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Posted Monday, July 23, 2007
Philadelphians hate New Yorkers. This type of grudge started sometime after the Revolution, when Philadelphia reigned as the country’s most populated area, a fact only to be obliterated some forty years later when none other than New York made more than a few enhancements, making such an accomplishment possible.
But as much bad blood that exists between the two cities, the type of bad blood that’s less of a family quarrel bound for repair and more of one capitalized by a dozen sports rivalries, both have experienced the same amount of pain. While the Mets might never get six thousand games below .500, the thought of a few painful eras; The "Lovable Loser" era, the "Bobby Bonilla" era, the "Art Howe" era. is just as discomforting. Just about the only collaborative agreement completed in secrecy by both teams was probably the exchanging of fan favorites; Lenny Dykstra, Billy Wagner, etc.. and finally, and probably most recently, they shared the most unbearable pain; the pain of watching a pair of top flight pitching prospects ascend through the system.
You see, about three to four years ago, the supposed future of the Phillies was in A-Ball. A second team high school All-American from Annapolis, Maryland named Gavin Floyd was compiling more than respectful numbers at A+ Clearwater, while just a year out of high school, Cole Hamels, the Phillies' first round pick in 2002, was just a level below Floyd at the time (he’d be promoted July 26th to Clearwater), putting up remarkable numbers (0.84 era, 13.86 K/9 rate). Together, they gave Phillies fans a reason to hope. No matter what the scouting reports said or the statistical data spit out by the computer forecasted, Philadelphia fans were every bit as confident they’d form a dynamic duo over the next decade once they reached the big leagues.
And who could blame them? In every aspect of life, people always have a propensity to romanticize the past. But what made the thrill of having two dazzling pitching prospects in the lower minors was that the past was used as a tool to romanticize the future. To paraphrase that, just as every Mets fan had become convinced having watched Dwight Gooden burst onto the scene in the early 1980s that both Mike Pelfrey and Philip Humber would do the same, Phillies fans were compelled to think that they had a pair of Steve Carltons on their hands.
Now, I could go on and continue on my chronological story of Hamels and Floyd, but that wouldn’t be useful, considering nearly everyone now knows that Floyd is a terrific AAAA player while Hamels is a Cy Young candidate. So the question is, why? Why is Hamels on pace for a Hall of Fame plaque in Cooperstown, while it looks as though Floyd will likely never make any type of major contribution in the major leagues?
Well, while I’ll be the first to say statistics never tell the whole story, particularly in the delicate case of judging pitching prospects, the fact is so and remains that strikeout rates are one of the best indicators of big league success. Sure, there are exceptions, John Maine being a decent example of one off the top of my head, but if you really want to look for a top of the rotation starter, you best put a lot of emphasis in strikeout rates.
With that being said, Floyd did have a nice career in the minor leagues, but never did he post a strikeout rate above 19.3% until his third stint in AAA this year, this time with the Charlotte Knights, a AAA affiliate of the Chicago White Sox. Sure, even with Humber’s strikeout rate being freakishly similar at AAA this year (19.4%), Humber could easily go on to be a number three starter at the big league level. But more likely, not only has Humber disappointed me this year, since I believe a very good fastball-breaking ball combo would produce better results at AAA this year, but throw in the health risk following Tommy John surgery and Humber might never realize his potential.
Now, in the case of Hamels, he did post incredible strikeout rates in his entire minor league career. The problem is, while Pelfrey’s strikeout rates in the minors in 2006 were very good (32.5% with A+. Lucie, 27.5% with AA Bighamton), it’s unclear whether that’d serve as a great barometer of Pelfrey’s future performance, given the fact it’s likely he just blew away hitters in the minors with his fastball and nothing else, a strategy bound to fail in the big leagues. So, does Pelfrey’s 19.1% strikeout rate with AAA New Orleans this year have him headed for failure?
The simple answer is no, and here’s why. The Mets sent Pelfrey down because of terrible results earlier this year, and those terrible results were the residue of throwing nothing but his fastball. Pelfrey was than recalled from AAA because it’s easy to see that he eventually turned it on as the result of improved secondary stuff, particularly his slider:
May 18th: 5.2 innings pitched; 3 strikeouts
May 23rd: 6 innings pitched; 4 strikeouts.
May 28th: 3.2 innings pitched; 1 strikeout
June 3rd: 5 innings pitched; 2 strikeouts
June 9th: 6 innings pitched; 7 strikeouts
June 14th: 5 innings pitched; 7 strikeouts
June 21st: 5.1 innings pitched; 6 strikeouts
If you look at the statistics above, it’s pretty obvious that after June 3rd was when Pelfrey really turned it on and commenced to compile strikeouts. It’s pretty straightforward that this is all the results of a marked improvement in his slider. Further, just for the sake of more emphasis, here’s a comparison of his time with New Orleans in May and June.
May: Strikeout Rate: 11.4% GB%: 53%
June: Strikeout Rate: 22.6% GB%: 65%
That’s a pretty dramatic difference.
Most important, however, is that pitching prospects generally take longer than a year to fully develop. Strikeouts are something that are virtually unteachable and hard to keep up with as a pitcher climbs through the minor league chain, while walk rates can almost certainly be improved upon, which is arguably why Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus developed the theory of K/9*2-BB/9. Therefore, the same should apply to Pelfrey, who has command problems. Could his command problems never be solved? Sure. It’s always been my belief, however, that learning throw a pitch is much harder than learning to command a pitch. Dustin McGowan, Jeremy Guthrie, and even Gil Meche are all examples of pitchers who adhere to many of these theories.
Sometimes fans need to stop dreaming and face the facts. Other times, they need to show a little patience. A quick reality check might help them realize that.
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