Undeservedly, Beltran is Mets' Ugly Duckling

By Bill Baer
Posted Monday, August 4, 2008

New York columnist-slash-gasbag Mike Lupica penned a column yesterday pointing out the state's biggest baseball disappointments. Expectedly, he pointed out Derek Jeter, but because he's gritty and emanates leadership and scraped his elbow one time while playing chess, Lupica gives him a pass. Giambi was mentioned but because he wears exotic underpants and has a mustache borrowed straight from the Akron, Ohio Police Department circa 1982, he gets a pass as well.

The subject of much of Lupica's ire is Carlos Beltran. If all you hear is "$119 million, 15 HR," maybe you can say Beltran isn't really living up to expectations, but anyone who was expecting the 2006 Beltran to show up was destined to be disappointed. He's 31 now, and that extremely productive '06 season -- .388 OBP/.594 SLG; 38 2B, 41 HR, 116 RBI, 18 SB -- came in what we can call his prime, his age 29 season.

This season, Beltran has a 117 OPS+ which is right in line with his career average. His power is down, as evidenced by the .071 drop in SLG between '07 and '08, but he's getting on base above his career average, not uncommon for players who are just past their prime.

Prorating his counting statistics over the rest of the season, Beltran is on pace to finish with 37 2B, 22 HR, 108 RBI, and 24 SB. The only real difference between this season and 2006 is the amount of home runs.

In a lineup where most players are having great seasons -- Jose Reyes, Carlos Delgado, David Wright, Fernando Tatis, Ryan Church -- Beltran's normal production looks unappetizing. But Beltran has never been accepted with open arms in New York anyway, at least not in the way its other stars have been, likely due to the fact that his first season with the Mets in 2005 was forgettable.

However, even when Beltran's offense isn't at peak levels, he's still saving runs with his glove. According to The Fielding Bible, Beltran was fourth among all Major League center fielders in +/- between 2005-07 at +40 and behind only Andruw Jones, Nook Logan, and Curtis Granderson. Presumably, 10 runs is equivalent to a win so Beltran's defense alone was worth four wins to the Mets in those three seasons. It doesn't sound like much, but it really is amazing defense.

To get into even more Sabermetrics, Beltran has been worth 6.0, 12.4, 10.4, and 8.1 wins between 2005-08 according to WARP-3 (Wins Above Replacement Player over 162 games). That's a total of about 37 wins over four seasons, or an average of over 9 wins per season. Beltran will have been paid $52.5 million for those four seasons at the end of 2008, so that's an average of about $13 million per season and about $1.5 million per win.

Generally speaking, a replacement level free agent costs about $3.3 million for one win, so Beltran has given more than twice that value since joining the Mets. Beltran's contract, even though it's very hefty, is actually a value if you consider some of the other options -- mostly unattractive -- that have been out there in the last few seasons.

Beltran has been a victim of unreasonably high expectations and will probably end his tenure with the Mets as the era's ugly duckling. Overall, however, Beltran is just as valuable to the Mets as Jose Reyes and David Wright. Remember, the Mets' 2006 season -- one NLCS win away from the World Series -- doesn't happen without Beltran.

You can read more of Bill's work at both Baseball Digest Daily and his blog, Crashburn Alley.