Mack’s Top Mets Prospect List – July 2007

By John Mackin Ade
Posted Friday, June 29, 2007

As most of you know, my list does not include anyone who is currently playing for the parent club (thus, no Carlos Gomez, Ruben Gotay, or Julio Franco (sic)).

In addition, the premise is which player is currently showing the ability to not only make it to the major leagues, but star in it also.

I also do not list any of the VSL or DSL players. I used to, but now that I am a beat reporter and see first hand how raw these kids are, it would unfair to either list or omit them. They aren’t professional baseball players yet in my book.

Also, my list is based only on my opinion following this team since 1962.

Lastly, the length of my list has varies in the past; however, I now try and make a list based on thinking that I am a General Manager of a major league baseball team and I’m trying to evaluate the Mets minor league players I want in my system. Presently, in my opinion, there are only 10 players that quality for that list.
So here goes:

1. OF Fernando Martinez - F-Mart is easily the one guy every team wishes they had signed. His lack of age and experience alone (being the 4th top batter on an AA team), is enough to rank him in the top 5. I see no holes here. A broken hand doesn’t change this at all.

2. OF Lastings Milledge - some of you might find it strange that I rank Milledge this high. Talent and ability wise, he far surpasses anyone the parent club has on the roster right now, minus Carlos Beltran, and he’s probably right up there with Martinez, but I do not see him ever being a star with the Mets. I think the kid has worn out his welcome, though I chalk up all his problems to youth and immaturity. The Mets are shopping him as we speak, and though his value has lost some of the luster since the rap album, he still is the team’s number one trade bait.

3. SP Deolis Guerra - You have to respect a 0.97 WHIP from an 18 year old pitching A+ ball. Another of those prospects that every team wants to be packaged for a trade, but I think the Mets will keep this kid. Much more potential for stardom than either Humber or Pelfrey.

4. SP Phillip Humber - Humber has pitched very well the last 5-6 games and, if he keeps this up throughout the 2007 season at AAA, he will have earned himself a roster spot in 2008. I rank Humber slightly ahead of Mike Pelfrey, based solely on the fact that Pelfrey didn’t fair well the first time around the block.

5. C Francisco Pena - I’ve watched this kid play all season and I can’t believe he’s not turning 18 until October and is hitting .250 in A ball. 17 years old! And guess what? His bat speed is increasing as I write this. This is a major league prospect in the making.

6. SP Mike Pelfrey - It’s not that I have this guy ranked so low, it’s just that I see 5 other Mets minor leaguers with the talent to do better with their careers. Pelfrey will get another chance, though I don’t think it will be this year. I also think he is the number one pitching trade bait right now, and could be gone come all-star break.

7. 2B Hector Pellot - Pellot fell off the radar last year after a miserable season in Hagerstown, but this seems to be the price young Latin talent pays when they are shipped stateside at a tender young age. He has very quietly improved his fielding and is hitting in the .260 range for his second year at the same level. Look for other Latin players (Gregory Veloz and Juan Legares) to repeat ‘A’ ball next year in this 2-year plan for prospects.

8. SP Kevin Mulvey - I guess I was expecting more from this guy this year. I know I was expecting more K/IP. In my opinion, this is the 8th top Mets prospect, though I don’t think he will turn out to be a productive pitcher in the majors.

9. 1B Mike Carp - Carp has shown consistent power throughout his minor league career, but so did Mike Jacobs, Craig Brazell, and Brent Harper. In my book, his only chance to make it as a starter (and remember, there are no 2nd string 1Bman in the league that can’t play another position) would be a potential DH on an AL team. Frankly, more trade bait

10. SP Jon Niese - High ERA and WHIP at A+. I need to see more from him, especially at the next level. Looks like he will remain in St. Lucie for the season (why rush him?) and we’ll have a better opportunity to evaluate him next year, but I have to put him on the opponent GM want list, especially if it’s a small market team.

Okay… now it gets dicey. First of all, I list no one currently on the GCL Mets, Kingsport, or Brooklyn staff. Things are just a little too early in their season to figure out these guys and some of them will most probably make the August 1st update.
The rest are guys that are far from currently being considered “prospects”, but have shown the talent and ability to make the next team affiliate jump and someday become a major league baseball player.

11. SP Jason Vargas - Boy I thought this trade was a good one at the time… Two 23 year old pitchers (+ Adam Bostick) for a 27 and 26 year reliever the team didn’t need. Now, the guys the Mets got rid of are helping the Marlins and Bostick and Vargas are wallowing at AAA. I don’t even list Bostick with a shot, but Vargas has shown glimpses of having the talent to return to the majors. No way he makes the Mets rotation, but a possible long man in the making.

12. RP Ambiorix Burgos - I’m not sure this guy still classifies as a prospect. He pitched well for the Mets this year, only to find himself sent back to AAA. This from a team that needs relief pitchers who pitch well. I have a funny feeling he’ll be around for awhile.

13. SP/RP Jacob Ruckle - I love Jacob Ruckle as a starter and I’m thrilled he’s back in that position, but his future as a Met may still be a one inning specialist, confusing everybody with his “Ruckle Shuffle”. This is a very talented young man. Remember his name.

14. OF Corey Coles - is one of those professional minor league hitting machines that don’t have the tools to get past the likes of Milledge, Gomez, and/or Martinez. The Mets need to teach him how to play 1B, and maybe a couple of other positions, so he can become a long time utility player.

15. OF Caleb Stewart – go to #14… replace Coles name with Stewart.

16. RP Emary Frederick - remember Henry Owens’ K/IP ratio? What about Joe Smith’s ? Well, try Frederick’s on a team that couldn’t beat a rug: 44Ks in 36.1 IP. And, it’s his first year in organized ball. Remember the name.

17. SP Matt Durkin - no one wrote this guy off quicker than I did a couple of years ago, but I’ve sat behind home plate next to the speed gun every game he’s pitched this year, and though his fastball only hits around 90 now, he has developed a tremendous 70 MPH curve and has completely healed from 1.5 years of rehab. His future may be in the Rule 5 draft, but you’ll hear from this guy some day.

18. SP Bobby Parnell - speaking of comebacks, how do you like what Bobby “Friggin” Parnell is doing this year. Like Durkin, his future is probably with the Rule 5 draft, but it’s great to see him healed and pitching well.

19. RP Nick Abel - currently’ Abel is putting up the best relief numbers in the Mets minor league system. That earns him a place on my list anytime.

20. SP Tobi Stoner - Tobi’s getting his arse handed to him at St. Lucie, but this kid has the talent and ability to be an SP4 or 5 in the majors. We’ll give him all the time he needs.

21. SS Juan Legarus - Legarus is having one of those first year Hector Pellot seasons, but Mets scouts continue to compare him the Jose Reyes. No, I didn’t say Jorge Reyes.

22. SP Marcos Carvajal - isn’t that a great name? Carvajal has showed some signs of big talent this year and he’s still very young. Another one of those guys Omar finds that we have to keep an eye on.

23. C Drew Butera - Butera came to the Mets with lots of hype which just hasn’t happened yet, but his recent promotion to AA will be the answer to the question ‘is there life after Jesus Flores’. I believe there is, but his last name is Pena.

24. OF Dustin Martin - I had really hoped Martin would have been slowed down this year and played ‘A’ ball in Savannah. His Mets minor league career so far, both in last year’s season and winter ball, has resulted in excellent numbers, but there really is no place for him to go in the next 4 years, what with Gomez, Milledge, and Martinez far ahead of him on the charts. Savannah sure could have used his bat, though it has cooled down a little so far this season. Anther candidate to be taught 1B so he can someday become a Mets utility player.

25. SP Eric Brown - I keep going up and down on this guy, strangely similar to his performance game to game. At times, he looks unbeatable, while the next game he resembles Jose Lima. Still young enough to change his bad habits, but he’s fallen way down on my hit list.