Hope For The Best, Plan For the Worst

By Matt "The Stat" Himelfarb
Posted Wednesday, January 16, 2008

So it is one of those lazy, but typical Sunday mornings at home, where I am having violent brain convulsions searching for answers to abstract topics such as the Mets' starting rotation next year and how to possibly write a poem about fluorine. Out of the blue comes “The Bourne Ultimatum,” bearing an answer to the former.

“Hope for the best, plan for the worst.”

Ah. Side of “You can be anything you want to be when you grow up here in America,"I do not think there is a more apropos phrase when it comes to helping someone lead his or her life. It is almost like a seismic shift (or balance, if you prefer) between Barack Obama’s message and that of Hillary Clinton during this campaign season.

I, myself, still hope that the Twins will be inspired by Jacob Jackson’s writing on The Hardball Times a few months back and settle for a similar package of Carlos Gomez, Philip Humber, and Ruben Gotay for Johan Santana, but I know the realism in the that possibility is as asinine as the logic of sending Gomez and Humber, along with Kevin Mulvey, Deolis Guerra and Fernando Martinez in return for Johan.

Which is why, in a world after Johan, we have to start planning for the worst; that involves taking a hard look at the young arms the Mets already have.

A Parallel Universe

Mike Pelfrey appears to be the most flexible option the Mets have at this point; in a rotation that could very well have two holes to be filled should Orlando Hernandez move into a spot starter/long reliever role, Pelfrey could be used to fill one of the two spots, be used out of the bullpen, or be sent back to AAA.

That decision is very similar to what the Seattle Mariners have when it comes to one of their young starters, Brandon Morrow. Morrow, like Pelfrey, was a first-round draft pick that was rushed into a starting role even quicker than Pelfrey. Morrow floundered in his role before moving permanently into the bullpen, where he became the main guy when it came to a much needed strikeout.

When an AL West rival scout was asked whether Morrow should start, he replied, “If they think he can start, yeah, it’s absurd to be honest. I really respect Bill and that ball club and he (Morrow) will help them from the bullpen, but it’s at the cost of Morrow’s future as a part of their rotation.”

While Morrow appears to have a better grip on his fastball command than Pelfrey, the point is very much the same between both of them: far too many clubs try to implement the Minnesota Twins' policy of letting pitching prospects throw out of the bullpen before transferring them to the big league rotation, when in many cases, pitchers have little to gain development-wise when they are placed in a relief role.

From what I saw of Pelfrey last year, he appears to have the best command of both his four seamer as well as his sinker, when the former is in the 93-94 mph range (as opposed to 97-98) and his latter is in the 90-91 range (as opposed to 93-94), whereas both pitchers tend to elevate. That is why many, including my colleague Joe Janish, believe Pelfrey is best suited for the bullpen, since sinkerballers tend to pitch best when they are tired, since it helps provide more sink, and, in Pelfrey’s case, less velocity which leads to improved command.

So why do I disagree with putting Pelfrey in the bullpen in 2008? At best, Pelfrey could see some improvement in his fastball command while being relegated to the role of a ground-ball-inducing reliever, but what about the other qualities needed to start? Pelfrey still needs to hone his slider, which has been occasionally dominant and mostly inconsistent. He will need to work even harder on changing speeds, since if he is going to keep his four seamer and sinker in the low 90s permanently, then his changeup, which when he did use it last year, was in the low to mid 80s, will need to have about an 8-10 mph difference from his fastball velocity. These are the things that must be taken into account before making Pelfrey the Aaron Heilman of tomorrow.

The Shark

After many publications ranked Humber as the number prospect in the organization, I myself began to harbor doubts about the Mets handling of the Pelfrey situation, when Humber appeared to have everything that Pelfrey lacked, particularly his 12-6 curveball as his secondary offering.

While Humber’s curveball stayed intact, he failed to seize his chance, posting eras of 4.76 and 4.26, respectively, in May and June, in which he went through a “dead arm” period, where he rarely even cracked 90 mph. Despite some emotional breakdowns as well in between, Humber was called up in September where he pitched a brief seven innings, posting a 7.71 era.

Overall, Humber appeared to have a solid year, as his 20.5% strikeout rate ranked fourth in the PCL, but a closer look at his numbers reveals just how far his ceiling has fallen. For one, he was 24 for all of 2007, which, while certainly not old for the PCL, is not exactly young either. Second, while many of the parks Humber pitched in were bandboxes, the New Orleans Zephyrs' stadium had one of the lowest park factors in the league, and his HR/9 numbers were equally appalling at both home and on the road.

So what to do with Humber? We are going to stick with our assumption back in October, that Humber is actually best suited for the pen, where his fastball velocity will likely increase and he can mend his curveball.

The Rest

Kevin Mulvey appears to be the most promising arm at the AAA level right now, and if not for Pelfrey and Humber, his maturity would allow him to compete for a spot this spring. As we wrote in our annual prospect rankings at the end of the year, Mulvey “draws comparisons to Fausto Carmona for the nice sink on his low 90s FB” but his “secondary stuff might keep him from dominating in the big leagues."

Adam Bostick, who was acquired along with Jason Vargas in a trade last winter for Matthew Lindstrom and Henry Owens, is a lanky, athletic left hander who disappointed many after going 6-7 with an era of 5.66. On the positive end, he showed some potential, posting a 21.1% strikeout rate while sporting a low 90s fastball and plus curveball.

Vargas, who was once a young starter on the rise after being drafted in the second round in 2004 out of Long Beach State and going 5-5 with a 4.03 era in 2005 with the Marlins, was lit up like a Christmas tree in 10 innings last year for the Mets. His stuff is largely mediocre and he does not seem to be much more than a AAA player.

The Met pitching troubles are mostly exaggerated by the New York media, and with the right moves, that could all change. First, the Mets should place Pelfrey in AAA and let him develop, no matter how dead set they are on seeing him on the big league roster in 2008. Second, they should let Philip Humber settle into a set-up role for the short term. Finally, with Aaron Heilman filling one of the two holes in the rotation, I have become far more open to seeing the Mets sign someone such as Bartolo Colon to an incentive laden deal, or signing Livan Hernandez.

Until than, all we can do is hope for the best, and plan for the worst.

You can contact Matt at: matthimelfarb@gmail.com