Tuesday Non-Sequiturs

By Matt Himelfarb
Posted Tuesday, July 28, 2009

Even with all the momentum this team has going for them right now, I still have very little faith they are going to make any miracle run. My rational side that checks Baseball Prospectus's Postseason Odds on a daily basis says they have absolutely no shot. After all, even the worst teams win 45% of their games. Yet, for some reason 6.5 games out of the wild card just does not intimidate me.

Regardless, the Mets do not have much to sell. Ed Coleman told a friend of mine at a game awhile back that numerous teams crave Pedro Feliciano. Still, it's questionable if the haul they would receive is nearly enough for them to sacrifice a valuable piece for 2010. Other than that, the only players I would consider selling are Gary Sheffield, Luis Castillo, Brian Schneider, and Livan Hernandez.

You take what you can get with Hernandez and Schneider- salary relief at best, a fringe prospect tops. Gary Sheffield could likely bring back a B-level prospect. The more pressing issue will be Luis Castillo. The Mets would be wise to sell high on the NL's possible comeback player of the year. His salary is really the deciding the factor. Castillo's due less than $2 million the rest of this year, but will earn another $6 million each of the next two years.

Yes, Castillo's got our boy Bill Metsiac looking like Theo Epstein at the helm for predicting Castillo's bounce back year. And Castillo has been a solid cog in the Mets lineup; he has posted a .398 OBP. Even more impressive, he has a cartoonish, league-leading BB/K ratio of 2.47. By comparison, Albert Pujols is in second with 1.97. Fangraphs claims he has already been worth $6 million thus far- and that's with 40% of the season left to play.

So why trade him? For one, his lack of power (.358 SLG%), is somewhat concerning. Despite this, he’s still good enough for 11th among all qualified second-baseman in w/OBA (weighted on-base average), with .344, just one point shy of Cleveland's Asdrubal Cabrera for number ten. His range at second base, however, is detrimental to his value- this is supported by both the eyes and the numbers. More importantly, Castillo's the type of player, to borrow a phrase from Branch Rickey, that's better to trade a year too early than a year too late. He will be entering his age 34-35 seasons the next two years. Even if his health isn't a question, his skills will only diminish with age. Given the Wilpon's possibly precarious financial situation, Castillo's not worth a $12 million bet.

The other interesting trade candidate is Brian Stokes. Some team might be willing to cough up a decent prospect or two for Stokes's tidy 3.63 era. in 39.2 innings of work. His peripherals are below average. His K/9 rate is 4.75, and his BB/9 is 3.63. His HR rate isn't terrible (0.7 per 9 innings), but his HR/FB rate (7.1%), indicates he is due for some regression.

Stokes's stuff can be impressive, however. His heater sits in the 94-97 mph range, and has average to above-average vertical break. It's his horizontal movement that will make or break him. Some night's it's very good, other's it's below average. Thus, despite the lack of sinking action, he has a solid GB% (46%). His secondary offerings are nothing to write home about at this point. Still, given the expected rate of return, there is enough of a reason to keep him.

Fortunately, these decisions can wait until August.

If this team does have any shot at making a wild-card run, I cannot for the life of me figure out how they can pass on Ryan Garko. He almost makes too much sense for this team. He is hitting a very respectable .285/.362/.464 thus far. The average OPS+ among first baseman is 118. Garkos's is only 114, but a tremendous upgrade over Daniel Murphy's 76. If you figure Delgado comes back mid- late August, we are still talking about 75-100 at-bat difference between Garko and Murphy. He could than ease Delgado's transition back by platooning with him at first- career wise, the guy smokes southpaws (.318/.393/.513). He could even spot Sheffield the occasional game in left.

Up until this year, he has generally been regarded as 1b/DH type. In 51 games at first in 2009, however, his UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating), ranks tops among all first baseman. Sample size, yes, but an improvement nonetheless. If he was a free agent next year, he would easily be the top first baseman on the market.

Best of all, the Wilpon's can't cry poverty here- the 28 year-old is currently making the league minimum and enters his first year of arbitration next year.

San Francisco gave up a left-hander by the name of Scott Barnes. Barnes is a finesse kind if of guy: 88-92 mph fastball, good change, show-me curve. He has pitched very well in Advanced A Ball (2.85 era. 9.1 K/9 2.7 BB/9). To put that in perspective though, Dylan Owen and Dillon Gee basically dominated the same way last year with similar stuff; Owen’s been lit up like a Christmas tree in Binghamton this year, and Gee’s fallen off the radar due to injuries.

The Mets A-Ball team has an impressive cache of arms (Kyle Allen, Jeurys Familia, and Robert Carson) to match San Francisco’s offer. From what I’ve read though, Allen and Familia have a much higher ceiling and are two years younger than Barnes. Carson’s a more acceptable comparison- he is a year younger with similar stuff and a very good GB rate. If you want to include an offensive player instead, St. Lucie’s slick fielding center fielder Kirk Nieuwenheis (.251/.343/.406), and another pitching prospect (Scott Shaw, Angel Calero), could have sealed the deal. Whatever the case, it’s not a steep price to pay.

Never put incompetence past this organization.

 

You email me at: matthimelfarb@gmail.com and read his blog: matthimelfarb.wordpress.com