This Year's Barry Zito

By Matt Himelfarb
Posted Wednesday, November 7, 2007

He is the greatest hitter of our time and as phony as a three dollar bill. He is poised to break the all-time home run record and is inoculated to have a bitter relationship with the fans. Thousands will flock to Citi Field to see him, all of whom will hate him.

Because those attributes are just so inseparable when it comes to Alex Rodriguez, most members of the media, in their “I need to take a clear stance’ attitude, have clung to one side or the other.

In many respects, A-Rod is a younger Rudy Guiliani; sure, he comes across as a prima donna with a sheepish smile, but Yankees fans slept better in 2007 knowing A-Rod was single handedly carrying them down the stretch with his offensive performance.

Than you have the other side; the chemistry extremists; the anti-Moneyball, anti-analytical thinking of the game; the fans who adore the gritty ballplayers who give the impression that they run out every play, and often have the exotic facial hair and are undersized.

What is the correct answer? A-Rod is not the right fit for the Mets-because of his performance.

Nope, mind you, not his post-season failures- as if there really were that many- that have been all but completely blown out of proportion by the New York tabloids. Not even David Wright’s defensive performance; He is the type of level headed ballplayer, with his athleticism and quick feet, he would not humiliate himself at first or second base.

More like A-Rod’s performance from now until 2017, in which he will likely earn over $350 million combined. Offensively, defensively, A-Rod is either already on the decline, or will plunge sometime within the near future.

First, if Omar and company are willing to make that commitment, it will start first and foremost with his offensive performance. In a study done by Cyril Morong, an active SABR member, he looked at all players who had 15 or more seasons with 400 or more plate appearances, and found that these players, on average, began a steep decline in their offensive production when they reached the age of 33. (A-Rod will turn 33 in July of 2008) Using RCAA, (runs created above average) Morong’s study showed that player typically reach their peak at age 27, and up until 32, are consistent in their offensive production.(33.46, 33.74, 34.20, 29.94, 30.98, 32.32.) When these players turned 33, however, they than began a steady decline. (Just 24.78) By 37, they were below 20, (17.61) and by 40, they were within single digits. (5.19)

Even Bill James, now a consultant to Theo Epstein with the Boston Red Sox, noted in his 1982 Baseball Abstract that, “most players are declining by age 30; all players are declining by age 33." This proves the point that, A-Rod, not even a year into his contract, will show that he is not immune to decline. Perhaps when the Red Sox appear to be backing away from the A-Rod sweepstakes, you will know why.

Second, you have the defensive dilemma. For the first few years of his contract, A-Rod would likely play third base, given how the Mets Jose Reyes at second experiment worked a few years back. He is already an average fielding third baseman, who, like so many other ballplayers, will be forced to move to first base or to one of the corners outfield- all offensive laden positions. Case closed.

And what happens when these two thing collide? You have an aging player accounting for a quarter of the team’s payroll, and A-Rod immediately becomes the most hated figure in New York. And even if he has one more year left in him, is it going to be another year like 2004, where A-Rod cannot handle the insane media pressure, and performs below expectations? Is he really the type of guy that will sell jerseys and donned the posters outside Citi Field?

Do not believe the hype; A-Rod is this year’s Barry Zito.

You can contact matt at: matthimelfarb@gmail.com