The Twin Factor

By Matt "The Stat" Himelfarb
Posted Wednesday, November 14, 2007

See, I told you a week ago that intelligent minds would be less than enthralled by A-Rod’s MVP performance in 2007. Backed by Omar Minaya’s shrewd media relations move in actually talking to super-agent Scott Boras, and confirmed by Ken Davidoff of Newsday, he will new focus his sights on acquiring a top-notch starter.

That is easier said than done.

Of course there will be options. If the Los Angeles Angels win the ongoing bidding war for A-Rod, they will ultimately send a nuclear missile into Athletics Nation. In return, Billy Beane will trade every arbitration-eligible player, including Joe Blanton. Oh, and yes; he will still be intent on receiving Lastings Milledge.

This brings us, ladies and gentlemen, to The Twin Factor.

Right now, the Twins control the rights to Johan Santana and the lesser-known Matt Garza, Scott Baker, and Kevin Slowey, all of whom are on the Mets' radar, and with the exception of Santana, are cost-effective options. What they do not control the rights to are an amiable replacement for Torii Hunter in center field or an adequate third baseman, among other needs.

Let’s start with Santana. In a must-read column over at The Hardball Times, Jacob Jackson questions the legitimacy of the Twins' ridiculous demands for Santana: an everyday player in addition to three prospects. Due to the fact Santana has, in his eyes, already peaked, and the Yankees, one of the few serious bidders in the Santana sweepstakes, are unwilling to surrender Philip Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, and even Ian Kennedy, Jackson believes a more plausible deal would include Melky Cabrera, Wilson Betemit, Shelley Duncan, and Darrell Rasner. Would the Mets be able to pull off a similar package consisting of Carlos Gomez, Philip Humber, and Ruben Gotay? I would think so.

Yet, what happens if the Twins serendipity allows them to resign Santana, or the more foregone conclusion, that they are able to fill whatever offensive needs in a deal similar to the one supposed by Jackson?

Enter Matt Garza.

No, Scott Baker and Kevin Slowey are not the answers at this point. Sure, they are both young and have unheard-of command at their age, but they are simply less expensive versions of Carlos Silva. But for a team that, without Santana, will still have Slowey, Baker, Boof Bonser, and Glenn Perkins to spare, is Garza, with an ace like fastball and curveball, going to carry the outrageous demands of the A.J. Burnetts and Dan Harens of the world? I would think not. A closer look reveals just how much this trade benfits both team's interests:

A) There is no better time to trade Garza, and as I mentioned above, there is plenty of replacement value.

B) Garza represents the exact type of pitcher the Mets are looking for. He carries the pedigree of an innings eater, having pitched over 175 innings last year between AAA Rochester and the big club. While his peripherals were largely mediocre in 2007, he has dominated at nearly every level before.

C) While Gomez has an exorbitant amount of potential, he is going to have to take the same road as Jose Reyes if he does fulfill that, and, contrary to popular belief, he is still light years behind Lastings Milledge. He is swinging at nearly everything and anything right now in the Arizona Fall League, and while he seems to hit the ball hard from time to time, his power potential has never translated to on-field results. (His SLG% in AAA last year [.414] is tainted by the fact there is nearly a 100 point difference between the slugging averages in the Pacific Coast League and the International League.) The Mets are the type of big-market team that cannot afford to develop him alongside Lastings Milledge, but the Twins can do so, and he will provide more far more value for Minnesota in center than he will for the Mets in right.

D) Allows the Mets to insert Orlando Hernandez into the rotation.

Let's face it: we are talking about the possibility of acquiring two aces at a relatively low price.

That will be up to the Twins to decide.

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