Mailbag: Matt 'The Stat" Answers Your Questions

By Matt "The Stat" Himelfarb
Posted Monday, June 11, 2007

Editor's Note: the rankings mentioned in here can be found here.

Any particular reason why Caleb Stewart made no appearance on your top 15? The guy has been red hot.

Well, let me start off by saying Caleb Stewart needed to get hot at one point. At 25 in AA, anything less than dominant in an organization with Lastings Milledge and Carlos Gomez should have him released. With that being said, I think Stewart's a very expendable part, and mind you, it would've made complete sense why they should've traded this guy while he was hot. Unfortunately, baseball doesn't work that way, and since I honestly wish the best for Stewart, he's likely going to be buried in AAA for the next three years.

Matt, I'm shocked that you have Humber above Gomez. What do you think Gomez and Fernando's ceilings are?
 

Nice to see a Braves fan following some of the Mets young guys. I wrestled with that one as well. The thing is with Gomez, while I understand that he was young for his level both this year and last year, last year he'd really bad plate discipline, which included a complete inability to hit the breaking ball when I saw him. However, he's, of course, improved his plate discipline immensely, but I'd like to see more.

Obviously, in terms of ceiling, it's very high. He's 6"4 and has yet to nearly fill out. If everything pans out, he should be a star. But again, there' a lot of risk involved.

F-Mart is a future superstar. The GB% doesn't exactly scare me because he's exorbitantly young for his level, and he could crush the ball last year, so the power should come at one point.

Mike Carp is a gap to gap hitter who has a very good approach to the plate. I'm not quite sure how you put him 3 slots behind Evans, when Carp is a level ahead and a half year younger. Overall, though, that is a great top 10. Bobby Parnell was a deep deep sleeper who David (my pal on my blog) loved last year.

Thanks for the kind words. I honestly admit that I didn't exactly think Evans would break out this year. He always had the power and the ability to hit to all fields, which are certainly good qualities in a young player, but he just never showed the plate discipline. Obviously that's changed, at that was the key difference between ranking him above Carp.

I think when I do pre-season rankings next year, having seen Carlos Gomez and Evans make such strides with their plate discipline last year that I'll have to take into consideration that while plate discipline is very much an unteachable skill, correlation with age and level is very important.

You seemed to be very high on Matt Durkin a few months back. Do you still feel that way, or is he just too old for his league right now?

Pretty much everybody is writing the guy off right now, including many scouts, and I don't blame them. Let's just remember that's a testament to the way the organization is structured, and not necessarily Durkin himself. If the Mets are really low enough on him to let him pitch in A ball at 24 than they should just release him. Supposedly his arm feels great, so I just don't get why they don't promote this guy. Now, I'm not saying he's higher than guys like Tobi Stoner and Robert Parnell who were recently promoted, but what the Mets should do at this point is let him go to AA, and find out if he can handle it. If he does or he doesn't, we will finally know and just let this kid move on with his career. He's a the definition of high-risk, high reward.

Kind of pointless, but how'd you rank Mike Pelfrey and Lastings Milledge if they were eligible, and any of the guys the Mets drafted this past week.

Yeah, the theoretical stuff can be pretty pointless, but we do a lot of other pointless things as well, so I don't mind.

On a more serious note, let me get of the way that I'll be the first to say that on the surface, I don't particularly like the Mets drafting, especially all the relievers so early on, but since anyone who tries to judge the draft is pretty much taking BA's scouting reports religiously, I'll wait and see what happens. With that being said, I don't think anyone stands much of a chance making an appearance on my list, (maybe Matt Harvey would've sneaked in there- sorry, I couldn't hold back) Vineyard or Kunz might have a shot by the end of the year for sure, but lets wait and see.

To be honest, Lastings Milledge would've been number one. Let's face it, the guy, in a way, is very proven, given his .381 OBP. last year in AAA. I'd also confidentially say he'd be in the top 30 if I were to do a prospect list from all around baseball today.

Mike Pelfrey is a whole 'nother story. I guess it'd only be fair that he be number four, given the fact pretty much everyone above him is in A-Ball. That could change fast though.

Who'd you say is the most overrated and underrated player in the Mets system right now?

I have to admit, I was hoping someone would send me this question, and thank you for doing so Mike. I could make an argument for Caleb Stewart, but that perception could change since he's so hot right now. I'll make it short and sweet: Kevin Mulvey for overrated, followed by Corey Ragsdale at a close second. In terms of underrated, I guess you'd have to go with Parnell.