The Window of Opportunity Is Quickly Closing

By Jaap Stijl
Posted Wednesday, June 10, 2009

"Study the past if you would define the future."
-- Confucius

Two games behind as they battle the Phillies in a three-game series this week, the only thing the Mets can say for certain as they prepare for this already-crucial series is that come the end of the series, they will not hold sole possession of first place in the NL East. No matter what happens.

For those of you who have spit up your coffee (or whatever bevvy you're using to drown your sorrows as you are reading this) at the absurdity of the Mets sweeping the Phillies to tie the NL East, yes, the notion is a silly one, ridiculous even. It's a sad reality to have to concede so early in the season but the future is written out on the wall, right there. This is not a good time for the Mets to be facing their biggest rivals.

After all, against two of the worst teams in the National League, the Pirates and the Nats, the Mets only won two out of six games to give them a losing record for June already. And that's before they host the Phillies and before they visit the quirky new Yankee Stadium for a trio against the Yankees. That's even before they've hosted the defending AL Champion Tampa Bay Rays or the St Louis Cardinals, or the Yankees or even gone on the road to Milwaukee to face the NL Central -leading Brewers.

No, June will not an easy month for the Mets. It might even well be the month the wheels come off completely.

Making matters more difficult, as they visit Citi Field, the Phillies have the best road record in baseball. By far. 21-8. They crave the pressure of being on the road perhaps as much as the pressure of one-run games. Only the Dodgers and Padres have a better record in one-run games. These Phillies have flaws, no doubt but none in character and the notion of them going down, losing even two out of the three games this week, is almost laughable to them and perhaps even to us.

The Mets? Well, they do have the third-best home record in the National League. However, most of the games they've played at home this season have been against the likes of the Marlins, the Nats and the Pirates with very little decent competition in front of the home crowd yet this season so you might say that home record is a bit tainted.

I won't pain you with a detailed, position-by-position, inning-by-inning breakdown of the series against the Phillies. In the midst of this past week's disappointments and disgust you might remember only a few weeks ago, after the lowest moment of the season in Los Angeles, the Mets had to travel to Boston for a three game series, one which we all fully expected the Mets would only barely avoid getting swept in. And yet the Mets won two out of three at Fenway.

So in theory, given the Mets' historical preference for giving half-efforts against lesser teams and trying to rise to the occasion against the better teams, you might want to hold on to that tiny thread of hope, that notion that they can take at least two out of three against the Phillies. They've got a better team batting average than the Phillies, they're far better at getting men on base than the Phillies, better and faster on the base paths (although probably make twice as many stupid plays in the name of aggression), which may be why despite the last three points, they have still scored far less frequently than the Phillies.

The Mets starting pitching is superior to the the Phillies starters and their bullpen, (despite or because of the absence of J.J Putz) is better.

However, whereas the Phillies are the league's best fielders, the Mets are one of the worst. And of the two Manuels, well, I'll leave it to your own prejudices to decide which one is the better manager. One won the World Championship last season the other, well, allegedly, he tries. And of the two one has unquestionable character, unshakeable will and historic capacity for not quitting. The other, as we all know so well, have choked down turkey-sized Septembers two seasons in a row and take turns finding different ways to lose when it matters most.

This six game stretch against two of their greatest rivals won't be the most important games of the season but as infeasible as it is that the Mets could take all three from the Phillies and gain a share of the NL East lead, the more possible scenario; that the Mets barely avoid getting swept by the Phillies, who have won 8 of their last 10, means they would enter a homer-happy Yankee Stadium a full five games behind the Phillies already. It will still be early enough in the season to avoid hitting that bright red panic button but if the month of June turns out as badly as the series against the Pirates and the Nats foreshadow, this could be a long, hot and miserable summer for the Mets.