The Xavier Nady of the Mets

By Matt Himelfarb
Posted Tuesday, July 29, 2008

Xavier Nady’s almost meritorious climb from the unknown, injury prone centerpiece in the deal that sent the well-liked Mike Cameron to San Diego almost two years ago to the guy who is expected to be the difference maker down the stretch for the New York Yankees has captured the attention, deservedly so, of the New York press corps over the last few days. On the other hand, the Mets upcoming acquisition of a mirror image of Nady has been greeted with far less enthusiasm.

Nope, I am not talking about Manny Ramirez, Raul Ibanez, or Randy Winn. I am talking about Ryan Church, whom, after playing sporadically since the end of May, is expected to begin his rehab assignment soon and join the Mets subsequently afterwards.

Instead of platooning in the lineup as many Mets fans had hoped during the winter, Church and Nady have turned out to be the lefty-right version of each other this year. The statistical similarities are stark; both have posted an identical ISOP (.205), and both are probably not as good as their numbers seem to indicate this year. Moreover, the success of both trades is largely contingent upon the top talent going the other way.

In the Mets case, that guy was Lastings Milledge. It is widely accepted that the Mets may have based the trade on no reason and purely their private agenda; they did not like the fact Milledge had an interest outside of baseball, nor that he could be cocky at times. And Willie and co. may have simply preferred a veteran presence- because we all know how those spring chickens got in the way of the Mets in 2007. And Brian Schneider’s defense has proven to be far from invincible. And the Mets may have even executed the deal because they knew the outpouring of support from big media would placate the fan’s tensions.

And you know what? After being one of the staunchest critics of the trade since it went down, I am happy the Mets pulled the trigger- and it goes beyond the fact is no one could have predicted that Church’s most prominent weakness out of an otherwise well rounded game would be sliding.

Since coming to New York, Church, at one time or another has shown the attitude needed to play here. From day one, he was inoculated for failure and the target of a large segment of the Metropolitans fan base for what was thought to be perhaps Omar’s greatest folly. One only has to take a trip down memory lane and look at the incessant bashing Victor Zambrano encountered since day one to understand the magnitude of what Church was up against entering the season. To paraphrase an old joke in American history, Zambrano could work through all of Flushing by night, illuminated by the glow of all of his effigies burning. Unfortunately for Zambrano, no matter if he was performing good or bad, he always did so in the shadow of Scott Kazmir.

Fortunately for our sake, though, there were enough non-masochists at Shea and Church relished his first opportunity to play on a winning team. Sure, the Mets may have dutifully underperformed the first few months of the year and the clubhouse environment was far from welcoming, but Church still managed to hit .319/.387/.479 and 299/.364/.512 in April and May, respectively, after getting away from Washington.

Still, even if Church comes back and plays well down the stretch, there is still some doubt about whether his success over the next few years will come at the expense of Milledge’s long-term potential. In hindsight, that is where I believe Omar and co. cunningness and talent evaluation were put to the test- and came through.

One of the biggest gripes about the trade was that it would have no immediate impact on the Mets. After all, Milledge was just coming off a year in which he hit a very respectable .272/.340/.446 at just twenty-two years old in the big leagues, and he had an excellent track record in the minors as far as plate discipline was concerned. There was no reason to think that Church and Milledge would not produce identical numbers as soon as this year.

Of course, that is not how it turned out. Milledge has struggled mightily in his first full year in the big leagues, hitting .240/.302/.359, largely due to the fact he has immense trouble handling anything outside of a fastball. Now, that is not to say that the Mets do not believe, like many others, that he can make the necessary adjustments and learn to hit the breaking ball. Rather, the Mets saw Milledge’s inherent weakness and put a timetable on when he would be able to adjust to hitting in the big leagues. If it takes him to he is least twenty-five, that is fine and poses no problem to a team like the Nationals.

But in the Mets best interest, they can get at least another three very good years out of Church, and possibly more, if he can follow the route of another late blooming right fielder; Paul O’Neill. While Church has tried to take advantage of right field in Shea and ultimately pulled the ball more, has made nice strides against southpaws by learning to hit the ball the other way- a significant improvement. By the time Church likely does begin to decline, however, they have Fernando Martinez and Wilmer Flores, among others, waiting in the wings.

A bright man once said, “When the facts change, I change. What do you do?”

It is no secret that as we get closer and closer to the deadline, the Mets options for left field are fast dwindling. Nady as well as Clasey Blake, thought to be two of the more favorable options, are off the market, and the Pirates asking price for Jason is rumored to be exorbitantly high.

The good news is that Fernando Tatis continues to hit better and better and is proving to be somewhat of a realistic option the rest of the way. Hence, as I have said before, the Mets have no use for the Raul Ibanez’s or Randy Winn’s of the world. Like stocks and bonds, however, the trade market is all about buying the undervalued commodities.

That guy’s name is Adam Dunn, who has garnered little attention despite the fact he appears to be every bit as available as bay. My colleague Jack Flynn and SNY’s Ted Berg have already written two intelligent pieces in support of Dunn, so there is no point in me reiterating what they have already said. I would, however like to touch on two of the perceived weaknesses with Dunn

The first is that Dunn, as Joel Sherman put it, has “historical problems in clutch situations.” As Jack noted, Dunn’s numbers with RISP are not far from his actual numbers. Still, I can hear the less statistically privy folks shouting, “look at those home runs- and than look at the RBI’s!”

This of course is stupid logic, since RBI’s are totally dependent upon the other player’s on a guy’s team getting in base for him. Further, to prove this, I took a look at how may chases Dunn has had in comparison to other hitters to drive in runs, using a ratio of at-bats with runners in scoring position to total at-bats (AB:RISP). Here are Dunn’s numbers throughout his career:

2008: 0.25

2007: 0.27

2006: 0.24

2005: 0.23

2004: 0.25

Despite Dunn’s home run prowess, he has placed in the top ten in RBI’s just once in the National League: 2007. This is no surprise, since Dunn was given more opportunities to drive in runs than at any other time in his career, not to mention the fact that the Reds ranked 7th in OPS. that year.

Out of all the RBI leaders thus far in 2008, however, fifty percent of those in the top ten have an AB: RISP ratio better than 0.30, and all of them pass the 0.27 threshold. Ironically, Carlos Beltran, who is routinely vituperated on talk radio due to his reputation as being “unclutch”- which is, contrary to most saber-privy folks, is actually quite legitimate, since Beltran tends to perform at his best when the rest of the team is playing well and vice versa- actually has the highest AB:RISP ratio out of the group (0.33). That, in itself, may explain Beltran’s impressive RBI total this year- or perhaps everyone else’s thus far.

Make no mistake, Dunn’s defense is a concern, but with Beltran and Church to the right of him, they can hide him in left field for the rest of the year, and then move him to first base when Fernando Martinez is ready.

Matt is a disgruntled, statistically- and politically-obsessed teenager and appreciates all words of encouragement at: matthimelfarb@gmail.com. You can also check out his blog: matthimelfarb.wordpress.com.