Mets’ 2005 preview

By Mike McGann
Posted Monday, April 4, 2005

“Pitching and defense.” Repeat the mantra.

Teams playing at Shea Stadium featuring these two strengths are usually at least competitive. Mets’ teams that have pitched, caught the ball and hit a bit, rare as that combination has been, have generally been winners. For 2005 to be markedly different than the last four seasons, pitching and defense must come to the fore this year in Flushing, putting to rest memories of the Keystone-Kops-like defense of the last four seasons.
On paper, the 2005 Mets would seem to be the first version since the 2000 World Series team to combine at least some of all three — certainly more so than the last four editions of a team that cost two managers, Bobby Valentine and Art Howe, their jobs. New Mets’ General Manager Omar Minaya gutted the roster, bringing in star free agents such as pitcher Pedro Martinez and centerfielder Carlos Beltran, while shoring up the defense with 1B Doug Mientkiewicz for new manager Willie Randolph.

But is that enough to promise not just “meaningful games” but games in September and October that will keep fans at the edge of their seats?

Well, the simple answer is: “maybe.”

If Pedro Martinez pitches more like 1999 and less like he did down the stretch against the Yankees. If Kris Benson finally fulfills his promise to be a front of the rotation starter. If future Hall-of-Famer Tom Glavine proves he still has enough left in the tank to make 35 starts — and if the talented but erratic Victor Zambrano and Kaz Ishii can find the plate, the Mets have the potential for the best rotation in the National League — that even with inning-eating Steve Trachsel on the shelf for most if not all of the season with a back injury.

If Jose Reyes can stay healthy, after missing more than half of last season. If Cliff Floyd can stay healthy. If Mike Piazza hasn’t lost too much bat speed. If Kaz Matsui’s move to second doesn’t impact his offense — the Mets figure to score more runs that last year. But the questions outnumber the sure things, namely Beltran and super sophomore 3B David Wright, in the the lineup, so while it will probably be an improved offense, and don’t underestimate Mientkiewicz’ value as a contact hitter in a free-swinging lineup. Because of the uncertain status of so many players, the offense could be anywhere from so-so to electric, but likely to fall somewhere in between.

And then there’s the bullpen. Besides closer Braden Looper, who was solid last year, converting 29 out of 34 save opportunities. After that, well, start looking for the event horizon, because it’s a bit of a black hole, one that could tell the story of the 2005 season.
One question after another.

Infield: Mienkiewicz should help to firm up an improved defense, with Kaz Matsui switching to second and Reyes returning to his natural position at short. With Wright at third, this could become one of the better defensive infields in the league — no small thing with a number of non-strikeout pitchers on the staff. Offensively, Reyes and Matsui should get enough in front of Beltran to make things happen, while Wright may be the most dangerous no. 8 hitter in memory. Mike Piazza, the best hitter in team history, returns full-time to catch after the failed first base experiment of 2004, which could either spark new life in his declining bat, or lead to another injury-limited season for the 36-year-old. If they can stay healthy, a big question after Reyes’ hamstring issues of last year, Matsui’s back issues both last and this year and Piazza’s age and injury history this should be a strong and productive group — the best infield the team has put on the field since 2000. If injuries are epidemic, a deep bench will help some, but probably not enough to keep the team in playoff contention.

Outfield: If healthy, the combination of Carlos Beltran in center, Mike Cameron in right and Cliff Floyd in left should be among the better outfields in team history. But it’s a big if. Floyd might as well be listed in the dictionary next to chronic injury — and at this writing Mike Cameron’s recovery from wrist surgery, seemed to hit a big speed bump — and it remains up in the air whether he’ll be ready to go for opening day. Defensively, this trio will be above average, with Cameron a former Gold-Glove CF, and Beltran well above average defensively. Floyd probably isn’t as bad as some claim, but his range is not what it was — which will be okay if Beltran and Cameron are able to cover 3/4 of the outfield. Offensively, if these three are able to play the majority of the time, 100 HR shouldn’t be out of the question, with 250 RBI, potentially the best offensive outfield in team history.

Starting pitching: On paper, it looks to be upgraded. Subtract Al Leiter and replace him with Pedro Martinez and you’re already better. With Tom Glavine and Kris Benson in the next two slots, the Mets may have their best top three since 2000. Righty Victor Zambrano throws filthy stuff — but has trouble keeping in the strike zone. Much is the same problem with lefty Kaz Ishii — either or both have an equal chance in any outing of being dominating or frustrating. Still, if healthy, even after the loss of Steve Trachsel for most if not all of the season, it looks to be one of the deeper and more talented rotations in the league.

Relief pitching: Okay, you have Looper. Then there’s Mike DeJean, if he’s healthy to start the season, after tweaking his calf, he should be an okay set up guy. But who does what and when the rest of the time is, well, a bit dim. Lefties Mike Mathews and Dae-Sung Koo appear to be locks, while Felix Heredia (acquired for Mike Stanton from the Yankees) could be voted off the island, despite the cost of eating his contract. After Matt Ginter was dealt to the Tigers, Manny Aybar seems a lock to be the long-man/give Pedro extra rest 6th starter. The somewhat ancient Roberto Hernandez seems to have regained his fastball and nudged out both Heath Bell and hard-throwing Bartolome Fortunato (who may be DL bound) to complete the pen. Although the final pen make up depends on who actually gets people out — assume Bell and maybe Blake McGinley get the call from Norfolk to augment this group of seven relievers, admittedly, a big cut down from the seemingly 312 relief pitchers the Mets went to camp with.

As worrisome as this pen is, such is the nature of baseball in 2005. Only a handful of teams feel good about their pens going into this year, and lot depends on how the pieces fit together, how the manager handles the pens — and maybe most importantly, the amount of innings the starters are able to eat up. By season’s end, people could be raving about the Mets’ pen — or laying the blame for disaster at its feet.

Bench: This may be the biggest single change from last season, with a very deep and flexible bench. Chris Woodward plays almost a Joe McEwing-like number of positions, Marlon Anderson swings between the infield and outfield with nearly as much flexibility, and Miguel Cairo provides insurance against a serious Reyes or Matsui injury. Lefty 1B-OF Eric Valent looks to be the lone returning bench guy from 2004. Light-hitting Ramon Castro is the back up catcher for now, although MLB vet Mike DiFelice will be ready at Norfolk should his weak bat frustrate Randolph. IB-OF Luis Garcia, a AAA slugger, may stick if Randolph keeps only six relievers.

Manager: Randolph remains something of an unknown quantity, having never managed at any level before 2005. Still, he’s run a tight camp, instituting clear rules of conduct — even banning most facial hair — and he seems to embrace an aggressive style of play, much like his old manager Billy Martin. Frankly, it will be hard for Randolph to handle the bullpen worse than his predecessor, Art Howe, and the former Yankee captain seems to have enough intensity to keep this team’s attention. Only time will tell what his learning curve turns out to be.

Outlook: There’s no doubt this is a better team. How much better, though, and a shot at the playoffs depends on a ton of maybes and ifs. The good news: questions abound in the National League East, and for that matter in the National League in general. There are at least eight to ten teams, if things go right, that could be in the hunt, and the Mets are certainly among them. Plus, ownership is committed to adding salary if the team is in contention before the trade deadline, something that could bring chills to fans of players in the team’s minor league system.

The Best Guess: 86 wins, just short of the NL wildcard, 2nd place NL East.

Key Departures: C Jason Phillips, C Vance Wilson, P Al Leiter, P John Franco, INF Joe McEwing, IB Todd Zeile, P Ricky Botalico, P Mike Stanton.

Key Additions: Mgr. Willie Randolph, P Pedro Martinez, CF Carlos Beltran, IB Doug Mientiewicz, INF Miguel Cairo, UT Chris Woodward, P Dae-Sung Koo, P Kaz Ishii, P Mike Matthews, UT Marlon Anderson, C Ramon Castro.

Key player: Jose Reyes. If he stays healthy, he’s one of those special players that make a team a lot better. If he puts up .310, with 35 stolen bases.