2008 Mets Season Preview

By Mike McGann
Posted Monday, March 31, 2008

Two-thirds of an inning. Seven runs. With a first-inning collapse that sealed the deal on arguably the worst crash and burn in baseball history, Mets fans, players, management and even ownership found themselves wandering around the offseason like the victims of some terrible accident of fate, surrounded by the smoking wreckage of the 2007 season.

And even the first feeble moves of the offseason, trading Lastings Millege to the Nats for Brian Schneider and Ryan Church, left a lot of people scratching their heads. Combined with the not-overly-shocking departure of Tom Glavine, he of the afore-mentioned disasterous two-thirds of an inning, the offseason following the crash seemed to be a winter of discontent.

But then the Minnesota Twins played Santa Claus, outthinking themselves into blowing arguably superior offers from the Red Sox and Yankees for ace Johan Santana and instead taking a mediocre package of young players, Carlos Gomez, Kevin Mulvey, Deolis Guerra and Phillip Humber from the Mets for one of the best pitchers in baseball — a guy not yet 30 and left-handed, no less, everything seemed to change.

It was as if the clouds of doom and gloom vaporized and Johnny Nash’s “I Can See Clearly” reverberated from midtown to the Tappan-Zee.

Sure, it’s one guy. Just one of twenty-five. But Johan Santana is the kind of guy that changes everything. Now, Pedro Martinez goes from iffy as an ace coming back from injury to a formidable number two. And it puts Oliver Perez and John Maine, both 15-game winners in 2007, in the three and four holes. Consider the prospect of Maine as a number four starter for a second. There are teams he’d be the ace for — and a large number he’d be sitting as the number two. And aside from pushing back pitchers so they face weaker opposing starters, Santana means less wear and tear on the bullpen — which was the root cause of the collapse in the first place.

While many were quick to point Jose Reyes’ awful month of September, it wasn’t lack of offense that did the Mets in at the end of 2007. After September 15, the Mets scored an average of 6.2 runs per game, after averaging 4.8 runs per game during the rest of the season. The problem is that the pitchers allowed 6.76 runs per game, clear evidence that the both the starting staff and bullpen wore down — and frankly, weren’t well-managed.

For the second straight year, John Maine ran out of gas, his excellent start on the second to last day of the season notwithstanding. Maine hit a wall at about 150 innings, although he fought through an entire season with a hip injury. Glavine faded horribly down the stretch and Orlando Hernandez spent most of the latter half of the season injured. And yes, even Oliver Perez had a so-so September.

And when the starters went down, a shaky bullpen imploded from overuse. And that, as they say, is that.

By effectively adding Santana and Martinez (limited to just five starts in 2007) the Mets have dramatically bolstered their starting staff, which in turn should help reinforce a still-iffy bullpen. The back of the rotation, which seems likely to be shared by the once again injured and ancient Hernandez and the wildly inconsistent and young Mike Pelfrey (with Pelfrey yo-yoing between New York and New Orleans) is a big question mark and the Mets may ultimately look elsewhere to fill the slot.

Closer Billy Wagner is past his prime and increasingly injury prone, but still remains among the top rank of closers in the NL. Aaron Heilman is one of the most consistent set-up guys in the game (although one who still wants to be and should be a starting pitcher), which is probably more than any other NL East team can say about their bullpens.

After that, the Mets face deep and serious questions. Duaner Sanchez seems likely to start the season on the disabled list and even if healthy, many question whether he’ll ever return to his pre-injury 2006 form when he appeared to be a closer-in-waiting as one of baseball’s most dominating set-up guys. Pedro Feliciano appears ready to step up beyond his previous role as lefty specialist to take on some of the set-up role. Jorge Sosa basically adds depth and figures again to be an average pen arm. Scott Schoeneweis was a massive disappointment as a set-up guy, and appears to be little more than a mediocre situational lefty — and the team desperately tried to deal him and his silly contract during the offseason and failed.

Matt Wise was a solid reliever for the Brewers until he hit Reds infielder Pedro Lopez in the face with a pitch mid-season in 2007. Unsettled by the event, Wise became little more than a punching bag the rest of the season. Wise literally could be anything from the second set-up guys desperately needed to a total washout. Young Joe Smith, rushed to big leagues last year, is equally as big a question mark. If Smith is used properly as a righty specialist, he can be a weapon — but his splits show the futility of exposing him at length to lefty hitting.

If the starting lineup has fewer questions — and still seems likely to score runs in bunches — no one is confusing the Flushing offense for that of the Tigers.

Carlos Delgado fought through hand injuries — and was recovering from surgery to correct those issues for most of the season. The slugging first baseman’s bat looked slow through most of the season and he failed to adapt to his diminished skills. Increasingly, it appears that Delgado can’t hit lefties and without any protection in the Mets’ six hole (at least until the return of Moises Alou in May) opposing pitchers may well have their way with the veteran.

Luis Castillo will do a couple of things: he’ll hit about 300, he’ll make contact and add a nice spark from the two hole, albeit having no power whatsoever. He’s not a Gold Glove second baseman anymore, but assuming the knee injuries that limited his range in 2007 are improved, he’s decent. Maybe just as importantly, he knows how to win. Castillo gives the Mets arguably their best player at this position since Edgardo Alfonzo.

Jose Reyes had an awful month of September. Whether he was sulking because of issues with manager Willie Randolph or not, he had the worst month of his career, turning what appeared to be an amazing season in a merely decent one. Still, Reyes isn’t even 25 yet, so it’s likely that we haven’t seen his best seasons yet.

If there was ever a doubt of who the best player on the Mets is, September 2007 showed it in spades. When the rest of the team lapsed into a coma, David Wright tried to put the entire team (other than Carlos Beltran) on his shoulders and drag it kicking and screaming into the postseason. Although he could not overcome the failings of the rest of the roster and the manager, Wright put up MVP numbers and likely would have been the MVP had the Mets made the postseason. Still, just 24, Wright not only is one of the best players in baseball, he is quickly becoming the leader of this team. It seems like only a matter of time before he is named captain. Put simply, David Wright is the best Met player to put on a uniform since the prime of Tom Seaver.

Rightfielder Ryan Church might be an upgrade over the now retired Shawn Green. And while he has a rep for a super throwing arm, he hasn’t shown it yet. And the jury is out whether he can hit lefties on a regular basis. But he should hit a ton of doubles into the gap, as he did in 2007 and should be better than average for a number seven hitter.

Carlos Beltran was bitten again by injuries in the middle of 2007. After a hot start, he was hobbled and slumped badly. When he was finally healthy, he and Wright combined as a two-man wrecking crew powering the Mets’ offense during the final two months of the season. As long as he can stay healthy, he seems likely to put a .290, 30-plus HR, 100 RBI season on the table for 2008, which puts him in the upper echelon of Major league outfielders.

Moises Alou still can hit. When he can stay in the lineup. And that’s the issue. Alou missed most of the first half in 2007 and then raked at a .341 rate the rest of the season, adding 13 HR and 49 RBi in little more than half a season. And he’s going to miss at least the first month of this season leaving the left field job to former Mets’ farm hand Angel Pagan and was passable as a backup for the Cubs in 2007, but by no means a starter. Until Alou is healthy, the offense may struggle a bit.

Brian Schneider is a great defensive catcher. He’s not much of a hitter, although 2007 was an unusually weak year for him. He’ll share some time with the slugging Ramon Castro (Castro will start the season the DL with a hamstring issue) and the combo should be decent, if not an offensive powerhouse. Met fans may be used to having a catcher with a stick, but Schneider’s ability to catch, throw and call games probably makes him a better fit for this team.

The bench won’t be anything to write home about with Pagan, Endy Chavez, Marlon Anderson, Damion Easley and Castro. Fernando Tatis, who apparently sold his soul to the devil, may make the team as the twenty-fifth man while Alou is hurt but he doesn’t figure to be much of an upgrade over Ruben Gotay, released and since signed with the Braves. It’s not awful, but nothing special as benches go.

Outlook: if the Phillies and Braves weren’t such deeply flawed teams, the Mets would probably be little more than a Wild Card contender. Both Philly and Atlanta have major pitching problems and are depending on the likes of Tom Glavine and Jaime Moyer for big innings a couple of years after the twilight of their careers. And both teams have piles of steaming wreckage disguised as bullpens.

Sure, the Phillies look to have the best offense of the three, caused in part, because they play in Coors Field-East, Citizens Bank Park — but those who live by the short porch often die by it, and the Phillies managed to enter this season with even less pitching — and are depending on the injured and shell shocked Brad Lidge to be their closer.

If anything, the Braves look to be even weaker than the Phillies, with less offense (and key pieces such as Chipper Jones in decline) and a pitching staff that is either old, or injured, untalented, or all of the above. Atlanta is barely a .500 team and probably won’t contend for the postseason.

Which leaves the Mets. A flawed team with question marks, to be sure. And there’s no doubt that this group needs to get out of the gate quickly to keep manager Willie Randolph’s job safe. But it’s hard to imagine any other NL East team winning more than 90 games, and then only the Phillies. And from here it seems unlikely that the Mets will win less than 92, even if Delgado gets older and slower and Alou stays the course on the DL. The Mets starting pitching is just too good and Wright, Reyes and Beltran are just too potent as offensive players to keep this team from scoring more than enough runs to make the pitching staff even more dominant.

2008 prediction: Mets, 92-70, first place, NL East.

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