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Wright Belongs

By Marc Palumbo
Posted Friday, April 25, 2008

David Wright is very, very good at what he does. Just a quick glance at the back of his card proves that. But do Met fans truly appreciate just how good he really is? At just 25, Wright is already one of the best hitters in the game – and the scary part is that he’s only getting better.

Last season, when the Mets were riding high in May, the comparisons and questions inevitably started popping up: Who would you rather have on your team, A-Rod or Wright? To any objective fan the obvious answer was, and still is, A-Rod. And while I agreed with the conclusion in general, I wondered if the thought of a team taking Wright over A-Rod be dismissed so summarily. I didn’t think so last season, and I certainly don’t think so now, but I was worried that my biases were getting in the way of an objective decision. We are, after all, talking about Alex Rodriguez.

The only way to compare the two without the discussion degenerating into a Mike & the Mad Dog-esque shouting match is to look at both players' first full three seasons in the major leagues – 2008 being David Wright’s fourth full season. Looking at the numbers from those years provides some interesting insight into the debate.

A-Rod’s first three full seasons came when he was 20-22 years old. During that three-year span he put up OPS+s of 160, 120, and 136 and his K/BB ratio was just about 2-¼:1. He hit 101 homeruns and drove in 331. His WARPs were 10.7, 6.0, and 8.3, respectively. For the non-statistically inclined it’s pretty simple: A-Rod was a fantastic baseball player then just as he is now.

From 2005-2007 at the ages of 22-24, Wright posted OPS+s of 139, 133, and 150 and his K/BB ratio was just about 1-½:1. He hit 83 homeruns and drove in 325. His WARPs were 8.8, 8.8, and 11.8.

A-Rod stole 90 bases, Wright stole 71. You can throw up any statistic you want – Wright is just about on par with A-Rod in every category.

Wright is usually dismissed from most of the A-Rod comparisons simply because he hasn’t produced at a high enough level for a long enough time – and rightfully so. But comparing the two across their first three seasons makes it clear that Wright has been as good a player as A-Rod was and according to WARP values, Wright has been worth more wins to his teams.

Another useful metric is RC/27. RC/27 (or RC/G) basically attempts to measure how many runs a lineup of nine of the same hitters would score per game. A-Rod posted RC/27’s of 10.1, 6.2, and 7.3 in his first three seasons. Compare Wright’s 7.3, 7.4, and 9.0. The similarities between the two across the board three seasons into their careers are eerie.

This isn’t to say Wright is better than A-Rod – because right now he’s not. A-Rod will – barring injuries – go down as the greatest hitter of this generation and arguably the greatest hitter of all
time. But for the exceedingly small sample size of their first three seasons David Wright has been everything Alex Rodriguez was – and it follows that Wright has a chance to be everything Rodriguez has been.

In now his fourth season, Wright is playing like a superstar and producing at an elite level. Seventeen games into the year Wright is hitting at a .359/.475/.734 clip. Yes, it’s early. Yes, a .734 SLG is practically unsustainable for anyone not named Bonds. But is there any reason to doubt that Wright can post .340/.420/.600?

His career three-slash is .313/.391/.539. Last season he posted a .546 SLG – the highest of his career – with a dismal April that saw him hit zero homeruns and only five extra-base hits. The potential is there for a mind-numbingly good season and he’s well on his way in 2008. A-Rod only got better following his first three seasons. Looking at the numbers, there’s no reason to think Wright can’t get even better as well.

Finally, the strongest indicators of his higher averages this season being fluky would be an inflated batting average on balls in play and perhaps an elevated line drive percentage. As for the BABIP, so far this season Wright is right in line with the past three years – indicating that he’s not receiving the benefit of some lucky bounces or bad fielding so far this season. His LD% is up a bit, but not enough to raise eyebrows.

Will Wright ever hit 57 homeruns? Probably not. But other than reaching such prodigious power numbers there’s no telling what he might accomplish. Yes, he’s that good – and the numbers back it up. And thanks to one of Omar Minaya’s few rational moves, Mets fans will be able to watch Wright get even better for many years to come.

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