minors which ranged anywhere from 45 percentage to 60 percentage, is currently at 12 percent, and his ISOP, which was anywhere from .80 to .150, is at .281. In other words, it's highly likely that Pagan will fall in the foreseeable future.

This trend is certainly not limited to the Mets though. Several prospects have been seriously overrated; Cameron Maybin, Dexter Fowler, even Jacoby Ellsbury.

With that being said, does the flashy Jose Castro's chance of sustaining a .294 average have any chance of lasting next year at AA with a GB percentage of 66 percent and an ISOP of .79? I'd think not.

Deal or no Deal? No Deal.

Robert Parnell, RHSP, St. Lucie Mets, (22): I'd say Parnell could be a frontline starter, but no one else would agree with me, so I'll leave him as a solid number three to above average number two as of right now. Many pitchers such as Kevin Mulvey contain four to five pitches in their arsenal, but considering Parnell has a sinking fastball that has been reportedly topping out at 97 mph, along with a slurvy slider with potential as a breaking ball, is a 3rd pitch really necessary? No.

It's unlikely that Parnell can keep up his fantastic strikeout rate this year, (28.2%) but there's also a chance we haven't seen the best of Parnell. In addition, we've seen prospects such as Dallas Trahern, with an 18 percent strikeout rate, compete at AA with a high ground ball percentage, which Parnell certainly has. (63 percent) I don't know if its Mike Pelfrey's struggles or Oliver Perez's success, but I think people should start talking about him.

Deal or no Deal? Real deal.

Jacob Ruckle, RHSP, St. Lucie Mets, (21): I'm going to jump on the Macks Mets bandwagon and say this kid, first and foremost, doesn't belong in the bullpen. There are several reasons why this experiment isn't working. Last year Ruckle was throwing about 88 to 91 mph, but has been hitting 85 mph on several occasions so far this season, which suggests he isn't capable of the normal bullpen routine of getting warmed up. He also has had terrible control working out of the bullpen this year, ( 1.67 K/BB ratio) which is a far cry from his 2006 rate (5.06)

Last but not least, the mere fact that given Joe Smith's success with his funky delivery, Ruckle will be successful, is ludicrous. Smith is inducing ground balls at an unprecedented rate this year, while Ruckle doesn't have the sinking action on his fastball required to do so. If there was a starting version of Joe Smith, he would be Brandon Webb, and Ruckle, not this year or last year, has shown any signs of becoming Brandon Webb.

With that being said, I still think Ruckle's control while in the rotation will keep him a float at AA, and he will end up as a 4 th or 5th starter, possible a Jeff Suppan clone.

Deal or no Deal? Somewhere in between.

 

You can contact Matt Himelfarb at: matthimelfarb@gmail.com