Danny Being Danny In Left

By Kevin McCarthy
Posted Wednesday, February 25, 2009

"I don't want him to get into a strictly platoon situation," Manuel said. "I think he's a little better player than that.” That “him” is Daniel Murphy, the soon to be 24-year-old who has amassed all of 131 at bats last season. Obviously, Murphy impressed Manuel so much that even in limited action, Fernando Tatis will shift to the bench so Murphy can get the most playing time. So what should we expect?

First off, let’s not make comparisons to Manny Ramirez. It isn’t fair to the guy. It’s not his fault the Mets balked at signing him.

Since I finally got my The Bill James Handbook and 2009 Baseball Prospectus, I’ll take a look here to see what they think about Danny being Danny. I didn’t include his AAA numbers since he only played one game with New Orleans.

The Bill James projection seems Murphy-friendly. While it shows him not as a big home run hitter, he hits for average and gets on base often. His slugging is about on par with Jose Reyes, so he is projected to be a good doubles hitter.

The Baseball Prospectus projection might anger or disappoint some of you. However, consider this: they give him a breakout rate of 32%, an improve rate of 59%, a collapse rate of 11%, and finally an attrition rate of just 6%.

First let’s discuss his improve rate. The 59% tells us that Murphy is highly likely to do much better than that projected line. In fact, he will come closer to his 2008 line than the projection because BP has given him a rate that shows he is very likely to do better than the PECOTA projection. In other words, BP believes his 2008 year was no fluke.

Next, let’s take a look at his breakout rate of 32%. This measures the likelihood that his baseline performance will improve by at least 20%. “High breakout rates are indicative of upside potential.” 32% is a pretty good number to get. Here are the Mets who have similar rates: Marlon Anderson (34% - he couldn’t get much worse, could he?), Nick Evans (34% - didn’t appear to be as good as Murphy), and Jose Reyes (40% - they love his 2009 season, big things coming). Anderson can be thrown out the window, Evans will start in AAA, and Reyes, well, Reyes has unlimited upside.

His collapse rate of 11% indicates the likelihood that he will be worse than that projected line. In other words, don’t bank on it. The attrition rate (6%) really has to do with playing time. They thought he will get the majority of the playing time, and judging by the above quote, it looks that way. Meanwhile, Tatis’ attrition rate is 50%, showing he could be glued to the bench.

Moving on from the projections, Murphy’s strike out totals from last year worry some people. I can’t seem to find the article I want to link to, but I remember reading that it is a cause for concern. In 131 at bats, he struck out 21.4% of the time, which is slightly higher than David Wright’s averages. However, his minor league numbers show this to possibly be an anomaly. Against the weaker competition, his strike out percentage was 12.9% in AA, a far cry from 21.4%. Both James and BP project his strikeout rates to drop from that total, to 14.7% and 15.1%, respectively. Regardless of your stance on how negative strike outs are, it’s not like he is the next Ryan Howard or Adam Dunn. Howard had a K percentage of 32.6% and Dunn was at 31.7%.

Can he handle lefties? Well he did hit .400 against them in the major leagues…in 10 at bats. Discount that number right away, it means nothing. I am having trouble finding his minor league splits online, and for some reason milb.com took them down since he is no longer a minor leaguer. However, I remember seeing that (as one would expect) his numbers against righties were better than lefties. It will be important to pay attention to this in Spring Training. One thing that does work in his favor is how he works pitchers. He saw 4.25 pitches per plate appearance last year, which would have ranked third in the NL had he qualified. This indicates he is a patient and selective hitter and let’s face it – the names at the top of this list are a lot more attractive than the ones at the bottom.

Finally, will his outfield defense be a concern? Murphy said he had been working on his outfield defense all winter with his younger brother. Bart Hubbuch wrote, “Defense was an offseason priority for Murphy, who worked on it daily with his brother (like him, an outfielder) on the fields at Murphy's alma mater, Jacksonville University. ‘Every day, it gets a little more comfortable,’ he said of his defense.” It will definitely help that Carlos Beltran is the best centerfielder in the game, which will allow him to take control of the balls in the gaps in addition to properly positioning him before plays.

Overall, I would gladly take the line Bill James has projected for Murphy. It is a fair and respectable line, and I think it will be easily attainable for Murphy, a tireless worker. Baseball Prospectus loves his chances of breaking out, and Mets fans should be excited to see this young man play on an everyday basis.

Kevin McCarthy runs Metsopolis.com