What Happened to Aaron?

By Marc Palumbo
Posted Thursday, June 5, 2008

By: Marc Palumbo

He's been obliterated by the fans. He's been buried by the media. Based on WPA/LI he's been the third-worst reliever in the game this season. So how does this happen? How does the once-revered setup ace in 2005 and 2006 turn into the recipient of the most vociferous booing at Shea since Bobby Bonilla roamed the outfield?

I don't mind the booing, I don't mind the harassment, I don't even mind Joe Benigno-Gazingo calling for Heilman to be traded for a man named Shelley (hey, everyone's allowed to be migraine-inducingly wrong) . What I do mind is how nobody has even bothered to examine what – if anything – has happened to turn one of the premier setup men in the league into batting practice fodder.

For Mets fans everywhere "Heilman" will always be synonymous with "Molina." He's the reason why "The Catch" will always evoke bittersweet ruminations instead of twinkle-in-the-eye stories of the play that kept 2006 alive. But the fact remains that – aside from a couple of "are you kidding me" home runs allowed – he returned to form in 2007. Looking at Heilman’s numbers provides some insight into the discussion, but ultimately they present more questions than answers.

The most telling stat is the one you see over and over on SNY whenever Heilman comes into a game. Pitching with the bases empty Heilman holds opposing hitters to a .175/.268/.254 opposing three-slash. When runners are on base, however, those numbers increase dramatically to a mind-numbing .400/.500/.691. Yeah, that's right, when Aaron Heilman faces a batter with a man on base said batter instantly becomes Barry L. Bonds circa 2003.

Is it mental? Is it the booing? Is it Vinny from Staten Island railing on him from above the dugout? I don’t know – but I don’t think so. And while the booing has to hurt, looking at the numbers shows a mix of terrible luck and “anti-clutchicity” of historic proportions.

Heilman's BABIP with runners on base is an insane .468 and his BABIP overall for the season is .346. The last three years Heilman posted BABIPs of .263, .283, and .290. If history is any indicator his 2008 number should regress to the mean and opponents should stop putting up so many crooked numbers against him.

What’s puzzling is that even with such an elevated BABIP, Heilman’s line drive percentage is actually down from his career average (15.1% this year compared to 20.7% in 2007). A higher LD% would go a long way in explaining the elevated BABIP. AN elevated LD% could mean bad luck or even that Heilman is losing something off his pitches and/or getting the ball up more often. But, it appears as if he’s throwing the ball better than he has in the past. In addition to his lower LD% his K/9 ratio is higher than it’s ever been.

But, despite all of this, Heilman has posted a -1.45 WPA and by that number is the third worst reliever in baseball as of June 3rd. Thanks to FanGraphs.com and Tom Tango’s great work on the topic there is a stat labeled simply as “Clutch.” A player’s clutch number is, “A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment.” A zero would indicate a player fares no better or worse in high leverage situations, and you can take it from there.

Heilman’s clutch rating for 2008 is -2.27. To put that in perspective Kyle Farnsworth’s is 0.69 and Eric Gagne’s, he of the five blown saves this year, is 0.24.

What does it mean? Nobody can say for sure, but I think it’s safe to go out on a limb and say that Heilman still has nasty stuff and is still capable of being the dominant reliever that Mets fans expect him to be. Whether his failures in high pressure opportunities are a result of nerves, lack of confidence or just bad luck, one would imagine the numbers should regress to mean sometime in the near future and the Mets will once again have a reliable bridge from the first seven innings to Billy Wagner in the ninth.
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You can read more of Marc's poorly-worded and semi-relevant Mets commentary at http://ketchuponyouricecream.blogspot.com